Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

EXTENDED FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR ON THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AS FOG SLOWER TO LIFT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE
TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW
SPOTS INCLUDING BELTRAMI...HUBBARD...WADENA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FOG STILL IN PLACE DETROIT LAKES NORTH THROUGH MAHNOMEN TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE
ONLY RECENTLY WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM AND KEPT THEM OUT AS WEBCAMS
INDICATE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THAT AREA WITH NO FOG AT OTTERTAIL
MN DOT SITE. ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR AND OBS BAUDETTE
TO NR BEMIDJI TO WEST OF WADENA.  ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS THRU 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

500 MB TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLEARED
OUT OF PARTS OF NW MN (ROX-FSE-PKD-DTL AREA) AND WITH BRIEF
CLEARING AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG QUICKLY FORMED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TIL 14Z FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST MN (HCO-CKN-DTL-ADC AND POINTS EAST) DUE TO
WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FOG. WITH LIGHT WIND DONT FORSEE IMPROVEMENT TIL
AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS THAT NEVER CLEARED OUT SUCH AS BAUDETTE-LAKE
OF THE WOODS HAVENT SEEN FOG AND DIDNT INCLUDE THEM. ALSO WATCHING
TO SEE IF ANY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A BIT WEST TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. CROOKSTON-HALLOCK-ADA HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE AND SO
FAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREAS (GFK-FAR) HAS BEEN OK. BUT
ALWAYS LEERY OF THAT HOUR RIGHT AT SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK IN THE EAST GIVING WAY TO
DIURNAL CU AS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. KEPT VERY LOW POP IN FAR
EAST THIS AFTN BUT 00Z MODELS RUNS SEEM A BIT QUICKER IN LIFTING
COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH EAST AND SO SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE VERY LIMITED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CU RRV AND ERN ND BUT QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL PUT
A CAP ON COVERAGE.

QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST BUT AIRMASS
IN ERN ND WHICH WILL BE OVER NRN MN HASNT PRODUCED MUCH FOG SO MAY
BE OK TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEXT SHORT MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT INCR CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A DECENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST FCST AREA WED LATE AFTN SO KEPT POPS AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF TIL WED NIGHT. PRETTY
STRONG MOISTURE SURGE AHD OF SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO ERN ND/NW MN ON
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER DOES SEEM AS IF MAIN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE IS MORE TIED
TO SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN 06Z PERIOD AND MODELS DO PICK
UP ON POTENTIALLY TWO COMPLEXES. ONE IN AREA OF 850 MB WIND
CONVERGENCE AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL-NE ND-SRN MANITOBA. LIKELY POPS EITHER WAY SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. MAIN RAIN CHANCES MOVE THRU NW MN THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTN. WENT WITH HPC QPF
WHICH HAS AVERAGE OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE AREA. LIKELY HIGHER
AMTS BUT THIS ALL HINGES OF COURSE ON TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS POOR DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE
MID/UPPER FLOW AT LEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...SO DO HAVE SOME POPS IN MOST PERIODS AT THIS POINT. THE
GEM/GFS POINT TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHARPLY COOLER AIR
MASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 5C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEMIDJI AREA FOG IS LIFTING AND PER WEBCAMS EXPECT VSBY AT BJI
AIRPORT TO IMPROVE GREATLY THROUGH 13Z-14Z TO P6SM. LOW CLOUD CIGS
WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO IFR REGARDLESS. TVF SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT THRU 14Z. HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WITH CIGS IS IN QUESTION BUT HAVE RISING CIGS 16Z AND AFTER BUT
LIKELY STILL IN HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. GFK-FAR-DVL IN LITTLE TO NO FOG AND EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED VFR CU THIS AFTN. ALL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME FOG IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT AT THE PRESENT NOT INCLUDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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