Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190144 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
844 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Issued at 840 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Quiet night ahead with a surface high pressure area over the cwa.
No changes to the forecast planned.

UPDATE Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Main challenge in the near term is the chance for convection across
the eastern CWA late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Upper level shortwave trough currently situated from the western
Great Lakes to central Nebraska will keep energy over the eastern
half of the CWA through the early evening hours before diving south
out of the area. Ridging then sets up and will be dominant through
the day Saturday.

Convection is currently ongoing across parts of the northeastern
CWA.  This convection looks to continue drifting east southeast, and
will likely exit the CWA by 00Z or so as the upper wave moves out.
The remainder of the period will be dry as high pressure settles in
tonight and Saturday.

Low temperatures tonight will be mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
High temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 80s in west
central Minnesota, to the lower 90s west of the Missouri River.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The models continue to show a cold frontal boundary sinking south
across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning with winds
turning northeast. The models also all show westerly flow aloft over
this frontal zone through Monday afternoon with several shortwaves
moving quickly over the region. The largest shortwave will move
through on Monday and Monday night. Along with the lift from the
shortwaves moving through, warm air overriding the cooler air
will bring periods of showers and storms from Saturday night into
Monday night. The upper level flow then becomes northwest over the
region Monday night through Wednesday night. Surface high
pressure ridging will build east of the region Wednesday afternoon
through Friday with winds becoming southeast and increasing.
Therefore, upper level ridging will build over the region into
Friday with warming temperatures. At this time, it looks mainly
dry from Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures through the period
will be mainly in the mid 70s to the mid 80s which is near to 5
degrees below normal. Friday will likely be the warmest day.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Good VFR is currently expected over the next 24 hours.




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