Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES



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