Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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074
FXUS63 KABR 252330 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Made a few minor changes to pops this evening west of the Missouri
River. Otherwise, continuing to track a severe storm moving east
across the southern CWA this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify just W of the CWA this
afternoon that has produced significant hail. Expect them to track E
around 20kts, and stay mainly as discrete cells through 00Z. At that
point they may diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Will
continue to closely monitor incoming and developing severe weather
potential in our high CAPE and marginal shear environment.

Current fcst would have precip exiting E shortly after 06Z, with dry
weather then being the rule through early afternoon Thursday. The
focus for showers and thunderstorms will be over the far W, and the
SE corners of the CWA. Just going with general thunderstorms for
Thursday. SPC has the Marginal and slight risk areas over the SE
corner of SD. Expect highs again tomorrow to top out in the 70s for
most areas, with low 80s possible over W Central MN.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thursday night will probably be a dry forecast period, while upper
level confluent flow is over the region. However, when an upper low
currently over southern California lifts north-northeast across the
region Friday through Saturday, precipitation chances will abound.
Then, it appears some weak mid-level ridging/height rises develop
over the Northern Plains, shutting off the vast majority of
precipitation chances from Saturday night through Sunday night.
Beyond that, longer range model output continues to suggest more
precipitation chances setting up across the region Monday through
Tuesday as the next low pressure system deepens while moving east
over the Dakotas into Minnesota. This system is also expected to
bring breezy to windy conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs
through the period will be mainly in the 70s and 80s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east this evening
and will likely affect KABR and KATY. Added in a VCTS mention for
KABR starting around 1z. Showers and thunderstorms will exit the
region by 5z. Other than in thunderstorms, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Wise



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