Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270844
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
244 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF
STRATUS THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS
MORNING. TODAY WILL BE A RATHER QUIET DAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S WHICH
ARE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT
TERM IS THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER WAVE WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AND MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL BE FIGHTING DRY/COLD
AIR TO THE NORTH AS IT SURGES SOUTHWARD...SO THE
EASTWARD/NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM SHOWING MAINLY ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE
MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS THEN SHOW
THE WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES SOUTH. THUS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE TEENS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LONG TERM ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ANY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS HAVE LEFT KMBG WITH GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNRISE. KPIR EARLIER SAW
LOW CIGS DEPART...BUT THEY HAVE RETURNED. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT KPIR AS JUST PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE HERE. OVER KABR
AND KATY...SATELLITE TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE A GRADUAL EROSION OF
THE LOWER CIGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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