Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 160821
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. QUITE A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH THE TYPICAL COLDER JAMES VALLEY IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHILE THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. SHORT
TERM PERIOD IS RATHER QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GET PUSHED
EASTWARD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GETTING PUSHED COMPLETELY EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH DECENT
WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH WAA UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL BE
COMMON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THEN MOVES BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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