000
FXUS63 KFGF 041815
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1215 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE AS SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CU UP
THROUGHOUT THE FA. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE A JUST COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. WIND
CHILL VALUES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY PRETTY SPOTTY HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINTING AT SOME SC DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BLO ZERO. IF SO EVEN WITH WARMER START THAN EXPECTED
SINGLE DIGITS MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE FA THIS EVENING AND WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICK. AS HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH
TOWARDS MORNING RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAY LEVEL OFF
TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL BE COLD NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED W
CHILL HEADLINES AGAIN...HOPEFULLY ONE OF THE LAST.

WARMUP STARTS THURSDAY WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY WIND AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LONE MODEL WITH QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY REACH OR EXCEED AVERAGES ON FRIDAY
WITH THAWING READINGS POSSIBLE.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE DROPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SO INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE RETURN
TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO MORE OF WEST-NW FLOW. WILL BE DEALING WITH TRADITIONAL
SNOW MELT ISSUES LIKE FOG/WIND SPEEDS/WIND DIRECTIONS WHICH ALWAYS
HAVE BIG EFFECTS ON DAY TO DAY TEMPS AND ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT
THIS FAR OUT. PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY WEAK BUT REMAIN BEST SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN SFC LOW STAYS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

DAYTIME MVFR CU WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE VALLEY SITES THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WINDS ABOVE 12 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG