Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Very complicated forecast today due to a wide range of short-term
model guidance. A synoptic warm frontal boundary appears to extend
from the kmdh area eastward across the kowb area as of 08z.
Scattered convection has been occurring along the warm front,
with more widespread convection across Missouri.

The models are in general agreement that the Missouri convection
will reach the Mississippi River by 12z. After 12z, there is a
wide spread among the short-range guidance. Residual outflow
boundaries could generate new convection during the day. The
timing, duration, and intensity of storms is quite variable
between the nam, hrrr, and ruc. There is even quite a difference
in their wind fields and deep-layer shear. In general, the more
favorable shear parameters will be closer to the upper trough
along and west of the Mississippi Valley. However, the potentially
better instability will be east of the Mississippi River. Hourly
mesoscale analyses will need to be watched closely.

Forecast highs will be lowered just a bit due to expected
widespread clouds and areas of precip.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Frontal system will be crossing the region tonight. Though POPs will
be fairly high, it looks as though the chances of any severe storms
will be dwindling. Some locations, esp over wrn KY and sw IN may see
an addition 1/4 to 1/2 of rain ahead of the front. Drier air will
slowly work its way in from the west during the day on Sunday. Will
leave some small rain chcs during the morning, mainly in the
Pennyrile region of west KY. Even those locations will be rainfree
by the PM hours.

We will have sfc high pressure in our vicinity on Monday but that
system will shift east through the day. Another frontal boundary
will be incoming from the west. Various models as well as the GFS
ensembles seem to have a pretty decent handle on the timing, and
this was the case yesterday as well. We should see dry weather
through the evening hours on Monday, but after midnight Monday night
and into Tuesday, precipitation chances increase. How quickly the
front makes it through Tuesday into Tuesday evening is still a bit
in question.

However, there will be a break in the action after the frontal
passage Tuesday evening or late Tuesday night. The upper level
trough/low will move across the area on Wednesday. This will mean
more clouds, more chances for showers and a downright cool day with
highs only in the 60s. Models have their differences on how quickly
this upper system departs on Wednesday night. May have to linger
some POPs in that period...higher POPs east. We could have a chance
to see lows in the upper 40s in some areas Wednesday night.

We will see improving conditions on Thursday, as well as an increase
in our temperatures and more sunshine as sfc high pressure builds
back into the region. The upper flow transitions to a more
flat/zonal flow by Friday with no large signals for any major
chances for rain.


Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the entire region, and
their future timing and intensity is the main concern through this
taf period. Organized convection over Missouri is forecast to
move/develop eastward across our region by sunrise. In the meantime,
scattered storms will continue to form over west KY and sw Indiana.
The tafs will be amended as necessary for any scattered storm
development. More storms are possible in the afternoon and evening.
Along and ahead of a warm front, winds will be east to southeast
through 12z. Winds will be mainly south on Saturday behind the front.




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