


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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652 FXUS63 KFGF 021159 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms possible southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota late this afternoon. 1 out of 5 severe risk. - Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday, July 4th, along with the potential for heavy rain in some areas during the evening and overnight hours. - Heat indices approach 100 in the Red River valley Friday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Mid level showers associated with 500 mb short wave extends from Walhalla ND to Bemidji. Lightning is diminishing so just showers. Back edge of the mid shower development band is Walhalla ND at 1130z. This shower band will move southeast and keep showers within a narrow band between Roseau and Thief River Falls to Red Lake MN thru mid morning. Updated pops a bit for this slightly longer time before it ends. No changes to afternoon pops in SE ND or WC MN. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...Synopsis... Early July pattern with numerous short waves moving thru the Canadian prairies and northern US and these combined with instability will bring periodic chances for thunderstorms into next week. The strongest signal for potential severe weather and heavy rainfall is for Independence Day late afternoon and night. ...Isolated thunderstorms today... 500 mb wave that has been well advertised by models moving into northwest MN at 08z. Area of convection with it, below severe limits. Several weaker short waves upstream though into Saskatchewan and seeing mid level CU and a few t-storms with these as well. So will have mention of t-storms far NE ND into NW MN thru mid morning, may need to extend thru noon. No severe weather anticipated. This wave is pushing a weak wind shift southward with a north wind 5-10 kts anticipated to push into southeast ND and west central MN this aftn. Late aftn, sfc CAPE over 2000 j/kg in SE ND and west central MN. Forcing is weak with a wind shift boundary in place with light south wind south of the front and light north wind north of it. Looks to be from around Park Rapids to near Fargo. A few of the CAMs and the 06z NAM 3km are indicating isolated convection forming along the boundary 21z period and moving southeast. Most guidance due to isolated coverage keep pops well blo 15 pct so coord with ABR and MPX and hand drew in 20 pops for a few storms near this boundary. Ended pops at 00z but may be needed to go a bit longer. Bulk shear in the 25-35 kts may allow updrafts to grow enough to support hail to 1 inch and also with high cloud bases brief strong wind gusts psbl. Coverage is isolated. Thursday will bring much more humid conditions as dew pts increase to around 70 in SE ND and west central MN by late aftn. Could be higher, those were NBM values. 850 mb/700 mb warm advection Thu aftn and evening will send a warm 14C airmass at 700 mb into the area. Elevated convfection does look likely western ND Thursday late day and evening. Signs point to a complex of storms moving northeast into southern Manitoba from northwest ND Thu night on west edge of 45 kt low level jet and west edge of warm mid level airmass. SPC has day 2 marginal for severe just west of the fcst area but something to watch as wouldnt be suprised to see strong storms skirt our northwest fcst area Thursday overnight. ...Friday severe threat and heavy rain potential... What happens Thursday night will likely determine where any sfc boundary will be located for Friday. Pops for Friday in the fcst are likely too broad brushed, as all of Friday will not be stormy. Best thoughts is that a surface bounday will be in central ND midday and move east and lie from Cavalier to Carrington around 21z and near Roseau-Grand Forks-Jamestown 00z Sat. Storms will fire along the boundary as along the boundary 0-6 km bulk shear will be 30-35 kts and sfc CAPE well over 2000 j/kg but CIN values will be several hundred. So likely not breaking cap until right along boundary or just west. Storms will move east thru the area Friday evening and night. Heavy rain potential is high due to PWAT values of 2 inches. Severe storm threat depends on bulk shear and how strong capping is in warm sector ahead of it. But could see a line of storms move east associated with front with individual cells training northeast along the boundary as it moves through. - Heat on Friday... High temps upper 80s to low 90s and dew pts in the 70 will bring widespread heat index values of 93 to 98. Wet bubl globe temp in the high to extreme category and heat risk at level 3. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Light winds today...under 10 kts anticipated in all areas. Wind direction will be predominate north DVL, GFK, TVF and be south then north later today BJI and FAR. Isold tstm chance Fargo area late aftn, but otherwise a few showers around BJI and near TVF thru 15z. Winds turning southeast by 12z Thu. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle