000
FXUS63 KFGF 080438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

DROPPED POPS OFF A LITTLE QUICKER ACROSS THE NORTH AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE SE FA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS
ACTING IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY COLD
POOL SO SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. MADE
SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

ONE SHORT WAVE WAS OVER BISMARCK AREA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE
UPSTREAM ONE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. THE UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE HAS A COLD AIR POCKET AT 500 MB AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE SCATTERED STORMS INTO
THE EVENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. TIMING OF THE BEST COLD AIR
ALOFT IS 00Z-06Z OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY OVER NRN VALLEY INTO NW
MN. BISMARCK SHORT WAVE MAIN IMPACTS SRN VALLEY/SD/CNTRL MN. THESE
TWO SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU DARK BEFORE THINGS DISSIPATE. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN LEADS TO LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAILERS. BUT
BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK SO STORM CORES THEMSELVES SHOULD BE
SHORT LASTING. WILL END PCPN CHANCES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND KEEP IT
DRY THRU TUESDAY 15Z. THEREAFTER ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE COULD GENERATE A MORE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TUESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTN. THOUGH SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE
MUCH LESS CHANCE TOMORROW VS TODAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY GIVE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT
TEMPS...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM WITH LOW CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTN FOR
MAINLY SE ND AS 850 MB MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE RETROGRADES OVER
WESTERN CANADA AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SETTLES INTO HUDSON
BAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS A WEAKER BUT A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR WITH LOW LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH 12Z SUN THEN DIVERGE
THEREAFTER WITH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION
WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED BY ONE DEGREE FOR FRI AND SAT....ONE TO
FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND 9 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MON FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN. SIMILARLY LOW TEMPS WERE DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR SAT
AND SUN MORN...AND 3 OR 4 DEGREES FOR MON MORN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

CIGS/VSBY VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA (BJI) UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHRA HOWEVER SHOULD NOT AFFECT CIGS/VSBY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER