Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260927
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
427 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PEEK AT REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW CLOUD
COVER STEADILY ERODING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH EDGE OF THE
CLEARING NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND
CLEARING SKIES WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES AND
SUBSEQUENT INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS AROUND
THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE CLOUDY TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES AS SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF FORCING CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT THAT WILL
SHIFT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS
TO THE LIKELY RANGE. QPF IS EXPECTED ONE TO TWO TENTHS WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FALLING DOWN TO AROUND
-5C BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING MAY
END WITH A MIX OF SOME WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR
BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS ALOFT THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK LEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR WILL BE
TOWARD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME
WITH DRY AIR AS AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.

ON MONDAY COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A DRY
AIRMASS...SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGING.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE
NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WITH A GENERAL COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKES
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2500-3500FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CULPRIT OF THE CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER IS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...HOWEVER THE EDGES OF THIS AREA OF MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
STEADILY ERODING OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY STARTING TO
SCATTER OUT ACROSS FAR WNY. EXPECT THIS IMPROVING TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL
STUBBORNLY HOLD ON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THANKS TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...HOWEVER CIGS SHOULD STAY IN VFR TERRITORY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS ON THE
LAKES TODAY...HOWEVER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN FRESH ENOUGH
THIS MORNING TO WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
PLACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND LOWER NIAGARA
RIVERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SUFFICIENTLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SATURDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN SATURDAY EVENING AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE WEST SUNDAY...LEADING TO BUILDING WAVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE. SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP LAKE ERIE
ZONES OUT OF ADVISORIES THIS WEEKEND. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED RAIN AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND THIS
COUPLED WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHED THE BLACK RIVER ABOVE ACTION STAGE AT BOONVILLE. THE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT...WITH THE CREST
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO WATERTOWN BY SATURDAY...WHERE
THE RIVER SHOULD CREST JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...JJR







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