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000
FXUS64 KFWD 140053 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
753 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL BE EXTENDING TORNADO WATCH 74 FOR MONTAGUE...GRAYSON AND
COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.  WILL ALLOW YOUNG COUNTY TO EXPIRED.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL TIMING THE
COLD FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALONG IT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM GUTHRIE TO WICHITA
FALLS TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT 7 PM. THE FRONT WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH AND SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
BETWEEN 3 AND 4Z AND WACO A FEW HOURS LATER. A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WIND BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY. A THIN LINE OF STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILTER IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FROPA AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY HAD
MOVED TO THE EAST OF A BONHAM TO CORSICANA TO GEORGETOWN LINE AS
OF 330 PM. THESE STORMS PRODUCED SOME LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
AND THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF SOME SMALL HAIL. ROUND TWO OF
STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A SWEETWATER TO CHILDRESS TO PLAINVIEW LINE AT 3
PM....WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN MONDAY MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
EVENING TO COVER MONDAY/S STRONG WINDS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WINDS WILL DECREASE BY SUNSET MONDAY AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE
LIGHTER WINDS...A FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 20S ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. 58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  57  34  63  43 /  50  10   5   0   5
WACO, TX              54  59  34  64  39 /  40  20   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             49  51  30  60  38 /  50  20  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            45  54  30  63  39 /  60  10   5   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          48  55  31  62  38 /  60  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            50  57  35  63  44 /  50  10   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           52  56  32  62  38 /  50  20   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         54  56  34  62  40 /  40  20   5   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  60  35  64  38 /  30  20   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  56  31  64  38 /  20  10   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75