Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 181727 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1127 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1029 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

No changes of note from this mornings forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

A modified Pacific airmass will move into the area today with
temperatures reaching the upper 20s to the mid 30s. Several
locations in western ND and MT are already in the 30s. Closer to
home, a downslope wind event is producing temps in the mid 30s.
Unfortunately our deep snowpack over much of the CWA will limit our
heating today.

A broad 500 mb low over the four corners region will slowly lift
northeast into our region late Thursday afternoon. This system will
spread low stratus, and perhaps drizzle into the eastern half of the
CWA Thursday night. While the 500 mb low exits the region by Friday,
a developing surface low pressure system could bring additional
light pcpn into the eastern half of the CWA. While buffer soundings
suggest snow or rain, they also indicate a good potential of
drizzle. At this time, the cloud level, as well as surface temps
support a liquid event over freezing drizzle or snow. With
widespread cloud cover along and east of the James River Thursday
night, have increase lows by a few degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

The extended period places the region in a very active pattern. The
weekend opens with an area of low pressure moving north through the
eastern Dakotas. Temperatures profiles will be on of the main
challenges with this system as highs will be right around the cusp
of freezing and will determine a rain/snow line.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next
week. but there will be a cooling trend through the period. By
Tuesday, when a deep upper low is slated to move through the Plains,
temperatures would support all snow. The GFS continues to show a
more southward track keeping all areas north of I-90 dry except for
some cold air advection snow showers behind the low. This is in
contrast to the more northern track of the ECMWF which would give
the region more significant precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is the
potential for some scattered MVFR level clouds to begin to push
over the southeastern CWA Thursday morning, possibly affecting
KATY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin


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