000
FXUS63 KFGF 281441
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
941 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The stubborn upper low over southern Lake Michigan should continue
to move slowly southeastward through the day, gradually lessening
its influence on the Northern Plains with ridging building into
the region. No substantial forecast changes are warranted right
now, with the area of low clouds/fog extending from the Devils
Lake Basin southward into the James River Valley expected to
erode, while some erosion of the more expansive cloud shield
extending across much of northwestern Minnesota into the Red River
Valley is expected through the day. Some of the short term
guidance is slower in bringing clearing into northwest Minnesota
this afternoon/evening. As a result, adjustments to sky cover be
needed through the day.

UPDATE
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Main update was to adjust sky grids early this morning to account
for the cloud deck across the east now sneaking into the southern
Red River Valley. Also added some patchy fog in the extreme
northwest where visibilities have dropped just west of the cloud
deck across the Devils Lake basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The main challenge early today will be two separate cloud
decks...one impacting the far western fringe of the forecast area
and another in the far east. Low level RH profiles suggest the
western deck will move slightly westward and diminish by early
afternoon. The eastern area of clouds is more likely to persist as
an upper low across continues to spin across the Great Lakes.
Generally uniform high temperatures across the region with readings
in the upper 50s/near 60 where the clouds take a bit longer to clear
out across the east while reaching the low 60s elsewhere.

Clouds should slowly clear in the east by evening as the low dips
southward and ridging builds into the Dakotas. Lows should be right
around normal values (low 40s) even with surface high pressure
passing near the international border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Thursday-Friday...Dry and quiet conditions are expected for the end
of the work week as upper ridging continues across the central
CONUS. Increasingly breezy southeast winds with the surface high
pulling away from the area will contribute to temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday and possibly into the low 70s
for Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday...Dry initially transitioning to a more active
weather pattern. Models are in good agreement with this scenario,
but differ on timing. Upper ridging will transition to southwest
flow aloft as a deep trough approaches from the west. The potential
will exist for an inch or two of rainfall (extending into mid-week),
although ensemble spread is large and confidence with details is
quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

As of issuance time, two separate MVFR cloud decks were affecting
the area...one near KDVL and another just east of the Red River
Valley currently impacting KTVF and KBJI. The western deck is
slowly beginning to erode which should result in mostly clear
skies by late morning. The eastern deck is a little trickier as
its western edge is currently trying to sneak into KFAR. Models do
show this beginning to slowly erode and shift eastward after 14z.
Therefore, MVFR ceilings could hang on at KBJI through the
afternoon but should return to VFR by this evening.

Otherwise, fairly light winds under 10 kts with no visibility
restrictions expected throughout the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Lee/TG
AVIATION...Lee