Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 182337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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