Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261622 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY STILL
LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...IF ANY...COMBINED
WITH A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY 10 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY AND
MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED
ON HOURLY TRENDS THIS MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SPREAD AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  73  97  73  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              96  67  97  68  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             90  64  92  65  94 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  66  96  69  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  69  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            96  73  96  74  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           94  67  94  69  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         94  67  95  70  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  97  69  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  69  96  68  98 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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