Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Shortwave activity on the back of an upper trough is generating some
showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. Some of
these showers have been producing 50 mph wind gusts and small hail.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening after sunset.
Skies will clear by midnight and temps will fall off rapidly. Nudged
overnight lows a bit lower than guidance given the low dewpoints.

As the upper trough pushes further south tonight and Monday, low
clouds will move over the eastern Dakotas. Steadier light rain or
drizzle is possible east of the James River for Memorial Day. Temps
will cool across the area tomorrow, as well, with highs only in the
60s expected. Winds, however, will increase out of the northwest
again and remain gusty especially across the eastern cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Will continue to advertise temperatures a tick below blended
guidance for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as Canadian high pressure
settles overhead with 850mb temperatures bottoming out across the
forecast area between +1 and +4C, about a standard deviation below

Will maintain blended guidance as GFS BUFKIT soundings support
elevated instability and a low level jet early Thursday.
Temperatures remain cool in the mid levels, but will be warming as
there is upper ridging moves out of the Rockies and into the plains

As the previous forecaster also alluded to, there is trough that will
attempt to push through the upper ridge across the center of the
nation. Guidance continues to generate some convection surrounding
this feature, though models diverge on how to best handle this
feature as it is expected to weaken as it moves overhead with the
possibility that the upper ridge re-strengthens in its wake as we see
an upper low deepen over the Pacific Northwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Scattered showers and
some isolated thunder are expected this afternoon and evening. MVFR
stratus will push south into eastern SD Monday morning and
potentially affect KATY and KABR.




LONG TERM...Connelly
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