Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 192237
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
637 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUN MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN
900-600 MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL
RAFL CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR
CHC SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB
THETA-E RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED
BY STRONG/INCREASING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON
ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY
HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE
THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN
THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3 HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE
TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH
SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND
FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY AND LARGE VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR
GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS NWRN IN IN
WAKE OF MIDDAY FROPA. KFWA BEST MOISTURE POOLING AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION PROFILE AFFORDED BY SHARPENING TROF...STILL VCSH
SHOULD COVER GIVEN OVERALL MODEST MOISTURE PROFILE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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