Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 270830
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

An unseasonably warm day with highs near 80F expected over central
and southeast IL today. This due to 850 mb temps of 16-18C plus breezy
ssw winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph by afternoon
as 999 mb low pressure over sw KS ejects ne into western MO by
sunset today. Still about 5 degrees shy of record highs in the mid
80s today Oct 27. Partly to mostly sunny skies this morning (and
over southeast IL most of today), with skies becoming mostly
cloudy during the afternoon over central IL. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible nw of I-55 late this afternoon, but most of
central IL to stay dry through sunset today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Broad upper trough over the Rockies will dig east into the Midwest
overnight and into the Great Lakes region Tue. This will eject
surface low pressure ne from sw KS into northern lower MI/eastern
upper MI by sunrise Tue, dragging cold front ese across central IL
overnight and passing through the Wabash river valley in southeast
IL early Tue morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms to
become likely from wnw to ese during tonight, with southeast IL
likely not seeing the rain until late tonight and Tue morning.
Instability will be somewhat limited, with low CAPEs up to 400
J/kg although 0-6km bulk shear does reach 40-50 knots as the front
moves in, so will maintain a chance of thunder. SPCs 5% risk of
severe storms is over central OK this afternoon/evening and over
OH and eastern half of KY on Tue. The rain will end over eastern/se
IL by midday Tue with clouds decrease from west to east during
the day Tue. Mostly sunny skies expected over much of area Tue
afternoon.

1021 mb high pressure settles into IL by sunset Wed and ensures
dry and cooler weather during mid week. A weak short wave to clip
through IL Thu afternoon but appears too dry to support any rain
shower chances, perhaps some sprinkles. Much cooler air arrives
over IL behind this clipper Friday into this weekend with a
freeze looking more likely Friday night over central IL as
stronger Canadian high pressure 1034 mb noses down into WI/IL by
dawn Sat. Lows near freezing again possible Saturday night over
east central IL. High temperatures Fri-Sunday range from upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected until around 00Z Tuesday. Chances for
thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, mainly west of a
KSPI-KBMI line, but MVFR cigs/vsbys unlikely until 00Z
Tuesday. After 00Z Tuesday, lower ceilings, likely reaching MVFR
category and isolated IFR/MVFR visibilities will spread eastward
across Illinois.

tonight, warm frontal boundary to push northeastward across
central IL, with main impact being a veering of winds toward more
southerly direction along with strong low-level jet producing low-
level wind shear at most central IL TAF sites. These 35-40kt winds
at around 2000ft will mix down to the surface Monday morning once
the nocturnal inversion is eroded, resulting in southerly winds
gusting to 25-30 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton






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