Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260223 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH 00Z RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUING TO DOWNPLAY ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT DECIDED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL FREEZING
RAIN. AT THIS TIME MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY CHANCE...BUT FELT
THAT WITH WEAK ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM ND WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NE EVEN THOUGH NOTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND YET.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL THUS KEEP TEMPS
STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
NAM PROFILES...EXPECT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH TWO SIMILAR
EVENTS EARLIER THIS JANUARY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIALLY ICY
COMMUTE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CAVEATS.
THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES FEATURED RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE 2 INCH GROUND TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST EVEN WAS 17F WHILE THIS AFTERNOON ITS 30F...WHICH MAY NOT BE
AS REPRESENTATIVE OF LOCATIONS FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL SHOULD
LESSEN THE DURATION OF ANY ICE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
SECOND IS THE SPOTTY NATURE. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AREAS IMPACTED
BEFORE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RETURNS DEVELOP BEFORE ANY
FURTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN.

WE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE COTEAU TONIGHT
FOR A FEW HOURS THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AND H925 WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH FULL SUN AND
H85/H925 READINGS A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO AND FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM...AND
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WE COULD SEE FOG. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH. THE TWO STRONGEST WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THOSE TWO TIME
PERIODS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN FOR THE LATE PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS
THE MODELS AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS AGO WERE SHOWING A DECENT COLD
SURGE...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BACK OFF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH
NOW IS SHOWING H85 TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST TO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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