827
FXUS64 KFWD 240517
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms (10 to 20% chance) are possible
  each afternoon this week, mainly in Central and East Texas.

- A slow warming trend will take place mid to late week, with
  triple digit highs possible this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

A stout upper ridge will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic
and Ohio Valley regions through the midweek period, placing North
and Central Texas on its western periphery. This will maintain
weak southerly flow through the column, with a modest fetch of
low-level moisture. A persistence forecast will be the result,
with diurnally driven isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
in parts of Central and East Texas this afternoon and again
Wednesday afternoon. The greatest coverage (of only 10-20%)
will coincide with peak heating. Otherwise, near normal
temperatures will persist with highs in the low/mid 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s. Mixing out of 70s surface dewpoints
into the 60s by the afternoon will keep maximum heat index values
to around 100F or less both today and tomorrow.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 109 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/
/Wednesday through Monday/

The sprawling upper level ridge over the Eastern United States
will gradually weaken and retrograde through the remainder of the
week, culminating in the development of a weaker high center over
the Arklatex region by the weekend. Rainfall opportunities will
remain quite scant through the period, and daytime temperatures
will inch upward as subsidence gains a stronger foothold over the
region. Heat indices in excess of 100 will begin to appear in the
urban areas as early as Wednesday afternoon, with values of
100-104 becoming widespread by next weekend. Heat Advisories
ultimately may be required closer to the end of the forecast
period.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR and south/southeast winds around 10 kts will prevail through
the TAF period. There is a small chance for brief MVFR stratus to
affect Waco this morning, but this potential is too low to
include in the TAF at this time. All afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain southeast of the
airports today.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  94  75  93  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Waco                75  92  74  90  73 /   5  10   5  20   0
Paris               74  91  73  91  74 /   5   5   5  10   0
Denton              75  94  74  93  74 /   0   0   5   5   0
McKinney            75  93  75  92  74 /   0   5   5  10   0
Dallas              77  94  76  94  77 /   0   5   5   5   0
Terrell             74  92  73  91  74 /   5   5   5  10   0
Corsicana           75  91  73  91  74 /   5  10   5  20   0
Temple              74  92  72  91  72 /   5  10   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       73  92  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$