Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251723
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. MODELS INDICATE SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
POCKET OF COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS THE
REASON FOR THE COOL TEMPERATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD BY 12Z TUESDAY. COOL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH SO MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF QUITE A BIT ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THE SFC HIGH
IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT STEERING
FLOW AS NORTHERN JET STREAM AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM AIR CURRENTS
CONVERGE ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS STILL
SHOWCASE UPPER FLOW RE-CONSOLIDATING TO MORE OF A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROF ENERGY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS
THINGS DRY OVER THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN THIS WESTERN CONUS LOW
PRESSURE ENERGY IS WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES...EVEN IN THE ECMWF...STILL SHOW A GENERAL WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY GO VARIABLE AT ALL
SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE REGAINING A LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TVT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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