Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 150509
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1109 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Models show a cold front moving across the PAH forecast area
Monday morning. Most of the precipitation will be along and behind
the front. This will spread light snow into northern portions of
our forecast area before daybreak, spreading south across all of
our counties by midday. A rarity in these parts, precipitation
will fall primarily as snow, though some areas in west Kentucky
may see rain/snow mix Monday afternoon as temperatures may climb
into the middle 30s for a couple of hours. Snow will taper off
from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon into Monday evening,
then areas along the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee
borders and in the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky could see
lingering light snow/flurries late Monday.

Snowfall amounts will be around an inch mainly along and west of
the Mississippi River, with areas east of the river seeing one to
one and a half inches, with some 2 inch amounts possible in the
Evansville tri state region. With much of this snow starting
around the morning commute and lasting through the daylight hours,
went ahead with a winter weather advisory through the day, ending
by 00z Tuesday for my northwest half of counties, and by 06z
Tuesday across west Kentucky and a small portion of southeast
Missouri.

Wind chills are a concern Monday night, with some of our northern
counties potentially dropping to -10 or a little lower late
Monday night for a few hours. Held off on a headline for now,
wanting to see how models keeping doing with wind speeds, but
there is potential for Monday night.

Tuesday will remain very cold with highs in the 12 to 20 degree
range. Wind chills through the day will linger in the 0 to 5
above range, but some sun will trick us into feeling a little
better. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the single digits, but
winds will be lighter.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

As the mid level pattern over the eastern half of the country
becomes less amplified and more zonal early in the extended forecast
period, the PAH forecast area will be coming out of the deep freeze.
The center of high surface pressure is progged to sink into the
southeastern U.S. by Thu, allowing surface winds to back to the
south. As a result, after lows in the single digits to the middle
teens Thu morning, highs may get above freezing Thu afternoon over
most of our region. Wind chills mainly east of the MS River will
still be below zero Wed and Thu mornings.

Some model solutions have suggested a tight low may move close by
Thu night but this was currently only shown in the GFS solution. The
forecast remains dry until the start of the weekend. By then, the
PAH forecast area will be under a large scale warm advection pattern
ahead of a substantial mid level trof and surface frontal system
developing in the southwestern U.S. Light warm advection showers or
sprinkles may occur as early as around daybreak Sat, but it seems
that measurable pcpn will occur more toward Sat night and Sun (Day
7), due to large scale lift and moisture advection ahead of a cold
front. The medium range models suggested very high PoPs for this
time period. However, timing differences continue to exist with this
system, thus Pops were knocked down to chance category over most of
the region. By Day 7, low/high temps are forecast to be in the
40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light snow showers and flurries have persisted longer than
forecast. This area should depart, but the next round of snow will
move in by Monday morning into southern IL and progress southeast
through the day, ending up over west KY by Monday evening. As this
band moves through, expect MVFR cig and possibly IFR vsby
conditions due to snowfall. Winds will be SSE aob 10 kts for most
of the night, then veer from south, to west and then NNW Monday
into Monday evening sustained 8 to 12 kts with some 15 to 20 kt
gusts possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>111.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for MOZ112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$



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