Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 052116
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE AREA OF SNOW THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
TODAY HAS NOW EXITED THE AREA...WITH THE CLOUDS SOON TO FOLLOW.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WHEN THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SET TO TRACK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AN AREA OF SNOW WILL ALSO DROP OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE EASTERN
CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE REAL HIGH...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES...BUT WITH THE STRONG
WINDS AS WELL... WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BEGINNING AT 12Z SUNDAY AND
RUNNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY
MILD...WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO STILL EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN BACK TO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE WE CAN SEE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRANSITION WITHIN THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION UNDER THIS TYPE OF
REGIME. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COLDER AIR AND MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR
WILL ALSO STRADDLE THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL WOBBLE TO THE EAST
AND WEST SOMEWHAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH OF THESE WAVES...HOWEVER
THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARDS A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARDS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN KABR AND KATY WILL
GENERATE MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY


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