Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 060513 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1113 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

DENSE FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND...IN PARTICULAR IMPACTING THE
I-29 CORRIDOR. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR IT...VALID THROUGH
4 AM CST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

CURRENTLY...PER AREA WEBCAMS...SURFACE OBS AND FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...GOT SOME FOG DEVELOPING UP ON THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA /KATY DOWN TO ONE-QUARTER MILE
VISBY IN FOG/. THE FOG BANK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND
MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEFORE IT`S ALL SAID AND
DONE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

GOOD SET UP FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SATURDAY. MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER IN PLACE /NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT/...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA EVENT DEVELOPING
AND FAVORABLE INVERSION LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION.
IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL RESIDES BETWEEN 6 AM
CST AND NOON CST ON SATURDAY. NO BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...BUT DID
ISSUE AN SPS EARLIER TO INCREASE AWARENESS OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WIND POTENTIAL HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 537 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE AREA OF SNOW THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
TODAY HAS NOW EXITED THE AREA...WITH THE CLOUDS SOON TO FOLLOW.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WHEN THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SET TO TRACK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AN AREA OF SNOW WILL ALSO DROP OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE EASTERN
CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE REAL HIGH...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES...BUT WITH THE STRONG
WINDS AS WELL... WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BEGINNING AT 12Z SUNDAY AND
RUNNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY
MILD...WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO STILL EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN BACK TO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE WE CAN SEE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRANSITION WITHIN THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION UNDER THIS TYPE OF
REGIME. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COLDER AIR AND MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR
WILL ALSO STRADDLE THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL WOBBLE TO THE EAST
AND WEST SOMEWHAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH OF THESE WAVES...HOWEVER
THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARDS A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARDS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXCEPT FOR THE LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OCCURRING AT KATY EARLY THIS
MORNING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREAK FROM THE SUB-VFR FLYING WEATHER
AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHOWCASE RATHER TOUGH FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND EVEN SOME
SNOW CHANCES THROWN IN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR SDZ020>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN


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