Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 180046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
846 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...BUT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPANDING COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA. REGIONAL AMDAR SOUNDINGS STILL EXHIBITING A DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER WITH SIZABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOWEVER.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIP TONIGHT AND GIVEN THESE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING. UPDATED EVENING FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO REFRESH LATE
AFTERNOON WORDING AND TO SLIGHTLY DELAY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHRTWV OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS THE
GRTLKS/OH VALLEY TNGT/FRI. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH GULF
CUT OFF... 12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION FOR SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG
THE SFC CDFNT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  SOME
INDICATION THAT THE FRONT MAY BE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS
AFTN WITH RADAR ECHOES AND SFC OBS SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
FORMING KS-NRN MO-NW IL. BEST FORCING IN OUR AREA SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NW 1/2. HWVR... GIVEN LESS SUPPORT FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR CWA BY RAP/HRRR AND GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS... KEPT
POPS IN THIS AREA IN THE CHC RANGE. BETTER FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF
OUR CWA ON FRIDAY... SO TRENDED POPS LOWER IN THIS PERIOD.

DIURNAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY LIGHT WINDS...DRY
LOW LEVELS AND PERHAPS SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH SHOWERS NW...
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR EVERYWHERE. EXPECT LOWS
TO BE IN THE L-M40S...EXCEPT IN THE M-U30S WITH DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH A BETTER CHC OF STAYING DRY AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL DEEPER MIXING... BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
L-M60S SE FRIDAY WHILE NW SHOULD BE IN THE M-U50S...EXCEPT ONLY
M-U40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTG.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE TROFS BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
FAVORED THE GFS THIS PACKAGE WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH RECENT RUNS. GIVEN THIS CONSISTENCY...RAISED RAIN CHANCES A
LITTLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED CAPE. ALSO...GFS/BUFKIT PROFILES
INDICATE NARROW CAPE WITH LIMITED BULK/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MILD THIS PERIOD...EVEN CONSIDERED WARM GIVEN THE LINGERING SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS COLD PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...THE
GFS LOOKS TOO WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND 0C AND RECENT WARM BIAS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MID/UPPER FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH TEMPO -SHRA MENTION AT KSBN FROM 05Z-08Z. GIVEN
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE AT KSBN. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA...WITH
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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