Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 120458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Splitsville on PoPs as SEMO activity dissipated and moved more
into TN, while new development was over southern IL. Models
continue to be poor performers overall (short and long term) in
terms of best placement of moisture and resultant QPF. Advertising
a wave would move through was o.k., but that was about it. Will
decrease PoPs tonight from WNW to ESE as the wave continues on,
with mainly dry weather forecast Saturday through Sunday, low PoPs
returning Sunday night. Temps through this evening will be based
on higher res data, then a MOS blend was used after that.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Model differences are still apparent for the extended period as they
have been all week. However, the 12Z GFS/Canadian models are
indicating an upper level wave moving east toward the area on
Monday. There is agreement that we could have precipitation moving
into the southeast MO counties late in the day spreading eastward
and becoming heavier as the evening and overnight period approaches.
This activity looks to bleed over into Tuesday as well as a frontal
boundary/sfc trough becomes situated near or just south of the CWA.

The front/sfc trough is expected to lift northeast on Wednesday and
the unsettled weather is progged to continue as this occurs. A cold
front is supposed to come through on Thursday/Thursday night but
models are not agreeing on timing nor the strength of this boundary.

Therefore, we will have a week full of low end chance type POPs due
to the unsettled nature of the upcoming weather pattern. Surrounding
offices mimic our thoughts on the model inconsistencies as of late
and have also concluded that lower end POPs will have to do for now.
As time goes on, we will be better able to pin down the timing of
this precipitation. Temperatures will remain in the 80s all week
during the day with 60s/lower 70s at night.


Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The cold front is really dragging its heels this evening, and
should just reach KCGI and KEVV at 06Z, and KPAH and KOWB a couple
hours later. Some patchy IFR or lower fog has developed where
skies have cleared ahead of the front, so had to account for that
at KPAH and KOWB. Radar trends do not support any mention of
precipitation at the TAF sites, but cannot completely rule it out
through 08Z or 09Z. Also may have to watch for some MVFR ceilings
to develop through daybreak, especially at KPAH and KOWB. A few
gusts into the teens will be possible throughout the area in the
afternoon as northerly winds mix down.




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