Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 120529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1129 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Issued at 913 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Radar shows light precip continuing to diminish as it moves
southeast through the area and see only three observation sites
reporting precip at this time. Will be making adjustments to the
precip area and wording, as most of the precip has been liquid and
not snow flurries. Also, precip will not be the forecast very long
and will definitely be done before midnight. Decreasing clouds
overnight/toward morning still looks like a good forecast. Other
adjustment will be to winds as northwest winds across areas
northwest of I-55 still showing gusts to 25-30 mph. Update will be
out shortly.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A strong cold front is currently making its way across the
forecast area. West to northwest gusts in excess of 40 mph have
been occurring behind the front, especially in the downward
momentum surge immediately behind the front. These relatively
strong gusts will linger into at least midday Tuesday given the
strong CAA and tight surface pressure gradient behind the front.
The cold advection will help push tomorrow`s high temperatures 15
to 20 degrees cooler than those seen today.

Do not expect much precipitation in the wrap-around cloud shield
tonight behind the front, despite current radar indications. Much
of the energy within the upper-level wave driving the front is
shearing off to the east and the precipitation coverage/intensity
has been decreasing. However, a few sprinkles or flurries can`t be
ruled out through this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Northwest upper-level flow will persist across the area into the
weekend. Our recent string of clipper-type waves within this flow
regime will persist, with the next waves expected to arrive around
Wednesday & Friday. However, as has been the case lately, minimal
precipitation is expected with these clippers locally.

The upper-level flow trends more zonal for the weekend. This may
eventually signal a trend toward more moderate temperatures than
we have seen lately. There is a short wave that will approach the
area from the west or southwest by late in the weekend as the
expected pattern shift occurs. However, the model consensus with
respect to the associated precipitation is poor and only have
minimal PoPs at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR cigs below 2kft will quickly lift to above 2kft over the next
several hours at all sites, though PIA is already above 2kft.
Based on satellite loops, back edge and scattering of clouds will
also occur in next 2-4hrs at all sites. Then skies will become
clear for rest of the overnight and through tomorrow. Winds will
remain very gusty with gusts of around 30kts at all
sites...overnight and through tomorrow, though some weakening of
the gradient is expected tomorrow late morning. By late afternoon
winds will diminish, but then there will be a lose of gusts after




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