Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 271351
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
851 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE
LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ITS DIURNAL
WEAKENING CYCLE. DESPITE DISSIPATING TREND...IT APPEARS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KILX CWA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS PER THE LATEST HRRR. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDDAY
ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING COMPLEX TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/AREA OBS SUGGEST
THE MCV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. GIVEN THIS
POSITION AND AN EXPECTED E/NE TRAJECTORY...THINK BEST CHANCE AT
RENEWED CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LOW. FURTHER WEST...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY AND
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT SOME HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. OVER MOST OF THE AREA THEY WILL BE SCATTERED...BUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE THEY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN OUT SOUTHEAST WITH POPS LOWERING AS YOU GO
NORTHWEST. BELIEVE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THEN
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH TO BETWEEN 80 AND 85.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AT LEAST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.  SOME LOW POPS STILL IN
THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION, OTHERWISE
SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE.
HOWEVER, JUST AS QUICKLY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE COUNTRY.  THE LOW DIGGING IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS HOWEVER IS A BIT WEAKER IN THE LAST FEW RUNS AND THE HEIGHTS
NOT QUITE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY IN THE MODELS.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
PATTERN MAY NOT PAN OUT TO BE EXACTLY AS DEPICTED, MIDWEST STILL IN
LINE FOR ANOTHER UNSETTLED END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER CHANCES
COMING BACK IN TOMORROW NIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES... WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
BRIEFLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS.
SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA WITH BLOWOFF FROM A
SMALL MCS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS. RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA SO WILL HAVE VCSH AT ALL SITES TODAY UNTIL
FROPA...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 16Z AT PIA AND THEN 17Z AT SPI AND
BMI...FOLLOWED BY DEC AT 19Z AND CMI AT 21Z. ONCE FROPA OCCURS
SKIES SHOULD JUST BE SCATTERED REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THEN
BECOMING CLEAR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING FROPA. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


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