Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 310528 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Conditions are quieting down now, with convection pretty much
dissipated across the cwa. Surface analysis indicates slightly
higher dewpoints reside across the southern/western forecast zones
at this time and southeasterly return flow winds are forecast to
set up shop along and west of the missouri river tonight under
clearing skies. Did nudge low temperatures down a couple of
degrees throughout the James River valley and points east for
tonight, and removed the weather/pops mention from the rest of
this evening. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

That aforementioned returning frontal boundary has brought plenty
of instability with it this afternoon. Quite a bit of scattered
convective activity since appx 345pm this afternoon. Like
yesterday, meaningful deep-layer wind shear is lacking to organize
convection this afternoon into anything more than some pulse
severe hail producers and heavy rainers. Storm motion has been
very erratic this afternoon. minor adjustments to pops/wx mention
and skycover were made. updates are out.

see below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A weak frontal boundary returning northward this afternoon along
with surface heating has resulted in quite a bit of low and mid
level clouds over our cwa. These should dissipate/lift north through
the evening. Otherwise, surface high pressure centered in Canada
with ridging extending south into the northern plains will build
ever so slowly east through the Thursday night. With surface low
pressure moving in from the west, the surface pressure gradient will
be tightening up along with an increasing llj. Therefore, south
winds will slowly be on the increase from Wednesday into Thursday.
This flow will also keep the above normal temperature trend going
through the short term with highs ranging from 80 to 90 or so. With
sharp upper level ridging moving across our region bringing general
subsidence and low rh air, expect little or no cloud cover through
the period along with dry conditions. Fire weather conditions may
be an issue towards Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The extended will be dominated by an upper trof that slowly
progresses from the Pacific Northwest into the central CONUS. There
appears to be several shortwaves embedded within the longwave trof
which, along with a front stalled across the northern/central plains
and broad area of high pressure to the east, will result in a period
of inclement weather which spans Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler air
will eventually work into the CWA towards the end of the period as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Expect VFR for all terminals with an east/southeast wind over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise



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