Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 300435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Issued at 844 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Mostly clear skies expected across central IL overnight along with
light winds as a general high pressure area remains just south of
the area. Diurnal cumulus field has dissipated while some
scattered thin high clouds are drifting over the area from the
west. A few showers/thunderstorms over NE Missouri continue this
evening...but are showing movement to the south and should
diminish with further loss of heating overnight. An arc of showers
north of I-88 associated with a shortwave crossing far northern IL
should follow a similar course before reaching central IL.
Temperatures currently in the mid 70s...expected to reach the low
60s overnight. Only minor updates this evening for hourly
temperature trends and cloud cover.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have exited east of the
Wabash river at mid afternoon. A weak front has recently pushed east
of the Wabash river with breezy WNW winds behind the front bringing
in drier air. Dewpoints range from the mid 50s to lower 60s over
central IL to 64-68F along and southeast of a Robinson to Flora
line. Diurnally driven scattered cumulus cloud field with bases of 5-
8k ft will dissipate at sunset leaving fair skies much of tonight
with nearby 1020 mb high pressure over AR and southern MO. Breezy
WNW winds 8-16 mph and gusts of 20-28 mph this afternoon will
diminish light after sunset. A weak short wave over central Iowa
will track east across northern IL/IN and southern WI tonight
keeping isolated convection north of CWA. Lows tonight mostly in the
lower 60s which similar MET/MAV guidance reflects.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Model agreement is pretty good with respect to the weather pattern
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next week.
Temperatures will average slightly above normal into midweek until a
storm system moves through the area (highs in the 80s, lows in the
60s). Then, temperatures will trend toward normal or a little below
(highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s) to end the forecast period.

A quiet start to the day is anticipated Monday with high pressure in
place at the surface as well as weak upper-level ridging. However,
by late in the day, southerly low level return flow will develop
over at least western portions of the forecast area. This return
flow will help low-level moisture increase again across the area,
prompting modest diurnal instability. This instability may result in
mainly diurnally driven showers/storms late Monday
afternoon/evening, and again Tuesday afternoon/evening. However,
upper-level support is lacking and do not expect significant
organization or coverage with convection that occurs.

By Wednesday into Thursday, a more organized threat of
showers/thunderstorms is anticipated as a northern stream wave and
associated frontal system cross the area. However, even with this
system, the threat of severe storms looks low.

Quieter and somewhat cooler weather is expected behind the midweek
system to end the week. However, another (weaker) northern stream
wave may bring another chance of showers/storms to the area to
finish the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours...however there is a
slight chance a few thunderstorms may approach terminals
along/west of I-55 after 18Z. The probability of any storms
affecting terminals is too low for mention at this point.
Otherwise...scattered cumulus cloud development around 5000 feet
AGL expected to develop after 18Z...gradually dissipating after
00Z. Winds west up to 6 kts through 00Z...expected to turn
southerly after 00Z.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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