Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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248
FXUS63 KFGF 212026
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Main impacts upcoming will be storms tomorrow evening through the
overnight and fire weather tomorrow. Models continue in pretty
good agreement with timing of boundary and will use blend.

Not much of an increase in low level moisture tonight however
expect more mixing which will hold temperatures up warmer than
last night.

Brunt of tomorrow looks dry across the forecast area. Cold front
still in the western dakotas late in the afternoon so convective
initiation should be west of the forecast area. Maintained some
low pops over the far west late in the afternoon in case. Clouds
will have an impact on temperatures however with warmer start max
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer if we get enough sun.
Winds will be stronger and with the far east last to get any
increase in low level moisture will have some fire weather
concerns this area. See fire weather discussion below for details.

Convection will propagate east tomorrow night ahead of approaching
cold front. precipitable h20 values climb to 1-1.5 inches and Convective
parameters sufficient that could see a few severe storms later in
the evening from the valley west. Convection should be maintained
overnight aided by 40-50 low level jet. Temperatures will be mild
as thermal ridge axis shifts over the fa overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Current model guidance has convection over valley region early
Monday continuing the propagate east during the day so adjusted
pops accordingly. Still enough instability for T during the day.
Column does not cool off much however with expected cloud cover
max values may be a bit cooler especially over the east with pcpn.

Lingering rain should exit the east during the early evening with
the remainder of the night dry.

With FA in established sw flow aloft models indicating boundary
approaching Tuesday so maintain some low pops although models
differ on boundary position.

The mid to late week period looks to remain unsettled... as model
guidance maintains a deep trof in western North America and a 4
corners cutoff low...with unstable southwest flow aloft over the
Northern Plains states through at least Friday. Both GFS and ECMWF
guidance suggest widespread cloud cover resulting in slightly cooler
than average temperatures... and scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the area both Wednesday and Thursday.

Guidance appears to be split... as is the large scale flow
pattern... from Friday into Saturday. Both the GFS and ECWMF start
the move a strong shrtwv trof through the 4 corners low... and into
the central high plains by saturday. GFS is a bit further south
than the ECMWF in its solution on Saturday... keeping the NP states a
bit drier. Current model blend keep the southern two-thirds of the
CWA as more likely to see scattered showers and thunderstorms from
late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

An h5 upper ridge aloft and surface high pressure pushing through
eastern MN attm will help to keep fair skies and light southerly
winds across northwest through central MN today and tonight. Through
eastern ND and the Red River Valley... expect VFR conditions with
few cumulus and gusty southerly winds today along with increasing
moderate southerly blayer flow tonight into forenoon sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Issued a Fire Weather Watch for Lake of the Woods south through
Hubbard Counties for Sunday afternoon. Southerly winds will
increase on Sunday and become gusty, with 30+ kts in the mixed
layer. While the southerly flow will help to gradually increase
moisture, the increase in moisture may occur a bit later across
parts of northwestern Minnesota, allowing RH to possibly drop down
to as low as 20 to 25 percent by Sunday afternoon. Should RH fall
to this level over sections of northwestern Minnesota, critical
conditions may develop given the expected winds.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for MNZ006-009-017-024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Gust/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker
FIRE WEATHER...Makowski



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