Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241926 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
325 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL PRIMARILY
BE IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIR/LOW HUMIDITY WX WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING AS A
1022 MB SFC HIGH FOLDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY MIXING OUT INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL MIN TEMPS FOR LATE JULY.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DAMPEN INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE FLATTENING NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY TRANSLATES EAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 18-00Z.
A WEAK LEAD PERTURBATION IN SEMI-ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM AND RAMP UP
IN LLJ IN ADVANCE OF LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/IOWA LATER TONIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY
DRYING UP WITH SEWD PROGRESSION THEREAFTER INTO DRY/STABLE AIR.
STILL COULD SEE A SHRINKING AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW/7H THETA-E ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW
WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT SW OVR SRN BC THIS AFTN WILL PINWHEEL EWD INTO SAT BFR
MERGING W/DEEP UPR TROUGH DVLPG EWD OF JAMES BAY IN RESPONSE TO
DRAMATIC UPSTREAM BLOCKING DVLPG THROUGH WRN CANADA THANKS IN PART
TO TYPHOON MATMA.

AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...COOL AIR OF LATE WILL ERODE RAPIDLY
AS SW FLW DEEPENS AHD OF A DVLPG FNTL BNDRY FM THE UPR MIDWEST SWWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. EWD FOLD OF SIG LL THETA-E RIDGE AND EWD ADVTN
OF STOUT EML POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LATER SAT AND AGAIN ON
SUN. BUT AS YET STILL VERY UNCERTAIN TIED TO TIMING OF SEWD
DIG OF ABSORBING SRN CANADA DISTURBANCE...POSITIONING OF SFC FNTL
BNDRY AND NEWD EXTENT OF LL MSTR RTN. WILL CONT W/GENERAL MID RANGE
CHC POPS SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN.

OTRWS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS TO AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE
LAKES/OH VALLEY EARLY NXT WEEK AS AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTN MORE AKIN
TO MID WINTER TAKES SHAPE ACRS NOAM. TEMPS MUCH BLO NORMAL XPCD
MON-TUE BFR MODERATING THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-12 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM/LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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