Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251654 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1054 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT RETURNS/SPRINKLES
UPSTREAM...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE
MO VALLEY. CLEARING ALSO NOTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH MAY INCREASE
TEMPS TO NEAR FREEZING.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE
TONIGHT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST SOME LIGHT QPF MOVING
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CWA. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL EVENTS LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN JANUARY AND THE IMPACTS OF ICE ARE QUITE SUBSTANTIAL
COMPARED TO ACTUAL QPF.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AND WEAK LIFT...EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END BY 12Z...CLOUDY SKIES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FOR
THE EASTERN CWA. THUS HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA TODAY
WITH A FEW HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED SPRINKLES. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CLIMBING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL DOWN SLOPE
WIND EVENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE SISSETON HILLS TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S
DURING THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT...BLOWING SNOW SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 3 TO 10C ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE LIKELY FOR WEST RIVER COMMUNITIES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
DOWNSTREAM TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL
SPELL GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS S/W ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY BUT THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE LOT BUT EVEN IT
HAS WARMED A BIT VS PREVIOUS RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY...BUT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY AT KMBG/KPIR.
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ALL DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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