Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261950
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY FORM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
INDIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

PERSISTENCE IS THE FORECAST TOOL OF CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA HAS
ALLOWED FOR POCKET OF SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...ALTHOUGH MIXING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LIKELY TO TAKE THESE
DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER. EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE ALSO
SHOULD ALLOW FOR POCKET OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS TO PERSIST
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPS IN GENERALLY THE SAME LOCATIONS WHICH
EXPERIENCED THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN
ABOVE...AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE PROFILES...SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. DID CONTEMPLATE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...BUT WILL LET EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS WITH
CONFIDENCE JUST A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME IN DELINEATING MOST FAVORED
AREAS IN TERMS OF HEADLINES. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER QUIET DAY ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE IN
COMPARISON TO TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED. A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT SHOULD BE
MODIFIED BY WEAK EASTERLY GRADIENT...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST PROVIDES
AN EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. AN UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS MON INTO
TUE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO DIVERGE BEYOND MIDWEEK SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE
IN THE ONGOING FCST. AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
FCST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS THU INTO FRI. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE QUICKER IN SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NW INDIANA THU THAN
THAT OF THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FCST. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF UNTIL THE END OF FCST PERIOD
WHEN TEMPS LOWERS TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

POTENTIAL OF MORE FOG TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. MORNING
FOG HAS ERODED ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA HOWEVER WITH SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HIGHEST CROSSOVER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHEAST INDIANA AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE COULD ANCHOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA.
DID MAINTAIN PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE WITH
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT KFWA. AT KSBN...WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO MVFR
VSBYS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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