Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 271426
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE 80S IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH COOLER
TEMPS HERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY...ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY DAYTIME
HIGHS)...AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND MOST GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WITH THE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM
NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO HALLOCK BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE SREF HANDLED MAX
TEMPS BEST YESTERDAY...AND WILL USE FOR GUIDANCE TODAY (MAX TEMPS
MID 80S IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN). SUNDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY
WITH A LARGE GRADIENT EXPECTED (LIKELY NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NW FA
TO NEAR 80F ACROSS THE SE FA).

MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS...NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE CONFINED
LIKELY POPS TO THIS AREA. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY COULD ENHANCE
RAIN RATES AND POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL. QPF TOTALS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EXPECTED TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES...POTENTIALLY MORE IF STRONGER RAIN BANDS SET UP (WHICH
APPEARS POSSIBLE). WEAKER FORCING TO THE SOUTH LEADING TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. 00Z MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE...AND MUCH OF MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS PERIOD WITH A SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. FLOW CONSOLIDATES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS IS
THE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF.

SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AND WED
AND THEN IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

HIGH TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS WERE LOWERED ABOUT THREE DEGREES FOR FRI COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE NO CIGS...AND VFR CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
CANADA...SWITCHING WINDS TO NORTH AND BRINGING IN VFR CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.