Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010554 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1254 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TOR WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED A BIT EARLY. MOSTLY NON-SEVERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALSO...SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF
9 PM CDT. HOWEVER...MORE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL INDUCE SHOWERS. EXACT TIMING
AND POSITION ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SO HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS.

FOR TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL DOWN OFF THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE EAST BUT THERE IS AROUND
50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WEST RIVER. COMBINED WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG CAPE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES. THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES COULD ALSO SEE SOME STORMS DRIFT IN FROM WESTERN SD.

AS A SFC LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS MOISTURE FEED COUPLED
WITH MORE SHORTWAVES...PERHAPS EVEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WED NIGHT
WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
DAYTIME THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SO FORECAST
HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC A FEW DAYS AGO...PLUS THE PROJECTED
STATE OF THE MJO ALL SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND BEYOND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME ONLY THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THE
BEST TIME PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL USED. BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM SHOULD BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SUNDAY COULD BE WARM AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMBG AND KABR MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS. AFTER A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AND IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN



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