Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 031742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE A BIT. LATEST
NAM/HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT


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