Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN
BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND PCPN AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SREF INDICATES REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

CLOUDY SKIES MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 0Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BEFORE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN
BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE I90 CORRIDOR WHILE THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR RAIN AS THE MAJOR
PTYPE...THOUGH SOME MIXED IN/NON ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A WARM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW WAVE FOR MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS IN WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE OVER HANDLING A COLD SURGE COMING OUT OF
CANADA...EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT
AS THE COOLER AIRMASS IS DIRECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
CONUS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS IN KPIR AND KATY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THERE
IS A POTENTIALOF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
FOR THE TERMINALS OF KPIR AND KATY. THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND
KMBG SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...SD


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