Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 152343 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
543 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

The main challenge in the short term continues to be the cold air
and potential for bitterly cold wind chills through midday Tuesday
or so. A strong surface high currently centered over eastern
Montana/western North Dakota will slowly drift southeastward
tonight, becoming centered over the CWA by 12Z Tuesday. With
temperatures not making it above zero in most locations today, will
see them plummet into the teens and 20s below zero overnight. Breezy
winds will diminish some around sunset, but remain around 10 MPH or
higher during the evening, then will diminish to around 5 MPH or so
by sunrise. Will see wind chills remain in warning/advisory criteria
through late morning on Tuesday, so will leave headlines in place
through 18Z. Under the influence of the strong high, conditions will
be dry tonight and Tuesday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens and 20s below zero.
High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower single digits
above zero east to around 10 degrees west of the Missouri River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Overall, the extended period looks dry, at least early on. Not
many changes were made from inherited grids. It does appear we
will see some downslope winds Tuesday night, and perhaps again
Wednesday night, so wind grids were adjusted to account for this.
Still anticipating a warm up by the end of the week as 925 mb
temps warm into the single digits above zero Celsius. Highs in the
30s and 40s still appear likely, especially given the lack of
snow cover across the region.

For the weekend, models continue to show a storm system moving
across the Plains. Latest runs continue to keep this system south of
the area and not affecting us. Of course, we are still several days
away and expect numerous changes to models as we get closer, with
the possibility models shift things north again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Except for some MVFR ceilings at ATY this evening, VFR conditions
are expected at all locations through tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ003>011-015>023.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Mohr



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