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000
FXUS64 KFWD 182343 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
643 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Expect low clouds to form overnight across South Texas and with
southwest winds above the surface, these clouds should move
northeast into Central Texas including Waco and then northeast
into East Texas. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into the Waco
area around 12z and stick around until around 16z with an
improvement to VFR thereafter. VFR conditions should prevail at
the Metroplex TAF sites through 06z Wednesday. Surface winds will
be southeast to south at 6 to 9 knots tonight and will become
south at 12 to 14 knots by 16z Tuesday. Some gusts to around 20
knots are possible from 16z through 23z Tuesday.

58

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/
Regional radar imagery shows scattered showers and a few storms
mainly confined to our far southeast counties this afternoon. As
weak forcing for ascent continues to spread eastward through this
evening, we should see all convective activity come to an end. The
forecast through mid week will remain essentially unchanged with
zonal flow aloft and south to southwest flow near the surface.
This will keep North Texas hot and dry with the only precipitation
chances confined to our far southeast counties through Wednesday.

By Wednesday night we will start to see some stronger flow aloft
spread into West Texas with height falls spreading into North
Texas by early Thursday morning. With a strengthening low level
jet, warm advection will become concentrated across our western
counties late Wednesday night. Despite generally weak forcing for
ascent, a few thunderstorms could develop during this time and
persist into Thursday morning mainly west of I-35. Low convective
chances will linger through the day Thursday across most of the
region.

A large upper trough will continue to dig across the western U.S.
through the end of the week into the early part of the weekend.
This will keep the main storm track well removed from our region.
Temperatures will remain above normal during this time with low
precipitation chances. This upper trough may finally get an
eastward push early next week which should send a cold front into
the region along with increasing rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  95  77  95  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
Waco                75  94  76  95  76 /   0  10   5  10   5
Paris               71  91  74  92  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Denton              74  95  77  95  75 /   5  10   5   5  10
McKinney            73  93  76  94  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
Dallas              77  95  78  95  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
Terrell             74  93  76  93  75 /   0   5   5  10   5
Corsicana           74  93  76  94  75 /   0  10   5  10   5
Temple              74  93  75  94  74 /   0  10   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       73  95  75  96  73 /   5  10   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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