000
FXUS63 KFGF 121138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AS EXPECTED.
HAVE KEPT SOME FLURRIES IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN RRV VALLEY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK. ALSO BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT 15Z WITH BOTH THE RAP/SREF INDICATING
SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OF MANITOBA. ALL MODELS INDICATE SNOW
REMAINING VERY LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS TEMP TRENDS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AIDED BY 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND
FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO STREAK SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD EXIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE
VALLEY...AND REMAIN COOLEST TO THE EAST. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP ALL
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. THE GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRIER LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THUS ARE DRIER. ADDED SOME
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TO THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IF THE PRECIP BAND DEVELOPS MORE ROBUSTLY AS THE
AMERICAN MODELS SUGGEST. EITHER WAY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PUSH INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB. WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF MUCH...AND MAY REMAIN STEADY.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON THURSDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST MN. WHILE SOME COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS...STILL EXPECT MILD TEMPS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AS WE HAVE SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST
NEAR THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN.
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD.

TEMPS SHOULD BE COOL DOWN SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY...BUT STAY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH
DURING THE DAY HELPING TO BRING DOWN COOLER AIR AND TURNING WINDS
NORTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD
FRONT...BUT AGAIN THIS WOULD BE VERY MINOR.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BUT THEN CONSENSUS RAPIDLY DECREASES AS THERE IS
SOME STRUGGLE TO GET A HANDLE ON A PATTERN CHANGE. THE WEEKEND WILL
SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER A
SFC HIGH...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICK UP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT SOME
PRECIP ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY
SO KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION ON HOW THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING IN IS HANDLED...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS A SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH AND THUS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
WHAT ALLBLEND GIVES US AS FAR AS SOME 20-40 POPS AND HIGHS NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK AFFECTING ALL BUT KBJI CURRENTLY WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY AFFECT
PRIMARILY KGFK/KTVF/KBJI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH COULD
LOWER VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KBJI/KTVF...BUT SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT.
CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT SPEEDS UP TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/JR
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI