Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 180808
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Cloudy skies and perhaps some lingering light drizzle will be
possible early this morning. The clouds will linger into early
afternoon then some partial clearing is possible. It will remain
dry and mild with highs today in the lower 40s and 45 to 50 on
Thursday. Rain chances return Thursday night into Friday, though
it will remain quite warm through the weekend with highs mainly in
the 50s and lows in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Deformation tied to a compact northern stream vort will exit sc
MI/far ne IN/nw OH by daybreak bringing an end to more organized
drizzle/light rain...though some patchy drizzle/fog could linger in
these areas through 13-14z. Dry otherwise today with weak cyclonic
west flow likely maintaining low clouds beneath inversion through
most of the day. Subsidence/dry air advection may afford a few
breaks in cloud cover later today. How quickly (if) this occurs will
determine how warm we get which remains of medium confidence.
Continued to side closer to slightly cooler guidance with
expectations for the cloudier solution to verify. Building heights
downstream of an upper low ejecting into the Central High Plains
will ensure more dry/fair wx otherwise into tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

An unseasonably mild and at times wet pattern is expected during the
long term period as several pacific systems eject ene out of a
Western US trough. The overall dearth of any real cold air will keep
any precipitation liquid in odd/blocky pattern as significant
positive height anomalies emerge over Eastern Canada.

Models remain in good agreement in opening upper low over CO/NM
northeast through the region later Thursday into early Friday.
Overall deformation/fgen along associated frontal zone will be
undergoing a weakening trend as it lifts northeast, though still
expect a widespread rainfall (0.40-0.80") given highly anomalous
subtropical moisture plume into system.

Deeper southwest flow then becomes better established later Friday
into Saturday in response to Western/Central US trough amplification.
Mostly cloudy and mainly dry conditions are expected with moist low
levels and any subtle waves in this flow possibly touching off a few
showers. Saturday looks to be the warmest day with temps potentially
nearing record levels if there are any substantial breaks in
cloud cover.

The next low pressure center to emerge out of strong southern
stream jet looks to take a farther south track into the Lower Mid
MS/TN Valleys by later Sunday under impressive southeast Canada
block. The bulk of ensemble guidance then lifts the elongating
occlusion northeast early next week. Deformation/Trowal on nnw
fringe of system my bring periods of rain to the region Sunday
into early next week with confidence on timing/track at this range
very low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1243 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Visibilities to continue improvement as upper level shortwave
energy continues to move east into the Lower Great Lakes this
morning. Still IFR ceilings will likely persist in cyclonic low
level flow with low level cold pool enhancing inversion through
the morning hours with even a brief dip to LIFR 003-004 possible
in 09-14 utc timeframe at both sites, though have remained a bit
more positive as chances of sustained LIFR appear marginal given
slightly drier low level air upstream. Gradual improvement from
IFR to MVFR ceilings by early afternoon with eventual scouring out
by late day/evening expected as subsidence wins over.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Murphy


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