Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291923
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
323 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TODAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR TODAYS RAINFALL. DEFORMATION AREA IN BASE OF TROUGH OVER NW
INDIANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BUT FINALLY SHOWING
SIGNS LAST HOUR OR SO. WITH CONTINUED WEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND UPPER
TROUGH EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING LEADS TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS. THEN
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WHERE
SKIES CLEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIRES CONVECTIVE
MODELS INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET CONVECTION GOING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST FROM MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING
MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG BUT SHEAR REMAINS WEAK WITH 15-20 KNOTS
COINCIDENT WITH THESE MAX CAPE VALUES. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE AS USUAL SO OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE MOST LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
POSSIBLE BUT MORE LOCALIZED NATURE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN US THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK WILL WEAKEN EAST BY THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL
TIMING/TRACK OF SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST LIKELY CLIPS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ASSOCIATED WEAK FORCING ALONG ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE SFC-750 MB LAYER SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST-SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL EAST LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF FORCING
STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW DROPS SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT
LOWERED POPS WITHIN STABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DURING THESE
PERIODS. RETAINED LOW-MID CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO RETURN NORTH AND
SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED IMPULSES DROP THROUGH ON NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF A BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPING AREA OF DEFORMATION RAINFALL GOING NEAR
KSBN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DRIFTING EAST OF TERMINAL
SHORTLY. OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH DIFFICULTY IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC EVENT AT TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD
COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD FOG BECOMES BUT EXPECTING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPS IN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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