Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Temperatures approaching minimums however thickening clouds and
increased mixing should level off temperatures. Minor temperature
adjustments otherwise forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

No changes at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday morning)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Little impact weatherwise this evening and overnight with mostly
clear skies giving way to increasing clouds in the south towards
morning. Fog potential overnight appears to be limited to NE ND
where the best decoupling and possible inversion can set up.
Elsewhere the arrival of increasing clouds and steady south
southeast winds that will develop in response to approaching short
wave and tightening pressure gradient. Southerly 850mb LLJ
increasing west to east overnight from 20 to 30kts will begin
streaming moisture northward. Nonetheless will keep forecast dry
through 7am.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Main challenge throughout the period will be the rainfall event
beginning on Tuesday and lingering into Wednesday morning.

The period begins with the area between two strong upper level
systems...a deep trough across the New England coast and an even
stronger upper low spinning near the Pacific Northwest. Broad upper
ridging across the central part of the CONUS will quickly flatten as
several waves eject out of the Pacific low towards the Northern
Plains. Still looks like early Tuesday will be dry with
precipitation chances increasing throughout the afternoon. The
strongest/most prominent wave and associated forcing looks to sweep
through the southern portion of the forecast area Tuesday evening
and into early Wednesday. This lines up well with the consensus
model QPF and precipitable water values nearing an inch hitting the
southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota the hardest.
Additionally, GEFS QPF plumes for KFAR/KPKD continue to show decent
agreement in QPF amounts of at least 0.50 inch with confidence
decreasing as you move northward. Probabilities for even higher
amounts increase quickly just south of the forecast area so any
shift in the area of greatest forcing will need to be watched and
QPF adjusted accordingly.

Upper ridging will then return for Wednesday night and Thursday
before models bring another wave through the area. At this point,
the GFS and ECMWF differ greatly on the timing and location (GFS
bringing precipitation back through on Friday across the north and
ECMWF not until Saturday across the south) so confidence is low on
any details.

Temperatures throughout the period look to generally be around
seasonal norms except for a bit milder Tuesday night with the
associated rainfall event. Low temperatures near the freezing mark
later in the period might bring a few snowflakes with any additional


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions expected overnight. Lowering CIGS from south to
north from late morning on as -ra spreads north.




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