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000
FXUS63 KIWX 151934
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
334 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ROUTE 24 IN INDIANA
AND OHIO INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BUCKLE BACK NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

INITIAL BOUNDARY/LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WAS SETTLING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL AND WERE TRYING TO MOVE INTO
FAR SW SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH LIKE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST IT
HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN A COUNTY OR 2
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.

FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG IT. WITH MSTR PROFILE SO ANEMIC CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN EXTREMELY LOW CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS WITH ONLY
SLGT CHC INTO EARLY EVE FOLLOW BY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HANDFUL OF MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THURS AFTERNOON. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD AS FRONT SHIFTS NORTH/SOUTH WITH TIME
THROUGH THE DAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD SEE LOWS
DROP INTO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOW TO MID 50S FURTHER
SOUTH. BLEND OF TOP 3 MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO COOL
WITH STRONG MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE BLENDED
BETWEEN THESE 3 AND PAST FORECAST RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THETA E GRADIENT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RUN FOR SW AREAS
STARTING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN
SOUTH...WARRANTING LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE TIME BEING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO SUNDAY.

LARGE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PLAINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
ATTEMPTING TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY BE FORCED NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEW WEEK WITH A RETURN TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR
PROFILES. WITH MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SCT TO SCT AT BEST INTO TUESDAY. RAN WITH ALLBLEND
IN THESE PERIOD. MODELS VARYING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST WITH GFS/GEFS SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENING THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BY WEDS. ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHC POPS FOR WEDS BUT HELD SHY OF
LIKELY POPS WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED VCNTY OF KFWA AS OF 17Z. EXPECTING A
SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NW. NW FLOW AND LOWER DEWPTS HAS ARRIVED AT KSBN
WITH LITTLE OVERALL WX EXPECTED AS MAIN FOCUS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT. AT KFWA...CAN RULE OUT A STRAY HIGH BASED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIG IMPACT ON OPERATIONS.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME VARIABLE AS FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIP TONIGHT INTO THURS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS CNTRL INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...GREENAWALT/FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER


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