000
FXUS63 KABR 010829
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
329 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

The majority of the short term period will be dry as the region will
be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to
the west. This will keep southerly winds in place, with breezy
conditions at times, which will aid in bringing warm air up into the
region. The low to the west will intensify and reach the western
high plains on Monday, bringing a chance of precipitation to the
western CWA. May be a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon as models
are indicating 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE values.

With the warm southerly flow in place, temperatures will be above
normal through the period. Generally looking at daytime highs in the
mid 70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

A deep trough will begin to push into the plains at the start of the
work week. This system is atmospherically stacked with a 980MB sfc
low also moving into the Dakotas Monday night. Models are showing
a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into early
Tuesday. However, while Superblend lingers precip over the entire
region into Wednesday, the GFS has now picked up on the ECMWF`s
trend of dryslotting areas west of the I-29 corridor by mid
morning Tuesday. So, if trends continue, will likely need to
reduce pops on Tue/Wed in the forecast. Once this sfc low exits,
the region is expected to dry out for the rest of the week.

Temperatures will see a downward trend as the trough digs into the
Plains. Highs near 70 on Tuesday will fall to around 60 on Thu and
Fri. Saturday will see a slight rebound as another upper ridge
begins to build in to the central U.S.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Saturday.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise