Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261145 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
545 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Last of the snow showers are headed out of the eastern portions of
the CWA this am. Otherwise the day will be uneventful aside from
some pockets of morning fog as weak high pressure moves over North
Dakota today, with a little cooler airmass nosing into northeast
South Dakota.  Across western/southern counties, westerly low level
flow and 925mb temperatures of 0 to +2C will result in highs in the
low 40s, while the northeast will see those readings closer to -2 to
-6C resulting in highs in the low/mid 30s.

Mild air remains overhead with zonal flow aloft to start the work
week. A weak wave begins to enter the western CONUS at this time and
will eventually reach the region by late Monday/early Tuesday. Not
much organization with this feature, and confidence is low on
precipitation coverage and intensity. NAM BUFKIT soundings suggest a
stratus layer overhead, however with a depth of only 2kft, doubt
this will be thick enough for drizzle and instead we will see some
stratus with passing light snow showers. Blended guidance only
generates a hundredth or two at most so don`t anticipate any major
issues with this feature.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

A fairly active pattern will continue into the first half of the
extended. Northwesterly flow aloft with embedded weak waves working
through the region will remain the trend mid to late next week. An
upper trough positioned over the region on Wednesday will bring some
possible light pcpn across our northeastern zones. This will be
followed by a clipper like system on Thursday. This could deliver
some minor snow accumulations again to our north and eastern zones
as well as crank up the winds across our western zones. Relatively
quiet conditions will then settle in for the remainder of the
forecast period as a weak upper ridge builds into the area.

Temperatures will continue to remain at or above normal through the
entire period. Highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s will
be common Wednesday through Friday morning as the area continues to
remain under the influence of these quick moving weather systems.
However, by Friday into Saturday long range models do indicate a
weak ridge popping up locally ahead of a strong sfc and upper low
moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces. A warmer airmass
should result in temps warming well above normal with 40s and 50s
for highs possible and lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Going to hold with mostly VFR conditions through this forecast
period. Although, some cigs lower than this category will be
possible as is evident at KMBG early this morning where high end
IFR to MVFR cigs have been reported. Think these conditions will
be more temporary than prevailing through the day at any of the
TAF sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond


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