Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 262045
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A good portion of the CWA is still experiencing low clouds, even
with a weak system crossing the area. This system is will continue
to weaken through this evening as upper level support wanes. Weak
pressure pattern over the region should promote another round of low
stratus and fog tonight through Monday morning. An area of low
pressure approaching the region from the west will bring increasing
southerly winds, mainly for the Missouri River valley. The winds
should bring clearing skies along with warmer temperatures into the
western half of the CWA. The low pressure system will bring pcpn
into western South Dakota by Tuesday morning. The surface low will
likely become absorbed into the strong low pressure over the
southern plains by Tuesday night. Am expecting little to no pcpn
in NE portion of the CWA with this system.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The models show good agreement early on in the long term and then
diverge late but not enough to change our forecast. The period
starts out with a large upper level low pressure area moving out of
the southwest U.S. east into the Central Plains. At this time, we
still have in some chances of light rain on Wednesday mainly west in
the CWA. The models then show another large upper level low pressure
system dropping into the southwest U.S. later in the week and then
moving slowly east into the weekend. This system also looks to
remain south of our region. Thus, after small chances of light rain
on Wednesday, the rest of the long term looks to be dry as we will
be dominated by west to northwest flow aloft. Temperatures through
the period are still expected to be from 5 to 10 degrees above
normal mainly in the 50s and lower 60s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

IFR/MVFR ceilings will become VFR at all locations through this
afternoon and tonight, except for ATY where they are expected to
hold in. Otherwise, there will be some light rain showers near the
PIR area this afternoon. There is also expected to be some fog
forming again at ATY and ABR tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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