Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 252334 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY UNCAPPED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FORCING OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS SO HAVE REMOVED THE VCTS FOR DFW
AT THIS TIME AND INCLUDED IT AT WACO BY 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
IT IS A QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WILL
REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST AS A TUTT LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE IS
SCHEDULED BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE RAP IS INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE TUTT. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THE TUTT APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. DESPITE
THIS...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL MOVE WEST AND NORTHWEST
INTO THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH JUST AN ISOLATED
MENTION ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE WILL REMAIN IN A TRANSITION PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
TO FURTHER PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS RICH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH BUT THE LATEST RUNS HAVE
AGAIN STARTED TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH BETTER
COVERAGE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHER...AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. BECAUSE OF THE
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE LINGERED POPS INTO SUNDAY AND ENDED THEM
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE GFS IS REALIZED AND THE
TROUGH IS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL END EARLIER. BENEFICIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT SOME
LOCATIONS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE RAIN MORE THAN OTHERS.

WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW 100 DEGREES. FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EXPECT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  98  77  98  77 /   5  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74  98  74 /   5  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  95  72  95  71 /   5  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  96  74  96  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            80  98  78  98  77 /   5  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           77  98  76  97  74 /   5  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         77  98  76  97  74 /   5  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  74  98  73 /   5  10  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.