Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
257 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main forecast challenge is convection from now through early
evening, and mainly the severe weather potential. Only one area
of convection is still holding together from earlier today, and
that area is moving up into the Lake of the Woods to Bemidji
corridor. On its current pace it should exit the FA by 5 pm. The
upstream cold front has moved into central ND, with some gusty
west-nw winds behind it. Main question remains whether any
convection can fire between the departing convection over the NE
FA and the eastward advancing cold front.

This area has been worked over pretty well today, and so far any
small cells that have tried to form have not held together.
Therefore confidence is pretty low that anything will re-fire over
this area late this afternoon into the early evening. Nice drying
is evident on water vapor imagery moving into eastern ND, however
there are some MVFR ceilings along the cold front. So there will
be SCT-BKN clouds around until the cold front passes, then skies
should clear. There may be some gusty west winds behind the front,
mainly over the Devils Lake to Valley City corridor for a few
hours prior to sunset. Sunday should be a dry day with gusty west-
nw winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Sunday night and Monday...Northwesterly flow aloft will set up
behind the departing upper wave, with flow becoming more zonal
during the day on Monday. Surface high pressure will be building
into the area and other than a few lingering showers Sunday evening,
the region should get a respite from precipitation. Temps should
return to above normal values in the mid to upper 80s for Monday.

Monday night through Saturday...The brief tranquil period will come
to an end Monday night as the next shortwave trough begins to move
into the area. Zonal flow will become more northwesterly through the
work week as various weak shortwaves dig down into the upper
midwest. Exact timing and placement of these shortwaves is
impossible at this point so will continue to keep low POPs going
through most of the week. There should be a drying trend towards the
end of the period as the upper ridge axis shifts further east. Temps
will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the end of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Tried to show most of the tstm activity with the current echoes
along the Red River Valley, which should only be an hour or two
in duration. After this moves through, the questions begin. There
is supposed to be more development as the cold front from KBIS to
KMOT moves through late this afternoon into early evening.
However, there is very limited instability ahead of the front to
the area behind the current convection along the Red River Valley.
Therefore will only mention VCTS for now and update TAFs with more
definition if it occurs. After the cold front moves through,
expect clearing skies and west winds. These west-NW winds could
become a little gusty by mid Sunday morning.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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