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000
FXUS64 KFWD 180429 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017


.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through 06z
Wednesday. There is a low chance of some brief MVFR ceilings
around 1500 feet between 13z and 16z at Waco but the chances are
not good enough to mention at this time, so have just placed a
SCT015 for that time period. Southeast winds 5 to 8 knots will
become become southerly after 07z and then back around to the
southeast by 17z.

58

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

Much like the previous couple of days, showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across Central Texas.
This is attributed to the abundant moisture continuing to take
hold across that area. Taking a look at the preliminary, non-
operational data from GOES-16, precipitable water values range
between 1.8 and 2.0 inches. Combined with sufficient daytime
heating, the parcels of air have reached their convective
temperature of around 92-94 degrees. Given the diurnal nature of
the convection, expect to see a decrease in coverage as we begin
to lose daytime heating.

With temperatures being quite warm, it is hard to imagine it can
get much hotter. Unfortunately, that will be the case as we
continue with the work week. Climatologically, the period DFW
reaches its hottest daytime high begins July 25th and will last
through August 18th. During this time period, the average daily
maximum temperature is 97 degrees. Waco experiences its warmest
average max temperatures between July 27th and August 14th with a
value of 98 degrees. We are quickly approaching that time period,
and highs in the coming days will certainly represent it.
Beginning Wednesday, temperatures will be in the upper 90s to
around 100. As the ridge of high pressure continues to dominate
our weather, temperatures will warm even further Thursday and
Friday.

Our placement relative to the upper level ridge means that we
will continue to see a fetch of moisture streaming in from the
south and southeast through the entire period. Dew points will be
in the mid 70s, leading to dangerous heat index values. Heat index
values will start increasing Wednesday where most locations will
be between 100 and 104 degrees. Urban locations will most likely
be a few degrees warmer, with values between 105 and 107. The high
heat indices not only increase in value, but also in areal
coverage Thursday and Friday where much of the eastern half of the
CWA will experience heat index values at or above 105 with low
precipitation chances confined to the southeastern counties.

Coverage of 105+ heat index values will be slightly reduced in
areal coverage Saturday and Sunday as the center of high pressure
migrates to the east. Diurnally driven showers and storms will
continue to be possible through the weekend as there will be
nothing stopping the transport of higher moisture to our southern
zones.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  78  99  78 /   5   0   0   5   5
Waco                75  95  76  97  77 /  10  10   0  10   5
Paris               73  92  74  93  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
Denton              74  96  75  98  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
McKinney            74  95  75  97  76 /  10   5   5   5   5
Dallas              78  97  79  99  80 /   5   0   0   5   5
Terrell             74  94  75  95  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
Corsicana           75  94  75  95  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
Temple              73  94  74  98  75 /  10  20   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       73  94  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/25