Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





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