Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 141818
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the region tonight, bringing a
period of rain and possibly some thunderstorms to the Western
Southern Tier. High pressure will then ridge across the region,
with cool but fair weather late Friday through Saturday. A cold
front will move through Saturday night, which will be followed
by colder weather along with some rain or snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pleasant weather across the region early this afternoon, with
temperatures well into the 60s at many spots from I-90
southward. This is about to change, with radar showing the
leading edge of some showers just entering far Western NY. These
are developing along a stationary frontal boundary which extends
from west to east across the area. A convectively enhanced wave
of low pressure will track along this boundary, producing a
steady and at times moderate rainfall which will move across the
region this evening.

The steadiest rains will be just to the north of a 50 knot LLJ,
which will include Buffalo, Rochester, and areas north. Expect a
rather soaking rainfall this evening, where mesoscale guidance
shows a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain. South of
this, precipitation will be more convective in nature, with more
variable precipitation amounts. MUCAPE values up to around 200
J/Kg and upstream convection suggest a few thunderstorms are
possible across the Western Southern Tier through this evening.
Because of the strong wind fields aloft, there could be some
stronger storms to our south and west, however weak and elevated
instability will mitigate the severe weather risk in our area.

Winds shift to the north after the surface low moves by late
tonight, with precipitation diminishing and/or transitioning to
light upslope showers or drizzle. Lingering moisture may result
in patchy fog, especially in locations which upslope in this
flow.

Precipitation will taper off during the day Friday, as the low
moves further away, winds diminish, and drier air works in.
Clouds will linger much of the day. It`ll be cooler with highs
in the mid 40s to around 50, but this is still nearly 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quick moving shortwave ridge will scoot across the Lower Great
Lakes later Friday night through Saturday. This will provide our
forecast area with MAINLY fair dry weather to start St Patrick`s
weekend...but as we approach Saturday evening...a cold front
will approach from Lake Huron and Lower Michigan.

A robust shortwave rounding the base of an upstream longwave trough
will then push the strong cold front through the region Saturday
night. This will nearly guarantee that just about everyone will
experience some showers with the pcpn probably changing over to
some negligible wet snow for the higher terrain by daybreak.
QPF will be a tenth of an inch or less with any snow accums in
the higher terrain being limited to elevated or grassy surfaces.
Road temps will be ABOVE freezing so there will be little if
any chance that there will be any travel issues.

St Patrick`s Day will then be cloudy and GUARANTEED
CHILLIER...as colder air in the wake of the aforementioned front
will lead to H85 temps dropping to around -8c. This will not be
quite cold enough aloft to support realized instability over
the lakes...but in combination with additional shortwaves moving
through...there will be some lake enhanced rain showers around.
The bulk of the showers will be found through midday and also
mainly focused east-northeast of the lakes. It will be quite
breezy as well...courtesy of a 35- 40kt low level jet within a
cold advective pattern will produce a definite bite to the wind.
While conditions will be better than the past few years...those
attending St Patrick`s Day parades should prepare for the
chilly winds and possible nuisance pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A significant pattern shift to much more winter-like conditions will
take place during this period as a deep upper level trough becomes
established across the eastern third of the CONUS.

Synoptic moisture remains in place Sunday night...as airmass off the
deck continues to slowly cool, with 850Ts getting down around -10C
late. This will allow for scattered lake enhanced and eventually
westerly flow lake effect snow showers to develop east of the Lakes.
A secondary cold front will move across the area on Monday bringing
the likelihood for a period widespread snow showers for most areas.
Winds veer WNW/NW behind the boundary with widespread snow shower
activity tapering off to more upslope/lake effect dominant for
Monday night into Tuesday as 850Ts bottom out around -12C. Some
accumulating upslope/lake effect snows will be possible during this
timeframe, although mid March sun angle will at least somewhat
disrupt lake effect and hinder accumulations during the daylight
hours. Ground temps will take a bit to cool down as well.
Temperatures will be running some 5-10 degrees below average (15 deg
below in some cases), with daytime highs possibly not reaching the
freezing mark across the higher terrain Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure will then try to ridge in across the area toward mid
week. Drier air and subsidence associated with this feature will
help taper off the more persistent lake effect/upslope snows,
however it will remain cold enough aloft that a few lingering lake
effect snow showers will remain possible, especially downwind of the
Lake Ontario. Daytime highs will remain below average through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue for the first part of this
afternoon, but then showers and steady rain will move into the
area late this afternoon. Cigs will be slow to drop, with VFR
likely to last for a couple hours before heavier rain moves
across Western NY this evening. Expect MVFR vsby and cigs in
heavier rains. Across the Western Southern Tier a few
thunderstorms are possible through this evening, with some
storms already upstream of this area.

A wave of low pressure will track from west to east across the
area tonight, with fairly high confidence in IFR or lower
conditions after the low passes by and shifts winds to the
north. Some fog is also possible in the northerly upslope flow,
with vsby below a mile at times, especially across higher
terrain.

Low will exit to the east Friday, with drier air and gradually
improving conditions during the day. Mainly IFR flight
conditions will giveway to MVFR to VFR flight conditons by
Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered rain or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will track along a west to east oriented front
which is draped across the region. Northeasterly winds will
increase ahead of the low, and then will shift to the north and increase
a bit more following its passage. Stronger winds won`t last
long, but are enough to support small craft headlines for the
south shores of Lake Ontario late this afternoon through
tonight.

Low pressure will exit east of the region by early Friday
morning with winds slowly subsiding as high pressure builds into
the region. There may still be some light to modest chop on the
lakes but wave action will lessen by Friday afternoon and
evening. Light winds and wave action will persist into Saturday
before the next chance of small craft conditions arrives on
Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...JM/RSH
AVIATION...AR/Apffel
MARINE...Apffel


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