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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190832
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies, light winds, and plenty of lingering surface moisture
are resulting in some localized areas of visibility reductions
just east of our CWA. Winds have stayed up just a bit across our
Red River zones (around 5 kts or so), but there was enough
rainfall yesterday that we still may see some patchy areas of
light fog develop towards sunrise. The big story today will be the
heat as high pressure builds in across our region. Temperatures
will rise into the middle and upper 90s today across North Central
Texas. These temperatures, combined with dewpoints in the upper
60s to near 70, will result in heat index values in the 100-105
degree range during peak heating.

Some high-resolution guidance continues to be quite aggressive in
developing afternoon convection across parts of our CWA. While
we`ll retain a decent amount of low-level moisture even after
mixing, drying mid-levels and increased subsidence should really
work to counteract any thunderstorm development today. That said,
added in a very low mention of isolated storms southwest of a
Cisco to Stephenville to Killeen line this afternoon in the
vicinity of a weakness in the mid-level ridge/inverted trough
axis. Given the very toasty temperatures, any storm that develops
would be capable of producing very localized gusty winds.

High pressure will be in charge through most of the upcoming week,
resulting in above normal high temperatures and a stretch of
quiescent weather. Towards the end of the week, an amplification
to the synoptic scale flow will occur as a transient Rex Block
develops across the western U.S and Canada. As deep southerly flow
returns to the region, so too will moisture and an increasing risk
for showers and storms. Friday will feature low chances confined
to our far southern counties, before chances spread across all of
the region over the weekend.

Significant volatility in NWP solutions exists this weekend. The
19/00Z runs of the GEFS and NAEFS ensemble systems seem to be
favoring a solution in which a sizable chunk of vorticity gets
pinched off from the main trough axis, resulting in a closed low
hanging back across the southwestern U.S. On the other hand, the
EPS (the ECMWF ensemble system) appears much more progressive (at
least based on the available 19/12Z run). Based on the large
degree of model variability, we`ll continue to indicate chance
probs across the region this weekend with confidence simply too
low to introduce anything more than 40% PoPs at this juncture.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/
/06Z TAFs/

Southeast to southwest winds will prevail through the valid TAF period,
at speeds less than 10 kts. VFR conditions are expected with some
afternoon driven cumulus clouds between 5-7 kft and occasional
high clouds. A few isolated showers or storms are possible Monday
afternoon but the potential and expected coverage is too low to
mention in the TAF.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  77  97  73  95 /   5   5   5   0   5
Waco                99  74  96  72  95 /  10   5   5   5   5
Paris               95  72  94  69  92 /  10   5   5   0   5
Denton              97  72  95  70  93 /   5   5   5   0   5
McKinney            97  73  95  70  93 /   5   5   5   0   5
Dallas              99  78  97  74  96 /   5   5   5   0   5
Terrell             97  74  95  71  94 /  10   5   5   0   5
Corsicana           97  75  95  72  94 /  10   5   5   5   5
Temple              97  73  96  72  94 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       97  72  95  70  93 /   5   5   5   0   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

79/90