000
FXUS63 KFGF 231550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...UPDATES TO SKY
COVER WITH STRUTS DECK IN NW MN TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO MAX
TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MID TO UPR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE NEAR TERM ZR POTENTIAL THEN
TEMPERATURES AND WEEKEND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS COMING INTO PRETTY
CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN IN PERSISTENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING. BAND OF -RA/ZR MAINLY ACROSS
SE THIRD OF FA. BY SUNRISE EXPECT THIS TO BE CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS
BORDER AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING WITH DOT INDICATING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING OVER SE ND. BEST RETURNS ACROSS FAR SE ND INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN AND BASED ON SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEED AN ADVISORY
THIS AREA. FATHER NORTH UNTREATED ROADS STILL SLICK BUT WITH
CLEARING WILL CANCEL ADVISORY.

ANY RESIDUAL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR FA BY MID MORNING AS WAVE EXITS.
WILL BE SEEING VERY MILD START MOST AREAS AND WHILE COLUMN DOES
COOL WE SHOULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DROP THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY AFFECTING THE FAR
NE . OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY
IT WILL CONTINUE VERY MILD.

STRONGER WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FA LATER ON SATURDAY FOR
INCREASING AFTERNOON PCPN CHANCES. COULD SEE A MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN
FRINGES WITH MAINLY SNOW ELSEWHERE. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHT WARMING WITH MOST AREAS GETTING TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SURFACE LOW TRACK LOOKS TO BISECT THE FA FROM NW-SE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
LOW TRACK. AT THIS POINT LOOKING AT GENERAL 1-3 WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNT POSSIBLE.

SNOW WILL BE ENDING FROM N-S SUNDAY WITH ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO SE FA DURING THE AM. WITH COOLING COLUMN
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS MILD BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A RETURN FOR SNOW
CHANCES OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FA.

BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH MON
AND WED.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOMES A
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH EACH RUN BUT THE GFS HAS
BEEN TRENDING FASTER BUT LESS SO THAN THE ECMWF.

AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ON MON OVER EASTERN ND AND WILL TRIM BACK
POPS WED NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST ND. HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TWO
TO FOUR DEGREES FOR MON COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TUE THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG MN/INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP SE TODAY
AFFECTING TVF AND BJI TAF SITES. GFK WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE.
REMAINDER OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR GOOD PART OF THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER