


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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866 FXUS63 KFGF 101447 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 947 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible in parts of northeast North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota late thursday afternoon and night, with a risk level of 1 out of 5. - Severe storms possible parts of northwest and west central Minnesota Friday afternoon, with a risk level 1 out of 5. - Heat risk rises into moderate range this afternoon the heat indices mid to upper 90s within the Red River valley. && .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Still seeing showers and a few thunderstorms across northwestern MN and the northern Red River Valley. In addition, some cumulus continues to develop in the Devils Lake Basin. Adjusted POPs a bit further up across the area along and north of Highway 2, and then should see a little bit of a break before additional storms develop this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 712 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Few remaining high based showers in Otter Tail and Wadena counties and a few in the far northern RRV. Updated pops for this as earlier fcst had no pops yet in the far north valley or far northwest MN. Otherwise scattering of mid clouds and some mid level CU with a few spotty showers across central ND. Latest HRRR and RRFS dont have much going on thru 03z. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...Synopsis... Continued high uncertainty in regards to convective trends today into tonight and Friday. All deals with position of a weak front and timing it as it moves southeast thru the area. And if this front can break a cap of warmer 850-700 mb air that will b in place thru Thursday evening. System moves east Friday as upper trough moves through but this trough may aid in developing a few severe storms in northeast into central and southern Minnesota Friday afternoon, with SPC marginal risk for severe in our far east and southeast fcst area. Weekend mainly dry, after any early showers Saturday around Lake of the Woods as the upper wave departs. Next system with chance for showers/t-storms late Monday into Tuesday. ...Severe storm potential for late today and night... Another very uncertain outlook in regards to convection potential today and location, timing, intensity. SPC has really cut back on severe messaging and now has roughly the NW 1/2 fcst area in level 1 out of 5 risk. Issue is location of weak sfc boundary and airmass ahead of it. Sfc boundary will remain to our north and west thru 00z Fri...with location from HRRR looking like near south end of Lake Winnipeg to Winnipeg region into central ND. Airmass ahead of covering our area is generally capped, though weakly, with 700 mb temps 11C range along with 850 mb thermal ridge into the RRV. Cannot rule out of course some convection in our northwest fcst area closer to any boundary in the aftn. Not worthy for more than a 20 or 30 pop far north valley southwest toward Jamestown or Bismarck. Best chances for surface based convection will probably be in southern Manitoba particularly around south end of Lake Winnipeg into Winnipeg area as looks like an area of maximized sfc CAPE and enough cooling at 700 mb temps by 00z (+8C) to generate potential storms. Sfc boundary likely to move southeast thru most areas overnight tonight and be roughly Baudette to Wahpeton Friday morning. Highly uncertain if convection can continue near the sfc boundary into the night. Mixed signals on CAMs, but most do not. ...Severe storm potential Friday afternoon... Depending on where front it Friday afternoon, enough instability (over 2500 j/kg) near it and with lower 700 mb temps as the 500 mb short wave moves into S Manitoba in the aftn, storms may have an easier time developing. 0-6 km shear remains rather weak...but a few severe storms would I think be possible along the boundary as storms form. Now boundary may be farther east out of the area or in our far southeast fcst area in the aftn. That remains to be seen. ...Heat today... Temps will reach upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices about as fcst previously in the upper 80s to upper 90s...highest in the valley. Local heat indices using dew points from AWOS`s near crops will be higher. Wet bulb globe temps forecast to be in the low 80s in the RRV and E ND. Heat indices forecast do not meet advisory criteria so no headlines. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 712 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR today with high based CU at or above 8000 ft agl. Few showers or a t-storm around the region, but coverage and intensity remain very uncertain. It is looking like majority of the area to be storm free at least daytime today. Winds southerly 8 to 15 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/JR DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle