Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 182212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
512 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 510 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The cold front is expected to enter the region late this evening,
and then progress to near KCGI and KEVV before stalling out by
morning. Some isolated convection will be possible near and ahead
of the front tonight, but it should mostly be in the form of
lighter showers.

The front will take on the characteristics of an inverted surface
trough Wednesday as the mid and upper-level southwest flow
strengthens. The front may lift a bit back toward the north, but
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase through
the day, with the emphasis over southeast Missouri in the morning,
and then spreading eastward through southern Illinois and into
southwest Indiana in the afternoon.

There is a significant signal for a wave/low developing along the
front and lifting northeast through the area Wednesday evening.
This feature will likely focus a cluster of storms which may train
over areas that have already received heavier rains through the
day. We will definitely have to watch for locally heavy rainfall.

Backed flow ahead of the low, coupled with surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees may support a few rotating
updrafts and a decent chance at a few severe storms with damaging
winds and large hail. This is most likely late Wednesday afternoon
in the early evening in southeast Missouri, in line with SPC`s
Slight Risk. Elsewhere, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out
Wednesday night.

The upper-level trough will push through the area Thursday, and
that should push any remnant convection east of the area by the
end of the day.

Temperatures should remain quite mild tonight, especially south of
the front. Widespread clouds and potential for convection will
have a major impact on highs Wednesday, but it could be quite warm
where the sunshine is prevalent. Northwest winds will develop
behind the surface low overnight Wednesday night, but cold
advection will not be that great, so lows will still be quite
mild. Gusty northwest winds will kick in early Thursday, and it
will feel drastically cooler with highs holding a few degrees
below normal. Northwest winds will stay up Thursday night, so lows
will hold in the mid 40s over much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The medium range models/ensemble means were in good agreement with
the overall pattern across the CONUS through at least Day 5, with
some differences seen after that in the sharpness of a mid CONUS
ridge, and timing and placement of minor impulses. The differences
will have little impact on our local weather.

The PAH forecast area will be under northwest flow aloft at the
beginning of the extended forecast period, in the wake of a
significant digging shortwave trof making its way off the Atlantic
seaboard. Northwesterly surface winds Friday are forecast to slacken
overnight, then turn southwesterly by Saturday as a surface high
moves by. Some channeled vorticity in the mid level flow, on the
edge of a broad mid level ridge developing over the western two-
thirds of the CONUS, may produce some cloudiness for us over the
weekend, but no pcpn is expected. In fact, no pcpn is forecast for
the entire extended period.

The flow aloft over the PAH forecast area will remain generally
northwesterly through the remainder of the period, with a minor
reinforcing shot of cool dry air arriving sometime on Monday. At
this time, the model initialization blend reflected this with a
rather brief wind shift to the north.

Temperatures will start out on the cool side (mid 40s/around 60),
followed by a warming trend through Day 7 (Tuesday). Indeed, there
will be a subtle cool-down Monday/Monday night for mainly southern
IL due to the surge of cool air. Still, for Sunday through Tuesday,
highs should be in the lower half of the 70s, with lows around 50.


Issued at 510 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Incoming cold front will become quasi stationary along the lower
Ohio river valley overnight and extend into/thru tmrw, resulting
in scattered showers and lower CIGS entering the forecast in
coincidence. This is reflected well in the going forecast and
for the most part, continued into the daylight/pm hours.



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