Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 020128
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
828 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

CLOUDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WAS ABLE TO FEED SOME DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EXPECTED
TO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. WITH A LOT LESS
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
FROM 50 TO 55 OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS. MAKING ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHOULD HAVE AN UPDATE OUT BY 845 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.  19Z/2PM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF A PARIS
TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.  HRRR SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE NO BREAKS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED.  HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 TO THE MIDDLE
50S FAR SOUTH AROUND FLORA AND OLNEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL IL
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S WILL RISE TO THE LOW 80S BY
THURSDAY. BY LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDWEEK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AFTER THIS FEATURE...LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ECMWF AND GFS CARVE OUT A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A
STALLED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT THE MVFR
CIGS AROUND AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE BREAKS DEVELOPING
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE LATEST
SOUNDING AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
EASTERLY WHICH WILL PUSH THE CLOUD COVER TO OUR EAST BACK OVER
OUR AREA AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MAY HAVE TO GO
WITH A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS PIA...BMI AND CMI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING AS THEY ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. IT MAY
TAKE A WHILE FOR DEC AND SPI TO GET RID OF THE CLOUDS THIS EVE
BASED OFF THE LATEST VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS SO WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 03Z WITH SOME LOW VFR CIGS. WE SHOULD
SEE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS
NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH


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