Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261627
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Pleasant fall weather will continue through the remainder of the
week as high pressure remains anchored over the Great Lakes and
the Northeast. This will keep an easterly low level flow in place,
resulting in a continuation of dry weather and slightly above
seasonal temperatures.

In the upper levels, the main weather feature over the eastern
2/3 of the continental U.S. will be an upper level ridge. A weak
trough will remain buried within the ridge over the upper Midwest,
but impacts with this feature will remain primarily west and
north of the region through Saturday.

Moisture will eventually surge northward from the Gulf late in
the weekend as the trough shifts east across the Ohio and Middle
Mississippi Valleys. However, latest model output sheds some doubt
on how much progress this moisture will make into our forecast
area. Will thus maintain only chance or slight chance precipitation
probabilities on Sunday, with the greatest chance across western
Kentucky.

Continued with a bias-adjusted blend of guidance for temperatures
through the period. Highs will average in the lower half of the
80s, as lows moderate into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Above average confidence in the first half of the long term
decreasing to below average confidence in the second half.

With a broad H5 trough over the region plus a weak surface trough
and deep moisture over the southern Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky, precipitation chances may linger there Sunday night.

Starting Monday high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft
should keep the region dry with slightly above normal temperatures
through at least Wednesday.

From Wednesday night on is where model disparity begins and forecast
confidence decreases. By 12Z Thursday the GFS paints QPF over most
of our southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri counties with the
approach of a system coming out of the plains. The ECMWF is much
slower with this feature and at the same time still has the leading
edge of precipitation well to the west of our area.

On Thursday the GFS brings the aforementioned system across our CWA
with fairly widespread coverage of QPF while the ECMWF still has all
QPF west, albeit not that far, of our CWA. Given the propensity for
long range models to move weather systems a bit too quickly, will go
with a GFS/ECMWF blend but weighted more heavily toward the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Generally VFR conditions. Cannot rule out the patchy shallow fog
again late tonight. Light winds, occasional high clouds the rule.
There may be a few CU this afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$












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