Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 212014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The daytime cu sinking across the region from eastern ND conditions
to slowly dissipate this afternoon, with a thick stratus deck still
set up across much of the western half of SD. This too will continue
to diminish in areal coverage as the afternoon continues.

The main story will be the exiting sfc ridge extending this
afternoon from Manitoba down through eastern SD/NE. This ridge will
be set up across MN by 06Z Wednesday, while a sizable 500mb ridge of
high pressure builds in from MT and sets up across the northern and
central plains by mid morning Wednesday.

Have cut back slightly on pops and mixed precip/icing potential for
overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Much of this is due to the
increased overnight temperatures and less moisture. Increased highs
Wednesday 2-4F, and in turn keeping temperatures at or below 32F to
prior to 18Z. Expecting snow amounts to stay under 1 inch overnight-
Wednesday morning. Most of the of around 0.1 inches or less qpf will
likely stay southwest of a line from MBG to ABR. Increased
winds/wind gusts for Wednesday over the western half of the forecast
area, with a few gusts over 30kts from 14-20Z. These stronger winds
expand to the east during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Models still in a bit of disagreement in regards to precip chances
Wednesday night through Thursday as a frontal boundary tries to
become established across the region in response to deepening low
pressure over the CO region. Weak ripple aloft moves through within
the southwest flow aloft, which may be enough to trigger some
showers. The 12Z EC continues to be a bit more aggressive with QPF
compared to the other models. By far, the main precip event will be
Thursday night through Friday night as the main area of low pressure
ejects eastward into the plains. The surface low appears to be
taking a southern track, mainly into the KS/OK region. The 12Z EC
has taken a notably southern shift with its QPF, now bringing most
precip across south central into southeast SD. Did not make many
changes at all to inherited POP grids as it already highlights
highest precip chances along the southern fringes of the CWA and
especially into southeast SD. Main event looks to be mainly rain,
although if temps get cold enough during the late night and early
morning hours, there may be some snow mixed in.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Some clearing is attempting to move in from the northeast,
allowing ABR to jump back to VFR in another hour or so. There have
been some MVFR ceilings at ABR, MBG and PIR early this afternoon.
Expect slowly improving conditions this afternoon. The next round
of precipitation will bring back MVFR to IFR ceilings overnight
into Wednesday from the southwest. Precip will mainly start off as
snow but could mix with light drizzle/freezing drizzle. Confidence
is not as high as originally expected on the intensity and areal
coverage of precipitation overnight into Wednesday, so stay tuned
for further updates.




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