Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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167
FXUS64 KFWD 161803 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1203 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017


.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are expected improve to VFR by 21z. East winds will
veer around to the southeast at 5 to 8 knots this afternoon.
Isolated showers are expected this afternoon mainly east of I-35.
The chances of showers at the area TAF sites is too low to include
in the TAFs. As the pressure gradient tightens across the region
due to a deepening lee side trough, winds will become southerly
around 10 knots after 06z and speeds will increase to around 15
knots by 17z Friday with some gusts to 25 knots. Ceilings are
expected to lower back into the MVFR category by 03z Friday and go
down into the IFR category by 07-08z. As deeper mixing occurs,
ceilings will improve back to MVFR by 17z Friday.

58

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 729 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
Quick update to add a mention of patchy dense fog down across
Central TX, mainly south of the I-20 corridor.

Weak winds aloft, coupled with the moist regime has facilitated
the development of some patchy dense fog, mainly across Central TX
per tower cams and surface observations. This fog should diminish
through the mid to late morning hours. At this time, coverage of
dense fog does not appear sufficient enough to necessitate a
dense fog advisory, but observations will be monitored closely.

24-Bain

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 334 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Low rain chances will continue during the short term period as a
diffuse frontal boundary has stalled across Central TX. Weak
ascent atop the cooler air to the north of this boundary has
yielded a few showers this morning.

For Today---The potential for showers will continue today as
low level flow becomes more southerly. While above normal warmth
is expected with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, widespread cloud
cover should be enough to keep temperatures from climbing too far
above seasonal values. With the breadth of moisture expected to
be confined to the lowest 200 to 300 mb of the troposphere, it`s
likely that rain amounts will be light. There may be a brief lull
in the coverage of echoes this afternoon as the flow aloft
subsides briefly.

Tonight, low level winds will increase and this should help drive
an uptick in shower activity. The best potential for rain will be
near and east of the HWY 287 corridor. Similar to previous
forecast periods, rainfall amounts should remain light. It`ll be
a mild night by mid-November standards courtesy of 10 mph
southerly flow and widespread cloud cover. Overnight low
temperatures are only expected to tumble down into the upper 50s
and 60s area-wide.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 334 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
/Friday through Wednesday/

Friday will be warm and breezy as southerly winds increase in
response to deep surface low pressure centered across the Central
High Plains. A downslope wind component coupled with warm air
advection and some afternoon sun will yield above normal
temperatures with highs from the middle 70s in the northeast to
the middle 80s in the west. Wind speeds may approach advisory
criteria in the afternoon, especially for areas that see the most
vigorous boundary layer mixing. Wind speeds will decrease a bit
after sunset Friday once the boundary layer decouples and the
surface low moves rapidly east, but it will still stay on the
breezy side.

A cold front will enter into the northwest zones during the pre-
dawn hours Saturday with a rapid progression southward during the
day. The front should have no problem reaching the Texas Coast on
Saturday afternoon, leaving North and Central Texas with strong
and gusty northerly winds, a clearing sky and cooler temperatures.
Afternoon highs Saturday will range from the middle 60s in the
northwest zones to the middle 70s in the south. A few showers may
accompany FROPA on Saturday but the best moisture and rain
chances will reside east of the forecast area. We will still
maintain some low PoPs across the eastern zones.

Wind speeds will decrease after sunset Saturday and rapid
radiational cooling will occur due to dry and clear conditions.
Low temperatures by sunrise Sunday will range from the middle 30s
in the northwest to the middle 40s in the far south. It appears
that winds will stay up just enough to keep all temperatures
above freezing.

Sunday/Sunday night will be clear, cool and calm with highs in
the lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Low level warm air advection will begin on Monday as surface high
pressure builds east and another surface low deepens across the
Northern and Central Plains. A shortwave is progged by the ECMWF
and GFS to move quickly across the state Monday, but with only
meager moisture return ahead of this system, we don`t anticipate
any precipitation.

The passage of the shortwave trough axis will bring large scale
subsidence to the region along with the passage of another cold
front on Tuesday. The front should not have any quality moisture
to work with so have kept a dry and cool forecast for both Tuesday
and Wednesday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  65  80  63  69 /  20  20  10   5   0
Waco                77  67  81  65  73 /  20  20  10   5   5
Paris               63  59  77  61  67 /  20  20  10  10  10
Denton              67  64  80  59  67 /  10  20  10   0   0
McKinney            66  63  77  61  68 /  20  20  10   5   0
Dallas              71  66  80  64  70 /  20  20  10   5   0
Terrell             70  65  79  64  70 /  20  20  10  10   5
Corsicana           74  66  79  64  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
Temple              77  67  81  64  74 /  20  20  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  63  83  58  67 /  10  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/58



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