Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 212213
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
513 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

High pressure at the surface and an expansive mid level ridge will
continue to provide dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably warm
conditions for the PAH forecast area in the short term period. As
the ground continues to dry out, and lows moderate a bit, late
night fog will gradually become less and less likely, in general.

The models indicate that mid level trofs in the Rockies and the
Great Lakes region will become more prominent with time, tending
to sharpen the ridge over the southeastern quarter of the nation
(and us). This will likely produce a slight uptick in temps toward
the weekend. This will be assisted by low level winds picking up a
southerly component most of the time starting Thu. At least
dewpoints should remain in the 60s, making the temps around 90 a
tad more palatable. Fall arrives on Thu, though it won`t be
immediately noticeable.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

The last of the September heat will occur this weekend, followed by
cooler air for next week. The magnitude of the cooling trend varies
greatly among the models. The 12z deterministic runs of the gfs and
ecmwf indicate markedly cooler air, however the ensemble means of
both models barely resemble their deterministic runs.

As far as the daily details, a strong 500 mb ridge will persist over
the southeast states and Ohio Valley through the weekend. A
continuation of dry conditions is expected, along with daytime highs
in the lower 90s both days in most places. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s.

On Monday, there is a huge difference in model forecasts for our
area due to timing differences with a cold front. The ecmwf is
slower to move the cold front eastward into the sharp 500 mb ridge.
The more progressive gfs brings the cold front into our region,
along with showers and storms for Monday. The official forecast will
lean toward the gfs, with chance pops. Forecast highs will be in the
lower 80s.

Regardless of model choice, a surface cold front will come through
our area by late Tuesday. Forecast highs will be around 80 both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s by
Wednesday. However, the air mass may be considerably cooler if some
recent deterministic runs are correct in closing off a strong 500 mb
low over the north central states Wednesday. GFS and ecmwf ensemble
means have shown little if any negative 500 mb height anomalies in
that area, but the deterministic runs have become more persistent
with the solution of a closed 500 mb low. Of course, pops will
depend on the evolution of the 500 mb pattern. Given the wide range
of model solutions, slight chance pops will cover most of the
Tuesday through Wednesday period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

High pressure throughout the column will keep Visual Flight Rules
through the forecast, with the exception being late night patches
of potentially dense fog under clear skies/light winds regime.
This is most likely, again, at KCGI and KPAH, and will burn off
quickly again tmrw as well.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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