Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main immediate concern is the potential for dense fog of at least
a patchy nature early this morning. Latest observations indicate
sporadic reports of less than one half mile visibility confined to
mainly southern Illinois at this point, including Carbondale and
Marion, in addition to Salem and Flora, which are just north of our
immediate forecast area of concern. With clear skies and calm
winds, portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri stand
the best chance of a further reduction in visibility through
daybreak. Will likely hold off on any advisory at this point given
the patchy nature of the fog, but will readdress if conditions
warrant.

Otherwise, a rather quiet weather pattern will persist through
Tuesday night with a steady moderation in temperatures through the
period. The weak upper level trough that has lingered over the
region the past several days will finally be shoved east by a
building ridge centered over the Central and Southern Rockies.
This should help to decrease the abundant cloud cover that
continues to linger over portions of southwest Indiana and the
Pennyrile region of western Kentucky.

As far as temperatures are concerned, prefer a bias-corrected
guidance blend during the day with a lean towards cooler MOS at
night. The NAM remains too cool, so the forecast is more
representative of a GFS/ECMWF blend. All in all, temperatures
will warm from the mid 80s today into the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Increasing humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index
readings in the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Models in decent agreement in their handling of two separate weather
systems in the long term period, so forecast confidence above
average.

The long term period starts off with the approach of a cold front
which will tap into deeper moisture and produce showers and
thunderstorms. Due to lack of deep layer flow, the boundary will
take its time crossing the area, consequently precipitation chances
continue Wednesday night into Thursday. However, with the passage of
the front, precipitation chances will taper off from northwest to
southeast on Thursday.

High pressure at the surface in the wake of the front should keep
the region dry Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation chances will
return Friday night as an area of low pressure developing over the
plains lifts the aforementioned front back to the north and east as
a warm front. With the front lingering across the area, the approach
of surface low pressure, and a series of upper level disturbances
diving southeast through the flow, precipitation chances should
continue through the end of the period.

With the exception of Thursday and Friday, temperatures and
dewpoints will be near normal through the rest of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The low VFR clouds have pushed back eastward solidly over KEVV and
not far east of KPAH as of 0415Z. Guidance still really doesn`t
have a very good clue with the clouds, but the fact remains that
where there is no ceiling, fog is very likely to develop. KPAH is
already down to MVFR range, and LIFR or VLIFR conditions are
likely if the clouds stay to the east. There are some scattered
clouds around 5kft over the Ozarks, but cannot find any reason why
a persistent ceiling condition would develop over there. Will
continue with IFR tempo LIFR at KCGI and KPAH. Will only tempo
MVFR fog under the ceilings at KEVV and KOWB around sunrise.
Light winds expected throughout the period. Clouds/fog should
burn off to scattered cu by early afternoon.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS







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