Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180919
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
319 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A clipper system, currently over eastern Manitoba, will push into
the Great Lakes Region by this afternoon. An upper level ridge will
build into the region behind this system with much above normal
temperatures expected. With limited snow cover, leaned toward warmer
model guidance. High temperatures today should warm into the 40s for
most locations. Lower 50s are possible over south central South
Dakota. Low temperatures tonight should only fall into the teens and
lower 20s.

While 925 mb temps cool off on Friday, a passage of a weak frontal
boundary should produce highs in the 40s and lower 50s. Again, with
limited snow cover, used warmer model guidance like the ECMWF.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The late weekend storm is the main challenge this period. The models
overall remain consistent in ejecting a mid level trof east into the
plains come Sunday. As expected there do remain some differences
between the models on timing/track. CMC/GFS remain the furthest
north, while the ECMWF/CFS favors a bit further south/east track
with mid level and sfc features. The GEFS/CMCE mean mslp progs also
support a sfc low track similar to the ECMWF.

Nonetheless, all models produce a swath of pcpn out a head of the
storm Saturday night into Sunday morning. Feel models are overdoing
amounts a bit given that some of the uvm will be used up in
saturating the atmosphere. Still, it appears accumulating snow will
be possible across the cwa Saturday night and Sunday. The support
for snow said time period seems to be linked to waa/lift provided by
the right entrance region of H3 jet.  Meanwhile, later in the day on
Sunday, the main deformation zone is likely to set up from eastern
Nebraska, northeast across southeast South Dakota and into western
Minnesota. However, as per usual, any slight change in the track of
the mid and low level lows will provide for a different pcpn
outcome.

Temperatures will star the period on Saturday above normal, but then
will trend toward normal by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Thursday at all
locations.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Mohr



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