000
FXUS63 KFGF 280311
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1011 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Dropped frost advisory for western fcst area. Dew points continue
to climb into the lower 40s over eastern ND and one area of clouds
advecting in pretty far west and should keep GFK and FAR much
milder tonight than advertised. Overall all sites 37 and higher in
western fcst area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

500mb ridging and SFC high pressure continue to push into and
over the FA, the stacked low pressure system is slowing moving SE
over the Great Lakes with the clear cloudy line bisecting the FA
from near Pembina to Grand Forks to Elbow Lake. With it the impactful
weather concerns are showers in the east for the rest of the
afternoon, clouds and frost potential overnight. Frost advisory
is in effect for the western areas where best cooling conditions
are more likely to set up, clear skies light winds and low 30 dew
points. Across the valley and NW MN conditions less certain with
model RHs fields suggesting more clouds overnight and dewpoints
have held in the low to mid 40s. Visible satellite imagery does
show some cellular nature to the CU field in Manitoba and Ontario
so do expect some break in the overcast to occur overnight.
Wednesday temps rebound into the 60s with full sun after some
morning CU flatten out in the early afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Quiet fall weather is expected late this week through the weekend
as the cut-off low continues to slowly meander towards the Ohio
Valley and ridging remains over the north central US. The
GFS/ECMWF bring a weak disturbance into the area towards
Friday/Friday Night, but with a dry airmass in place, kept the
area mostly free from precip through Sunday. Temps through the
weekend will remain near to above average with highs reaching the
60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s.

The upper level flow will become more southwesterly early next week
with 12Z deterministic runs showing a shortwave trough ejecting into
the Plains during this time. While this pattern favors increasing
chances for precip early next week, model solutions vary on the
evolution of the upper trough into the Plains with timing also a
question given the downstream ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Issue will be clearing trends in NW MN. MVFR deeck BJI area and
likely to stay that way this evening until rising a bit into low
VFR range overnight into Wednesday morning. TVF MVFR cigs as well
but should rise and gradually scatter out late tonight. GFK site
right on the edge of clouds this evening. Fargo and DVL mainly
clear.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Riddle