Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241749
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Excessive heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday. Daily
heat index values will range toward 105, perhaps a couple degrees
higher at their peak, and a couple degrees lower at their minimum,
over the course of the next 48 hours. The Heat Advisory therefore
looks good to continue through its set expiration time of 7 pm
Tuesday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the heat of
the afternoon, but believe Pops are low enough during this time
frame, with the High pressure circulating nearly overhead, to make
them silent Pops. Will monitor radar closely and change that,
if/when needed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

Well there continues to be a rift between the GFS and ECMWF/GEM in
their 00Z runs. The trend with all of the models is slower with the
eastward movement of the western U.S. low/trough. The 00Z ECMWF is
leading the charge and tonight`s run basically builds an upper
ridge north of the trough, effectively removing it from the
westerlies. Am beginning to wonder if this system and its associated
surface boundary are ever going to reach our region.

The 00Z GFS brings the upper trough and cold front through the area
Thursday and Thursday night, and then brings drier, cooler air into
the region for Friday and next Saturday. The Canadian/GEM is a lot
closer to the ECMWF solution, but not quite as slow. Really think
the ECMWF is onto something, so will lean toward it for this
forecast.

The problem with the ECMWF and GEM solutions with respect to our
existing forecast is that they allow a significant upper trough to
dive southeast into New England by Thursday morning. That brings a
backdoor cold front southward into our northern counties late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The front ends up draped across the
area from northwest to southeast Thursday and Friday. This leads to
a decent chance of convection both days.

The other effect of the ECMWF solution is the potential for the heat
and humidity to linger through much of the work week, if not all the
way through next Saturday. Bumped up temperatures just a bit
throughout the extended. Heat indices on Wednesday are generally at
or below 100, so there will be no need to extend the Heat Advisory
any further with this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Diurnal cu bases in the upper MVFR or low VFR range are possible
each morning. This may include cigs this pm, briefly/at times,
mainly eastern terminals (KEVV/KOWB). Isolated storms that develop
s/b isolated enough to preclude their mention. Late night/early
morning fog may likewise pose a vsby restriction to flight rules,
as it has the past 24-48 hrs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$






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