000
FXUS63 KFGF 302322
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE UNTIL SAT
WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NORTH AND PROVIDES THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PCPN. CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN THOSE FROM THIS
MORNING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN OVER THE KDVL REGION BUT
WILL NOT MENTION AS ITS DURATION HAS BEEN SO SHORT THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS TO FIRE UP AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND
FADE AWAY DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SAME STORY FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA ON SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY KEEP MOST OF THIS PCPN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. GFS SEEMS TOO ROBUST WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A WAVE MOVING INTO THE N PLAINS AS
GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A BIT MORE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHER MODELS HAVE
AREA MORE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND FRONT
INTO ONTARIO AND AT LEAST NORTHEAST ND INTO NRN MN DRY. USED ALL
BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD AND KEPT ITS LOW THREAT FOR PRECIP ESP IN SE
ND/WCNTRL MN INTO NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL PATTERN ISNT A WET ONE
AND COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN GFS PORTRAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG