000
FXUS63 KABR 150857
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRAWN FROM A 1036MB HIGH OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...HAS LIMITED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA THUS
FAR...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW EJECTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO GIVE US LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THANKS TO A SHIFT IN QPF BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...THOUGH WEAK LIFT...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A WARM LAYER...ARE ALL EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. FARTHER EAST...DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY BE THE INHIBITING FACTOR ON ACCUMULATION. DRIER AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS A RATHER QUICK DROP OFF IN
SNOW/CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS HIGH ALSO SETS UP
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH IN
DETERMINING THE LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH DEPENDS ON SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES
PEAK AROUND +6 TO +12C MONDAY PM...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE A
MOSTLY SOUTH DIRECTION...SO WE MAY NOT REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL
OF MIXING ON THESE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LONG TERM WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN SYSTEM
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOGETHER CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF SAID SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME DECENT PCPN AND PERHAPS DECENT SNOW. HOWEVER THE
FURTHER NORTH MOVEMENT OF SFC FEATURES MAY LIMIT SNOW SOMEWHAT.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DURING THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EARLY THIS MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AT KATY...THESE
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE BY MID MORNING
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR
MVFR. AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LOOK FOR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW TO
DROP TO MVFR/IFR AT KMBG AND KABR AND KATY...WITH LIGHT RAIN
PROBABLE BRIEFLY AT KPIR BEFORE WET-BULB EFFECTS AND SOME LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TURNS P-TYPE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT KPIR
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WORKING INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
KABR AND KATY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN