National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 250950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25