Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200606 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
106 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Issued at 1254 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 921 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

No changes made to the forecast this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

The main concern in the short term continues to be the heat
affecting the region. Temperatures will top out in the 90s to lower
100s and only fall into the upper 60s to 70s overnight. Forecast
highs for Wednesday will be the hottest with actual temps ranging
from upper 90s in the east to around 105 across central SD. Winds
will also be lighter on Wednesday.

A sfc low will work its way across the Dakotas on Wednesday and
Thursday. H7 temps ranging from +15 to +18 will prevent any
convective development on Wed. Overall, the short term is simply dry
and hot. The excessive heat warning remains in effect, expanding to
include the eastern counties on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

The long term portion of the forecast begins with the last, hot and
humid day across the region. High temperatures on Friday will likely
warm into the 90s and 100 degrees. Sometime Friday afternoon, or
more likely Friday night, a strong cold front and upper level
shortwave will track across North Dakota. This system should break
the cap with thunderstorms possible, especially for northeast SD and
western MN. Much cooler and less humid conditions will filter into
the region on the back side of this system with temperatures near
normal for the weekend. The weather pattern becomes active beyond
the weekend with several chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Based on the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, Superblend`s pops look good early
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

So far, short term guidance has yet to latch on to the stratus
clouds developing/streaming up over the prairie coteau (KATY)
early this morning. Per satellite trends, sub-vfr stratus will
likely be sticking around at KATY well into the morning. Not sure
if the stratus will expand over to include KABR for a few hours
this morning, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail across the area through the day Wednesday.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for MNZ039-046.



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