Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 291133 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to so-so model agreement.

After a brief respite from the rain today, a cold front will cross
the region tonight. Ahead of the front, weak ripples of energy in
the southwest flow aloft will tap into enough moisture to produce
overrunning precipitation mainly over the southeast half to two
thirds of our CWA.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out as the GFS has been
more progressive keeping any precipitation chances farther south and
east. Instability hard to come by with this event, but threw a
sliver of thunder over the far southern Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky between 00-09Z tonight. Due to a relative lack of moisture,
only light precipitation amounts are expected with most areas
receiving less than a quarter of an inch.

In the wake of this system, high pressure at the surface and slowly
rising H5 heights are expected to keep the region dry through the
end of the short term period.

Temperatures through tonight will be above normal, then drop back to
near normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Zonal flow aloft will prevail across a good part of the country at
the beginning of the forecast period, with a cut-off low developing
over AZ. Our region will be blessed with benign conditions through
the first half of the weekend. Starting Saturday night, the medium
range models indicated the low will begin to move eastward and open
up. Isentropic lift combined with increasing deep moisture well
ahead of the low should enable light pcpn to develop in our area by
then. Some light freezing rain appears possible late in the night,
mainly in the northern third of the region, and in the Ozark
Foothills.

From the latter half of the weekend and into Monday, the model
solutions diverge quite a bit, though the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means
don`t diverge all that much overall. The 00Z ECMWF/CMC appeared to
be faster with the forward speed of the opening southern stream
shortwave, and more amplified overall, while the 00Z GFS kept the
flow aloft over us much more zonal, and holds the low back a bit.
The pcpn shield appeared much more extensive in the ECMWF solution,
lingering it into Monday morning while the GFS rushes the pcpn out
by Sunday night, then brings it back in with overrunning associated
with the aforementioned southern stream shortwave.

Bottom line is that by late Sunday and into Monday, confidence in
any one solution is low at this time. Consensus suggests that the
latter half of the weekend will be wet, followed by a brief reprieve
early Monday, then a return of rain later in the day from the
southwest.

Temps should remain near seasonable averages through the extended
period, with no major cold outbreaks seen through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

MVFR cigs at all sites early should dissipate by 15-16Z, remain
VFR through most of the period, with possible MVFR fog developing at
the end of the period. VCSH possible at KPAH/KOWB after 05-06Z as
a system slides by just to the south and east. Southerly winds
AOB 10 knots will become gusty up to 18-18 knots around midday,
then drop off to AOB 10 knots and becoming southwest to west after
03-04Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...DB


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