Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 092347
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS.  DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALONG WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A FEW SPOTS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG
A NICE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO TO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
THIS LINE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING LAKE BREEZES. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOW JUST EXITING EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY. OTHERWISE FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...WITH SKIES
BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THIS COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TYPICAL
RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CUMULUS FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE MORE STABLE LAKES. LATEST NAM AND GFS RUNS
SHOW THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE
COOLING OF THE EVENING...LEAVING THE REGION MAINLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
AGAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.

THESE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHTS BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR COOL SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES...WITH THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE...WHICH ALONG WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BRING A SUMMERY FEEL BACK TO THE AIR.

THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FURTHER AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN ISENTROPIC FLOW
COMMENCES AND WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE LIFTED...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO A BIT WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO
RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDES EASTWARD THROUGH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. PWATS RISE TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES AND A
CORRESPONDING THETA-E RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...NEARING 30
KNOTS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUCH THAT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
DEEPER POOL OF COLD AIR WILL BE LOCKED UP WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT THIS COOL AIR...LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WHICH MAY LIMIT THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
GROWING INTO DEEPER SEVERE STORMS.

AS LIFT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF LIFT. THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THIS WILL NOT BE CLEARED OUT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MID
WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER SUNDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

ON MONDAY WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPTICK IN MOISTURE...THOUGH PWATS
ONLY RISE UPWARDS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LIKELY THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN
PIECES...WITH EACH PIECE BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
ALOFT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES. UNDER THIS TROUGH THERE WILL
BE LOW END CHANCES/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE
COOL POOL OVERHEAD COLD BRING AN INSTABILITY SHOWER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK WILL FALL BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG A LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ZONE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FROM NEAR KBUF TO THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE SCT VFR LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH LOCAL IFR...AND SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW FOR A FEW
HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY ON THURSDAY LEAVING JUST SCT
CUMULUS IN MOST AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CUMULUS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG ANY
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT LOCAL IFR IN
RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




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