Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 311544
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Forecast looks on track today and just few minor adjustments to
some hourly weather elements like sky cover. Another nice summer
day in store for central IL as sunny skies this morning become
partly to mostly sunny by afternoon as scattered cumulus clouds
5-6k ft develop. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop
from Bloomington to Paris ne from mid afternoon into early evening.
This due to large upper level trof over the eastern states with
556 dm 500 mb low just sw of James Bay Canada. Most areas will
again be dry today with highs in the lower 80s, dewpoints in the
lower 60s and WSW winds less than 10 mph.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Fairly
light west-northwest flow over central Illinois with a large scale
trough over the eastern U.S. will continue. Slightly lighter
winds this morning have allowed patchy, thin, and shallow fog to
form and this will dissipate over the next few hours as daytime
heating begins. Local IFR/MVFR conditions should be expected until
13-14Z. By afternoon, daytime heating will allow for scattered cloud
cover at around 5 kft MSL with isolated shra/tsra...mainly KPRG-
KC75 northward. Isolated MVFR conditions can`t be ruled out, but
will be too low probability for mention in area TAFs. After
00Z...any shower activity/cloud cover diminishing. Winds
increasing to W5-8 kts by 15Z...becoming light and variable by
00Z.

Onton

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
Very little changing in this forecast. Deep low over southeastern
Canada keeping the eastern half of the country dominated by the
500mb trof. Northwesterly flow over the Plains and into the
Midwest. Ridging over the west building up some warm air that will
start to edge towards the region by the end of the forecast
period. Diurnal element to cloud cover and some shower activity
possible to the northeast today...and a series of waves diving
into and around the upper trof will bring better chances for
scattered showers/thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Watching
forecast soundings for tomorrows potential thunderstorms and
severe weather chances. Forecast drying out for the latter half of
the weekend and into Monday until another wave moves on the
western coast, kicking the eastern trof out of the stagnant
pattern. A more progressive series of waves begins to drive better
rain chances for the remainder of the forecast.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Mild again today with light winds, just below normal max temps.
Sunshine and afternoon clouds with some of the heavier clouds to
the northeast possibly providing a sparse shower. Tomorrow,
chances improve with a wave diving into the trof and enhancing the
afternoon instability. Wind profiles very weak, but lower freezing
level and pretty good lapse rates tomorrow afternoon could result
in some good updrafts should thunderstorms develop. SPC has put
the area in a see text for marginal hail threat with the daytime
heating/shortwave thunderstorms  in the afternoon.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...
Models beginning to send another wave into the trof for Saturday,
with almost a repeat of Friday with similar forecast soundings.
Beginning to trend the forecast to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for Saturday as well should the signal continue.
Though the thunderstorm development will be countered by
increasing subsidence with ridge moving closer to the area. High
pressure dominating remains of weekend as the sfc ridge axis moves
into the region. Winds remain light and variable and dry forecast
as the upper trof finally starts to progress across into the NE.
Chances for more significant weather starting to return Tues/Wed
as a more active and progressive flow sets up across the country.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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