Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 210544 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The cloud deck over the region continues to slowly dissipate as
diabatic heating ends across the region. With the recent rains,
still feel that fog is a distinct possibility later tonight as
skies continue to slowly clear. The wind will be light, adding
another ingredient for possible fog.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Still quite a bit of cloud cover across the CWA with only minimal
breaks. Although, a larger area of clearing is noted across eastern
ND and is trying to work south. Also noted on satellite is a vort
max across central ND pushing southward. A few sprinkles are
associated with this circulation as it moves south. Main issue in
the forecast will be timing the departure of clouds this evening
into the overnight. Models continue to suggest a gradual erosion of
clouds after sunset, but at varying areal coverages. Overall theme
appears to be heading towards clearing conditions at some point this
evening/overnight, with fog potential increasing. As the surface
high settles in, winds will go light along with the clearing skies.
Also, the ground is rather moist from recent rainfall. If we manage
to get several hours of clearing, fog seems to be a decent bet.

The rest of the short term remains quiet. Friday looks to be dry
with mainly light winds. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to lower
60s, with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies after any morning fog
burns off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The long term starts off dry across the CWA with a weak upper level
high pressure area over our region dissipating into Saturday.
Another upper high pressure ridge axis moves in from the west and
weakens from Saturday afternoon through Sunday. At this time,
Saturday and Sunday should be mostly sunny with dry and mild
conditions as subsidence dominates. The models do show a weak
surface trough bringing some showers to the north of our cwa from
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. These showers may sneak into
our far north and northeast cwa, we will have to wait and see. For
Monday through Thursday, the models all show a large upper level low
pressure area off the Pacific Northwest coast sending one short wave
after another southeast and across our region. These will bring
several chances of showers to parts of our cwa. The models all agree
that a much larger upper low pressure trough will dig into our
region for Wednesday and Thursday bringing better chances of
rainfall for later Wednesday night and Thursday.

Both Saturday and Sunday should be in the 60s with lower 70s out
west on Sunday. Monday should be cooler with a front coming across
the region. This cooler air will remain with upper 40s and 50s for
highs for Tuesday through Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A batch of VFR stratus between the KABR and KMBG terminals
continues to dissipate, while bkn/ovc high cirrus spreads
northeast across the region. Over the next 7 hours, if the cirrus
dissipates enough to leave "clear skies", light winds and high
humidity may lead to some fog over the region. If fog develops, it
would burn off by mid-morning Friday. Also, fair weather cu are
possible with daytime heating on Friday.




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