000
FXUS63 KFGF 230242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING INTO THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ECHOES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD BUT STRONGER SHOWERS ARE SEEN FURTHER
SOUTH AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME QPF INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. WENT DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WITH AN
ISOLATED MENTION AROUND MIDNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS AND WINDS STILL SEEM ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT NOTHING BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN ON KABR AND SFC OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITH CIGS OF AROUND 4000-7000 FT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND RAIN SLIGHTLY LATER
IN THE MORNING. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO KDVL AS THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS IN AREAS WITH
RAIN. THE STEADY RAIN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. THE BAND WILL CLEAR OUT OF KFAR AND KDVL BY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW WITH MORE PREVAILING RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...JR