Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
339 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Weak, moisture-starved cold front now making its way into the
forecast area will continue to push southeast across the region
this morning and should be south into TN before noon. The front
will serve to cool temps back toward normal for the next day or
two, with high temps mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
lows in the 40s to near 50 at night.

The main features in the short term portion of the forecast
remain the mid lvl short wave and associated cold frontal
passage Wed/Wed night. The models continue to insist the first
half of Wednesday will be dry, as the front, taking shape in the
Plains states, races into Missouri. H50 height falls across the
upper Midwest help dig aforementioned trof across the Mississippi
River Valley, and allow the surface front to approach our western
portions of the forecast area by 00Z Thursday. This will spread
small chance of showers/storms across our northwestern tier
counties Wed afternoon.

The front effectively makes its west to east passage across our FA
Wed night. Marginally supportive MUCapes, Showalters, and K indices
all support the inclusion of thunder, but wane as the night wears
on. The system will race on out/across the Ohio valley thru the
daytime Thursday, with High pressure at the surface, and aloft,
building into our Region from the west in its wake.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High surface pressure will dominate the weather picture at the start
of the extended forecast period, under northwesterly flow aloft. Low
level return flow on the backside of the high will commence early

The next mid level shortwave and sfc cold frontal system is progged
to affect our area (best PoP in northern half) by Friday night by
most of the models. During recent runs, the 00Z ECMWF has been
downplaying the strength of the low pressure center traversing the
northern tier of states/Great Lakes compared to the 00Z GFS/CMC. It
also has the timing of the surface fropa later by about 12 hours,
though that is an improvement from previous runs. Its moisture
return ahead of the front was less too. Still, there is enough
overall model evidence for measurable pcpn to be forecast in the PAH
forecast area in the form of showers, with instability parameters
suggesting at least isold lightning strikes.

Model consensus suggests the west-northwesterly flow aloft over the
weekend will not generate any measurable pcpn, especially with the
higher surface pressures depicted by the GFS/CMC models.

Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through the period, with
temps not too far from average as they fluctuate up and down as a
result of the fropa.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure will move in on the heels of a moisture-starved cold
front today. Expect generally clear skies and ne winds AOB 10 kts
with a few higher gusts during the afternoon.





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