Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 171057
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
657 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Skies will begin to clear later this morning as high pressure
builds into the region accompanied by seasonably cool weather to
start the week. Much warmer weather can be expected by Wednesday
as the low level flow becomes southwest. Highs today and Monday
will be mostly in the 70s, but then approach 90 by the middle of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Surface analysis has cold front extending across central OH and
south-central IN with high pressure centered over the northern
great lakes region. Cooler drier Canadian high will provide a
pleasant short term forecast period with lots of sunshine and
lower humidities today and highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
Weak gradient over the area will allow lake breeze to develop this
afternoon which should keep temps a cooler mid 70s up near the
lake. A comfortable night in store as clear skies...light
winds...and lower humidities will provide ideal radiational
cooling for lows to dip into the upper 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Warm and increasingly muggy conditions with temps bouncing right
back to at or above normal for the long term period as plains
centered upper ridge expands eastward. Additional Pacific energy
streaming onshore Tuesday expected to establish a more zonal
northern stream flow and trending further south across the
northern plains and northern great lakes. Still anticipating
multiple upstream convective complexes initiating along quasi-
stationary surface boundary mid-late week that medium range
models can neither resolve spatially nor temporally given their
mesoscale nature. Adding further uncertainty to the pattern will
be the continual re-alignment of the surface boundary with each
MCS track and their subsequent outflow boundaries. Given this low-
confidence and low-predictability pattern...prudent to continue
to perform triage on blended POPs and maintain low-medium chance
and eliminate any mention of likely as no model skill exists in
this type of pattern to suggest otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Kept a mention of lower/MVFR CIGs at FWA as a TEMPO group as some
of these lower post frontal clouds may be able to develop/spread
into the area from the northeast and become a ceiling. Otherwise,
subsidence should increase enough to help skies begin to clear by
late morning and through the afternoon. Winds should stay light
as a weak pressure gradient remains over the area.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Skipper


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