Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KABR 151744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1144 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Aviation discussion updated below for 18z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1027 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Temperatures warming up nicely this morning and on track to max
out in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area. Skies have been a
little hazy this morning in and around parts of the James Valley,
but expecting conditions to improve through the day. Otherwise,
the discussion below remains largely unchanged.

UPDATE Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

An area of high pressure currently over the tri-state region of ND,
SD, and MN has produced light and variable winds. With the light
winds and mostly clear skies, temps this morning should still fall
into the upper teens and low 20s. A backdoor cold front,
currently along the Missouri River, will push east of the region
as low level winds become southwesterly. The winds will draw
warmer air into the region with high temperatures reaching the 40s
and 50s for most locations. Warmer temps will continue to filter
into the region on Thursday with highs climbing into the 50s and
60s. Thursday is when an upper level ridge is located over the
region with 850, 700, 500 mb temps at or above the 99th
percentile. According to the NAEFS return interval, some of the
700 and 500 mb temps are outside the climate forecast system
reanalysis. Based on some models, like the GFS, 700 mb temps by 0Z
Friday could exceed their all-time high in February for KABR
soundings. Some models still indicate top ten 850 mb temps as well
by 0Z Friday. With a dwindling snowpack, highs could be warmer on
Thursday. A shortwave crossing the region on Friday will push the
upper level ridge eastward. This trough, along with a surface
low, will mixed down the warm temps aloft with highs likely
climbing into the upper 40s to the low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

When the period opens, there is upper level longwave troffing over
the west coast and upper level longwave ridging over the eastern two-
thirds of the CONUS. The pattern becomes rather active with low
pressure systems aggressively propagating through this over-arching
longwave trof west/ridge east theme. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF deterministic
solutions have trended markedly drier with the Monday precipitation
chances. The Canadian model output still maintains a stronger, upper
level closed-low system lifting north through the region late Sunday
night through Monday night. Low level thermal progs continue to
showcase the potential for much above normal temperatures throughout
the extended forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Low confidence in fog
formation across and east of the James River Valley tonight into
tomorrow morning. Will address with updates if necessary.




AVIATION...Lueck is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.