871
FXUS63 KILX 121947
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances (20-50%) for showers and storms are advertised
  through the upcoming week, though not everyone will see rain.

- Temperatures will be seasonal through Sunday, then turn warmer
  this week. A cold front later in the week could bring a period
  of cooler temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...A Few Storms Through Late This Afternoon...

An upper trough spinning over the International border north of here
will push a weak cold front through the area today. Early afternoon
surface analysis shows the front positioned from roughly Lacon to
Jacksonville, with west-northwest winds and somewhat lower dewpoints
behind it. Thunderstorms have developed well ahead of the boundary
in a weakly sheared, marginally unstable environment over eastern
Illinois. The threat for this should come to an end here quickly
as storms push into Indiana.

...Summer-Like Warmth, Daily Precipitation Chances This Week...

The previously mentioned upper trough will begin lifting northward
into Canada tonight, though broad troughing will remain in place
through the rest of the weekend. The cold front will drop south of
the area late tonight and then stall out over southern Illinois.
Precipitation chances for Sunday have increased from the previous
forecast due to a further north track of a shortwave trough
originating over the central Plains. This wave will lift into the
middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday, sending the stationary front
back northward into the area. Scattered storm chances (20-40%)
will increase by Sunday afternoon with surface ridging putting an
end to activity by the evening hours.

Daily chances for precipitation will be seen through the new
week, with the highest chances (40-60%) expected by mid to late
week. Early week precipitation chances are expected to be lower
(20-30%) and more isolated due to large-scale subsidence with
upper ridging.

Temperatures will steadily increase this week as mid-level heights
climb with the building ridge. Longer range guidance shows a
stronger cold front moving through late in the week, potentially
bringing a cool down by the weekend. However, timing differences in
the front`s arrival has resulted in a low predictability forecast.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Low stratus has led to MVFR ceilings over a good portion of the
state to start the day. A cold front positioned just west of the
Illinois River is in the process of pushing east, with stratus
thinning out behind it. Scattered showers and storms out ahead of
the front will lift northeast over eastern Illinois this afternoon,
likely only impacting KCMI (30% chance). Primary hazards would be
strong wind gusts and visibility reduced from heavy rainfall. Storms
so far today have had wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

Southwest winds will shift to the northwest behind the front tonight
with speeds remaining below 10 kts. Winds become light and variable
going into Sunday morning, then take on a westerly direction by late
morning or afternoon.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$