Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 211941
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Weak convection today and associated cooling has kept the warm
front from redeveloping north of the forecast area as originally
expected. Isolated storms may still be possible near the boundary
that extends from near Springfield east to near Paris through the
remainder of the afternoon. However, ridging will once again build
into the area overnight and the delayed translation of the warm
front into Wisconsin is likely to occur late tonight or Thursday
morning as strong insolation should assist in mixing. Temps should
be higher across central Illinois compared to today due to the sun
early on. Low-level moisture will increase as southerly flow
becomes more prominant during the day but with 700mb temps progged
to climb 4-5C in 24 hours and moving well above 10C capping of
significant convection seems likely. We will keep any chc pops
confined to near I-70 and southeastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Model suite from 12z continues to push frontal system southeast
into the forecast area late Thursday Night in conjunction with a
short wave expected to move across the upper Mississippi Valley.
The approach of the front should correspond with the period of best
moisture advection from the remnants of Cindy and may lead to a
brief period of heavier rain along and behind the front across
central Illinois between midnight and Friday morning. Still some
uncertianty of the evolution of the front and its interaction with
the tropical moisture particularly across southeast Illinois
Friday. Will retain likely PoPs southeast of I-57 with an
diminishing trend from northwest to southeast as the front sags
southeast and remant circulation center moves far enough east to
cut off overrunning potential.

Clouds and cold advection behind the front should keep temps
noticably cooler Friday. The cool weather should persist into
early next week as the area remains in cool northwest flow and 850
mb temps drop into the single digits through Monday prior to
recovering by midweek. Several weak shortwaves will move through
the northwest flow bringing periodic clouds and maybe a slight
chance of a shower, but overall dry weather should dominate the
are from the weekend into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Weak convective cluster moving along and north of I-74 may impact
KPIA to KCMI this afternoon. Cluster has limited low-level moisture
to work with and will cover with VCTS. Any precip that does occur
should be brief.

Latest model suite is slowing progress of frontal system southward
Thursday and is bringing low-level moisture northward associated
with remnants of tropical storm Cindy. MVFR ceilings may be
approaching from the south toward the end of the TAF valid period.
Later forecasts will likely bring these CIGS into at least KSPI
and KDEC.

Otherwise light winds and VFR conditions can be expected through
the valid period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Barker



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