Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
416 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MILD DAY...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT
DEVELOPS TODAY...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE AROUND 20G30KTS
IN BUFKIT...THUS FIRE WEATHER IS THE CHIEF CONCERN. MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE 50S TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH WILL KEEP
MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO
THE EVENING...ABOUT 12MB ACROSS THE STATE...TO KEEP THE BREEZE
GOING OVERNIGHT AND LIMITING TEMPERATURE DROP.

PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE AHEAD OF THE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...BEST LIFT/SATURATION IS CONFINED TO A NARROW RIBBON
ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 8KFT...WITH A DRY/WARM SUB CLOUD ENVIRONMENT.
MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE...HOWEVER
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT THE SUGGESTION OF WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THUS...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER THANKS TO A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

H85 TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
EARLY MONDAY...SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE IN ON MONDAY...BUT NOT WITH
LOCATION AND TIMING. BEING IT IS AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO JUST ADD A SCHC POP IN FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S FRIDAY...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.









&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR ALL SITES ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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