Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181131 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
631 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Updated the AVIATIN discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Average to below average confidence in the short term due to
continued model disagreement, especially toward the end of the
period.

Weak upper level energy passing across an inverted surface trough to
our south has produced isolated showers over most of our CWA early
this morning. The trough is expected to lift slightly north and east
today therefore the area most susceptible for precipitation will
shift to the southeast half of our CWA. There is just enough
elevated instability this afternoon to mention thunder.

In the wake of the upper level energy the region should be dry
tonight, but with another surge of moisture and the passage of
another short wave, we could see light precipitation again mainly
over the southeast half of our CWA on Wednesday. Again just enough
elevated instability Wednesday afternoon to mention thunder. In the
wake of this upper level disturbance, Wednesday night should be dry.

The best chances for showers and thunderstorms in the short term
period will be Thursday into Thursday night with the approach and
passage of a cold front. The timing and coverage of this event is
where models diverge the most. At this juncture our area is not
outlooked for anything above and beyond general thunderstorms, but
with the combination of the cold front, surface dewpoints around 60,
and decent 0-6 KM bulk shear, a severe thunderstorm or two is
certainly not out of the question, especially Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

At the beginning of the period, the upper flow will be zonal with
plenty of moisture around. There will be a frontal boundary situated
just to our south. This scenario will warrant at least some chance
type POPs on Friday.

A strong shortwave digs south into the central/southern Plains by
later on Friday. A surface low eventually develops and moves
east/northeast towards our area. However, there are still large
differences in the timing and track of this system among the models.

Despite those differences, it looks like a pretty rainy period from
Friday night thru Saturday night. The actual sfc low comes plowing
through the area Saturday afternoon or early evening and that is
when the dry slot intrudes on the area. So there will be a period
where we will see a lull before some wrap around type precipitation
associated with the upper level low re-enters the area late Saturday
night into Sunday morning/afternoon.  Wind fields aloft will be
condusive for some organized convection. Best sfc moisture will be
across our southern areas at this time however, but we have several
days to fine tune this part of our forecast. Instability parameters
are not off the charts by any means, but will be enough to allow for
strong to severe thunderstorm possibilities Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Lingering precipitation will be possible across west KY/southwest IN
Sunday evening but by Monday morning, we should be clearing out
everywhere. High pressure builds in on Monday and we will not see a
big change in temperatures behind this system, as upper level
heights actually rise as a ridge builds in.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

With the exception of KEVV, MVFR cigs along with VCSH possible
today, VFR through most of the period, then possible MVFR fog at
the end of the period, especially at KCGI/KPAH. Winds will
generally be variable AOB 5 knots through most of the period, then
become southerly by the end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...CW



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