Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Water vapor loop indicated the upper level low was located
over the SD/ND/MN border with the upper level jet on the
east side of the trough. Dry slot was located over much of
MN, IA and WI. However some cooling was noted over northwest
MN. Radar indicated narrow bands of precip was moving north
over northwest MN. Otherwise main deformation zone was over
much of eastern ND and far northwest MN and wraps into
eastern SD. Expect deformation zone to remain about in the
same place for the day and weaken Sun night.

Vort lobe was located over western IA and will rotate
around upper low on Mon. System will produce light precip
for Mon and Mon night over the eastern/northeastern zones.
Upper low will open up and shift east of the area by Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Wednesday to next Saturday night will begin with 500mb ridging
between departing trough over the Great Lakes and the next wave
crossing the Northern Rockies. This will bring southwest flow to the
area and allow temperatures to warm into the low 70s for daytime
highs through the period. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and the
first half of Thursday before the lead short wave brings a SFC
trough across the area within the southwesterly flow aloft. Friday
and Saturday will continue to see precip chances with Pwats in the
three quarters to one inch range. Placement and timing will depend
on the position of the vort maxes pinwheeling around the upper low.
Model guidance keep the upper low center north of the International
border and with it the most persistent lift or more predictable
steady rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Expect widespread MVFR conditions in low clouds and light rain
across most of eastern ND and northern MN during the overnight...
with areas of IFR CIGs mainly along and south of a Jamestown to
Fargo to Bemidji line. VFR conditions should persist west of DVL
into northcentral ND.

A low pressure center should lift from KMSP through KDLH by 18z on
Sunday...with mainly MVFR conditions in low clouds and light rain
persisting across the Red River Valley and northwest through
westcentral MN into midafternoon. Conditions will slowly improve
from the west after 21z.




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