717
FXUS63 KFGF 252334
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Made a few tweaks to POPs as rain over the northern valley is
expected to slowly move east this evening. Winds have decreased to
below advisory criteria so will let the headline go on schedule at
00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

500 mb low moving north-northeast and at mid afternoon located
northeast of Winnipeg. Water vapor loop showing drying aloft
wrapping around the upper low entering the Red River valley and
have seen winds pick up a tad more with 40+ mph gusts and
sustained winds 30 mph at a few sites around Grand Forks and
fargo. Until now the strongest winds have been Devils Lake to
Cooperstown to Valley City where winds are still in the 30 to 45
mph range.

Will allow wind advisory to go til 00z.

Also will hang on to higher pops late aftn/early eve into the
northern RRV and NW MN as another area of showers now dropping
back southeast around the upper low across northeastern ND.
Otherwise followed short range model blend approach to cloud and
precipitation which does slowly bring the showers to and end in
the nrn RRV this evening and Monday morning in the far eastern
fcst area. Clouds clearing eastward overnight but not clearing in
Bemidji-Baudette areas til Monday aftn. Lows in the low-mid 40s
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

After the 500mb low pushes into the Great Lakes, the Tuesday through
Friday period will feature ridging and dry weather. Normals for late
September are generally in the mid 60s for highs and low 40s for
lows. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little
above these readings. The pattern shifts to southwest flow aloft by
the upcoming weekend and the models show quite a bit more spread
into their solutions by then. Guidance threw in some low pcpn chances
and will keep them as is for now. At this point, any pcpn for the
weekend would be minimal. Weekend temperatures continue to look
similar in the near or just a bit above normal range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The western TAF sites have gone VFR, but IFR to low MVFR ceilings
hang on at KBJI and KTVF. The light rain has also brought
visibilities down mainly into the 2-5SM range although sometimes
down to 1SM. This will continue for the next few hours before we
see visibility consistently above 6SM and rain is less widespread
and more sporadic. Have VCSH mention at KTVF and KBJI until 06 to
07Z, KGFK and KFAR should see rain ending earlier, around 02Z.
KTVF should also see ceilings go to VFR at that time but the lower
clouds will hang on a bit longer until tomorrow morning for KBJI.
All sites should be VFR by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain
out of the northwest, losing gusts in the next few hours but still
fairly breezy at near 15kts. Winds will pick up again tomorrow
during the day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...JR