000
FXUS63 KABR 101152 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
552 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AS
EASTERN AREAS ARE NOW SEEING WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP
GRIDS AS ABERDEEN HAS SNUCK DOWN TO -10 THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT EARLY FOR THESE AREAS AS BLOWING SNOW
IS QUICKLY BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING
FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 12Z AS WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY
THERE. EXPECT THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS
WEAKER AND DOES NOT PACK AS MUCH WIND AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...BUT
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A PRETTY DECENT BET FROM WESTERN ND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD. CONSTRUCTED HIGHEST
POPS IN THIS AREA AS THIS IS THE AREA MODELS ARE PINGING THE MOST.
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION WITH TODAYS SYSTEM AS WAS EARLIER STATED...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS CLIPPER.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GET A BIT BREEZY BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY BUT DO NOT SEEM HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES. THE BIG THING WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THAT
DEVELOP AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION. ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF IT IS TRICKY. SFC HIGH
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SO FEEL THAT THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY GO TO 5 MPH OR LESS BY SUNRISE. IT
APPEARS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SAFELY IN CRITERIA WITH
WESTERN AREAS A BIT QUESTIONABLE. EARLY ON WINDS ARE STILL BREEZY
AS TEMPS TUMBLE...LIKELY PUSHING THINGS INTO CRITERIA WITH
READINGS 25 BELOW OR COLDER. LEFT CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SD OUT OF
IT FOR RIGHT NOW TO LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK. CENTRAL SD
IS RIGHT IN THE RIDGE AXIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WINDS MAY BE
RATHER LIGHT AND LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER NIGHT SO RATHER MARGINAL
HERE. BUT AGAIN...EARLY ON IN THE EVENING THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
OF CRITERIA READINGS. TRIED TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW BUT DAY
SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO COUNTIES AND TIMING.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
PATTERN...BUT LACK AGREEMENT IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES. THIS THEN HAS AN AFFECT ON WHEN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.
FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND WHICH
KEEPS SMALL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT BEING DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS BELOW ZERO LIKELY. WILL SEE A BIT OF A WARM UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY FALL INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN