Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 182005
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOITION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCRESINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUCT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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