000
FXUS63 KFGF 112346
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE
BUT IT HAS BEEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

TIME RUNNING OUT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
BOUNDARY HAS EXITED THE NE FA LEAVING THE FAR SE IN PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. SOME CAPPING REMAINS WITH FAVORED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON THE SE FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LEAVING
THE EVENING PCPN FREE. FARTHER WEST A NARROW BAND OF WEAK
CONVECTION OVER SW-S CENTRAL ND ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET. AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS EAST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN
WORK INTO THE SW FA LATER TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. COLUMN COOLS MODESTLY TONIGHT IN WAKE OF
BOUNDARY AND WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER.

SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH OTHERWISE NO RAIN
EXPECTED BRUNT OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH NOSES IN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLUMN COOLER HOWEVER
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE.

MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW SWINGING
THROUGH ND/CANADIAN BORDER AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN FA BY EVENING
DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS
AND JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS DURING THE EVENING. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE DROPPING
BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH FA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FA. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH NORTHERN AREAS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S.

MONDAY WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
LOWER 60S. WITH MOIST LAYER AND LOW CONVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY...BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY LATE
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT FLATTENS THE UPPER
RIDGE BY FRIDAY BRINGING THUNDER CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS STICKS WITH
A STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER/DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP ABOVE 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR