Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221804 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1204 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW.

DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW RIGHT
OVERHEAD...EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER AND HAVE THEREFORE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN ACROSS THE
EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES MADE TO
WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FALLING AS LIGHT RAIN...WITH
WARM ADVECTION PUSH IN SOUTHEAST SD EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. MOISTURE OUT WEST RIVER ALSO OVER
AN AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING.
MAIN ISSUE IS IN BETWEEN WHERE SOME RADIATION COOLING SENT
READINGS INTO THE 20S EARLIER...AND WITH LIGHT QPF SEEING SOME
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY BETWEEN PIERRE...HIGHMORE...UP TO GETTYSBURG.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE SO EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS THROUGH THE EARLY
AM AND WENT WITH AN SPS. GUIDANCE COOLS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF
RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...I SUSPECT A TAD TOO QUICKLY...FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT UNTIL TROWAL FEATURE
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED TONIGHT. GREATEST MODEL OUTPUT FOR SNOW
TOTALS ARE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL COUNTIES AND NUDGE UP INTO WARNING
CRITERIA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ELECTED TO GO WITH
AN ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE ALSO TRENDED DOWN AND LATER INTO TUESDAY
SO EXPECTED LESS IMPACT WITH BLOWING SNOW THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS
SUGGESTED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM CENTER AROUND PCPN CHANCES.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD A S/W RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE ENERGY COMING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE VERY EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND....WITH A SWATH OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE
LOOK TO START OFF ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

-SN WILL AFFECT KABR AND KMBG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH -RASN
AT KATY AND KPIR. ALTHOUGH...THE LATTER TWO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO -SN BY LATER TODAY. CIGS VARY AT TAF ISSUANCE RANGING
FROM MVFR TO AS LOW AS 400 FT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS AT KABR AND KATY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
KMBG AND KPIR SHOULD SEE FALLING CIGS AS SNOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH
THE DAY AND NIGHT. VSBY IN KABR AND KATY HAS RISEN ABOVE 1SM AS
FG/BR HAS LIFTED. THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER
AS -SN/SN DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES. KMBG AND KPIR EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LOWEST CIGS BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SN AND BLSN
DEVELOP WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. VSBY MAY FALL TO AROUND
1/2SM IN SN AND BLSN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
     6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-
     POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-DAY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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