Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM


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