Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
301 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast challenges are mainly rain chances and temperatures
through the week. Model differences in surface features and
resulting precipitation coverage leading to less than average
confidence in rain chances.

Forecast area remains under southwest flow aloft with upper low
camped over Sask. Next wave rotating around upper low will swing
into the area later tonight. Drier air has moved into the region
behind departing system with precipitable h20 values .75 inch or
below. With wave and associated weak surface low over the region
cannot rule out some spotty pcpn so have kept low pops going.
minimum temperatures not as mild as last night but still above

As wave rotates northward any pcpn chances should be limited to
the north. With less than ideal agreement between models will keep
pops low. Temperatures will hinge on clouds but with warm column
in place temperatures could get fairly mild.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Better chances for more organized rainfall will be Wednesday into
Wednesday night as upper low begins to propagate eastward into
the fa. Will see a deeper surface low lifting northward into the
area providing more favorable low level forcing. Just where this
low sets up will determine best potential for pcpn but at this
point guidance not in very good agreement.

Surface low lifts into Mb/Ontario Thursday which should lessen
pcpn chances. With clouds and cooler column temperatures will be
much closer to seasonal averages.

Friday to Monday...Active pattern persists for the extended time
frame into the unofficial start of summer...Memorial Weekend. Even
with CHC POPs in every period this will not be a 3 or 4 day rain
event. 500mb southwest flow will bring short wave pieces of energy
to interact with diurnally present instability as PWats remain
around an inch or more through the period. Timing of waves
coincident with peak heating would bring the most wide spread
rains...current trajectories indicate friday night into saturday
morning to be highest CHC of PCPN over the weekend. Max and min
temps right in line with normal for the end of May...mid 70s and mid


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR today with winds generally from the west and lessening during
the day. BJI will see a narrow window this afternoon with CHC of


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.