000
FXUS63 KFGF 281900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LET DENSE FOG ADV EXPIRE AT NOON AFTER COORD WITH BISMARCK. STILL
AREAS OF FOG AROUND AND SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
MAINTAIN THIS IN THE GRIDS. CHC OF ANY -SN APPEARS LOW AS MOISTURE
IS LOW LEVELS AND NOT ENOUGH IN THE ICE LAYER FOR SNOWFLAKES.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL MAINTAIN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS PARAMETER TO THE
AVIATION FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THESE IMPROVEMENT
DETAILS IS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE