Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 251758
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST SITES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NO CIG OR VIS LIMITATIONS OF ANY SORT ARE
EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...AVERAGING 8-12KTS AT ALL SITES.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN WANDER TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100-101
DEGREES. NEITHER OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES AT DFW INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT /KDFW/ OR WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT /ACT/ HAVE REACHED 100
DEGREES YET THIS YEAR...BUT SEVERAL SITES IN THE REGION HAVE CLIMBED
TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK WITHIN THE PAST 2 DAYS...OR AS FAR BACK AS
THE PAST 7 DAYS. SEVERAL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO 100-101 OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER
AND MAINTAIN A POSITION NEAR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE QUESTION OF WHEN OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES WILL
FINALLY REACH 100 DEGREES IS STILL AN EDUCATED GUESS. ANALYZING
THE FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DOES NOT
SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROPERTIES TO HELP
ANSWER THE QUESTION...BUT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH MAY
ALLOW AT LEAST KDFW TO FINALLY REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK THIS
WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...HAVE FORECASTED 99 FOR KDFW AND 98 FOR
KACT...BUT INCREASE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ON SUNDAY TO BRING KDFW
TO 100 DEGREES. THIS MAY ONLY LAST FOR A DAY THOUGH AS DFW MAY
FALL BACK TO 98-99 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR 100 DEGREES AT BOTH SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BOTH SITES MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. THIS IS WHY THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF KDFW AND
KACT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 97-99 RANGE...BUT ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT RESIDENTS FROM THE HEAT.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TO OUR WEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL TRANSITION NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
IN ADDITION...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND DUE TO THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  80 100  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              98  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             99  76  99  77  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            99  78 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX           100  82 101  82 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  75  99  76  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  99  77  99 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  98  73  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  74  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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