Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 260450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 904 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Have been updating pops/wx to account for current trends and
thinking for the rest of the night. Skies are partly cloudy in the
east and mostly clear in the west. However, satellite loop shows
lower clouds west of the area beginning to move toward the area
for the remainder of the night. Will make some adjustments to the
cloud cover in the forecast as well as another tweak to the
pops/wx. Most everything else in forecast looks fine. Update out


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

A weak shortwave lifting northeast across central IL this
afternoon and exiting IL by sunset, will be accompanied by a band
of showers and thunderstorms. So far this afternoon most of the
convection has been north of I-80 and west of I-39 and another
narrow band southeast of Springfield to Evansville. More
widespread convection was over western KY/TN. Forecast models
continue to develop scattered showers/thunderstorms over central
and eastern IL through early evening with widespread coverage over
northern and southern IL. More convection possible by late
tonight/early Thu morning with next weak disturbance moving into
IL. CAPES are 1-2K J/kg late this afternoon/early evening and
highest in nw CWA. 0-6km Bulk Shear is 20-30 kts and highest in
western CWA, so fairly weak organization of thunderstorms expected
rest of today. The surface dewpoints fairly moist in low to mid
60s over central/southeast IL though moisture is fairly shallow
over CWA with 850 mb dewpoints of 6-8C with deeper moisture in AR
and sw MO. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms late
afternoon/early evening over IL, with best risk west of IL where
slight risk in eastern KS. SSW breezes 10-20 mph and gusts 20-30
mph this afternoon to diminish to 5-10 mph after sunset. Mild lows
overnight in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

A persistent summer-like pattern will continue throughout the
extended forecast. The main movement in the upper level pressure
pattern will be the progression of the 300 mb low from southern
Arizona Thursday morning to central Nebraska by Friday evening, and
eventually becoming an open wave over Iowa on Saturday reaching
Wisconsin on Sunday. The Bermuda High off the East Coast will hold
firm across the southeast states during that time, limiting the
eastward progression of the western US trough. At the surface, all
frontal boundaries will remain in the northern and central Plains.
Therefore, triggers for afternoon and evening convection will be
more difficult to pinpoint. The one period that appears to have more
agreement in widespread coverage of showers/storms looks to be
late Thursday night but especially Friday as a weak surface wave
progresses up through eastern Iowa and far western Illinois.
Instability parameters look marginal for severe storms, with deep
layer shear at 25 kts and MUCAPES of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. If we get
a break in the clouds for increased insolation, we could see more
of the area utilize the higher MUCAPE values.

For now, have concentrated the only likely PoPs of the extended
forecast in Knox county Thursday night and all but the far
eastern counties on Friday.

Beyond that, we went with lower trends in storm chances for the last
half of the holiday weekend, with just slight chance PoPs for a
majority of our forecast area Sunday night, Memorial Day, and Monday
night. That is in response to upper level ridging and a weak
surface high that passes over Illinois per the ECMWF and GFS.
There will be spotty showers/storms that bubble up in the summer-
time airmass during the afternoon/eve, but coverage and intensity
appear very limited at this point. Better chances start again
Tuesday through Wednesday as the next upper level wave makes its
way toward Illinois from the SW states.

The warmest day of the next week looks to be Thursday, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Friday and Saturday may only reach the low 80s
due to increased precip and cloud cover. Highs will creep toward the
mid 80s on Sunday and Memorial Day due to a bit more sunshine.
Dewpoints will remain the mid to upper 60s through Sunday, making
for uncomfortable conditions for at least the first 2/3rds of the
holiday weekend. Dewpoints dip to the lower 60s for Memorial Day
through Wednesday, which still can feel muggy with highs in the
low 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Believe VFR conditions will prevail through the night and possibly
into tomorrow as well. Question is, will the convection in
northeast MO expand and continue across the state overnight and
into western IL by early tomorrow morning. Short range convection
models indicate that by the time the MCS arrives, it will just be
scattered showers. Even though models are not handling things well
at the moment, this has been the trend last couple of days. So,
though will be bringing in more clouds into the area by morning,
will only have VCSH at all TAF sites in the morning. Next question
then is will there be pcpn during the afternoon tomorrow? Any
outflow boundary form late tonight will probably wash out and the
area could be too cloudy to really get the instability going.
Models always struggle with convective features and due to
uncertainty of boundary location in the afternoon, will keep VCTS
in the TAFs for afternoon and early evening and let later shifts
reevaluate for better location and timing. Winds will be south to
southwest through the period.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.