Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 301752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
MBG...ABR AND ATY. THUS...INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR


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