000
FXUS63 KILX 060908
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
308 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

Another round of snow is expected across southeast Illinois today,
with additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches south of I-70.

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday

Stationary front will remain in place along the spine of the
Appalachians today, while another wave of low pressure rides
northeastward along the boundary. After a lull in the
precipitation early this morning, a renewed bout of snow will
spread into southeast Illinois by mid to late morning and persist
through the afternoon. While this wave is expected to be a bit
further southeast than the first disturbance that tracked through
the region last evening, very light snow or flurries will spread
as far northwest as a Jacksonville to Bloomington line. The
heavier snow will be confined to locations along and southeast of
a Paris to Shelbyville line.

Total accumulations from this storm system from last evening
through this afternoon will be highest south of I-70, where 7 to
11 inches will be common. Amounts will steadily decrease further
northwest, with 4 to 7 inches along I-70, 2 to 4 inches along a
Paris to Shelbyville line, and an inch or less from Danville to
Taylorville.

Will maintain just a slight chance for snow across the far SE KILX
CWA this evening, followed by clearing skies and colder conditions
overnight. Low temperatures will dip into the single digits, with
the coldest readings across the far NW around Galesburg and the
far SE over the deep snow cover south of I-70. Despite full
sunshine on Saturday, high temps will remain in the teens to
around 20 degrees.

Next system of interest approaches from the southwest Saturday
night: however, with very cold/dry airmass initially in place,
think any precip will hold off until Sunday despite models trying
to introduce light snow after midnight. Forecast soundings remain
quite dry and only gradually moisten from the top-down on Sunday,
suggesting precip may have a hard time developing for awhile. Have
trimmed POPs to slights across the north Sunday morning before
going with low chance POPs across the board Sunday afternoon and
night. While precip type will initially be light snow, encroaching
dry air at mid-levels could lead to a loss of ice crystals Sunday
afternoon/night. As a result, will include freezing drizzle in the
forecast. Overall QPF amounts will likely remain very light, as
deepest moisture remains locked up further southeast near a
frontal boundary lifting northward into the Tennessee and Ohio
River Valleys. Snowfall totals will therefore only amount to a
couple tenths of an inch at best. Will need to carefully monitor
the threat for light icing and potentially slick roadways late
Sunday if freezing drizzle does indeed materialize as current
forecast soundings suggest.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Once weekend system passes, another chunk of Arctic air will
settle southward into the Midwest early next week, resulting in
high temps in the lower 20s and overnight lows in the single
digits. Models continue to indicate a return to a more zonal flow
pattern by the middle and end of the week. This will allow temps
to slowly moderate, with readings perhaps rising back above
freezing by Friday. While a few fast-moving weak disturbances may
pass through the region, no major winter systems are expected in
the extended.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

Brunt of accumulating snows along with winter storm to stay
southeast of central IL airports through Friday closer to a frontal
boundary over central WV into se TN and central MS/LA. VFR
conditions expected through Friday nw of I-55 with MVFR vsbys
and ceilings developing with light snow along I-72 late tonight into
Friday with ceilings lowering to 2-3k ft with vsbys as low as 2-4
miles Friday as short wave riding ne along the frontal boundary
tugs the light snow further nw into parts of central IL,
especially along I-72 on Friday. IFR conditions should stay se of
SPI/DEC/CMI overnight and Friday. Clouds to scattered our or clear
from nw to se between 01Z-04Z happening first at PIA and last at
CMI. NNW winds around 10 kts tonight to be 10-13 kts on Friday and
7-10 kts Friday evening.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ067-068-
071>073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ056-
057-061>063-066.

&&

$$