Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 080542 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

We have no plans for winter weather headlines with this forecast
package.

The 12Z guidance is on track with the large upper trough
developing overhead tonight and Monday. A lead wind shift will
turn winds to the west by/around 00z, but the main wind shift to
the northwest will hold off until early Monday morning. As a
result, the cold advection will hold off until Monday.

Lows tonight should hold right near freezing over most of the
area, and there will be a brief period of warming over the
southeast half of the area in the morning. We should have morning
highs with temperatures falling during the late morning and
afternoon. Used the consensus of raw model data to capture these
hourly temperature trends tonight through Monday.

Temperatures aloft are expected to drop below freezing throughout
the area by 12Z Monday. Therefore the only "warm" air will be
right at the surface, which should allow any precipitation across
the area to reach the ground as snow by 12Z Monday.

Snow showers are expected to increase in the wake of the lead
upper-level disturbance which should be moving through the area
around 12Z. The consensus of 12Z guidance emphasizes Monday
afternoon east of the Mississippi River for the greatest coverage
of snow showers, but the higher resolution models are not
generating much coverage. Tried to cap PoPs at 50%, but ended up
with some likelies in the far eastern portions of the area.

Beyond Monday afternoon, it is difficult to pin down a time for
better coverage of snow showers, so will continue with chancy
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, with the best PoPs in the east.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 1-1.5" will be possible over
portions of southwest Indiana over the 36 hour period from Monday
through Tuesday. Elsewhere total snows will be an inch or less,
with much of the southwest half of the area seeing little if any
accumulation.

Given that it will be a dry snow and quite breezy, it will be hard
to accumulate, which should limit the impact on roads. Will not be
issuing any extra products with this forecast package, but we will
be monitoring radar trends and cannot rule out a Winter Weather
Advisory eventually becoming necessary, especially over the
Evansville Tri State.

Temperatures will feel quite chilly after our mild weekend. With
clouds holding over most of the area most of the day Tuesday, we
may be too warm, especially in the southwest. The coldest air will
arrive Tuesday night when the entire area will drop into the
teens. The winds will still be quite strong, which will take wind
chills down as low as minus 5 along I-64 at 12Z Wednesday. Even
the southern border of the area will see wind chills down to 5
above. Snow or no snow, it will be dangerously cold Tuesday night.
Will mention the cold along with the light snow accumulations in
the HWO.

A band of mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles across the
area late this afternoon and this evening, but with temperatures
well above freezing it should have little impact.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

With no substantial weather systems to worry about in the long term,
our focus continues to be the brutal cold that will be arriving
early in the week and lasts through most of the work week. Models
have definitely trended colder in the last few runs. The core of the
cold air mass will be laid out across the western Great Lakes down
into southern IL, southwest IN and central KY. 850 mb temperatures
are now forecast to be down to around -20 deg C in these locations,
which is about 5 degrees colder than what was advertised yesterday.
Latest guidance numbers reflect this drop with highs only in the 20s
for most locations within the CWA. Even though the sfc high will be
building into the area on Wednesday, the gradient will be rather
tight in the morning, so wind chills will at least be in the single
digits with some areas dropping below zero. As the high builds in
during the day, the winds will lessen but probably not until about
00Z Thursday. In addition, there may be some lingering low clouds in
our eastern counties, but we should see clearing skies as the high
builds in.

At the surface, high pressure will remain the dominant feature on
the weather maps. However, there will be an even stronger high
pressure system building in over the area for the weekend, but
models are not in agreement on how much cold air is associated with
it. In the meantime, our daily highs will likely not get out of the
20s/30s from Tuesday through Thursday, and actually not get above
freezing for parts of southern IL/southwest IN until Friday. This is
due to the highly amplified upper level pattern - we remain in
strong northwest flow for much of the week. It is only toward the
end of the week when the flow tries to relax a bit. As with most
northwest flow patterns, there will be minor waves of energy that
might have enough moisture to produce some minor precipitation.
However, as mentioned yesterday, models do not have any good
consistency on any of the projected shortwaves to be able to warrant
explicitly adding POPS to the forecast at this time. Will wait for
some additional run to run consistency before adding anything right
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at all sites through at least 12Z, then
MVFR cigs and/or vsbys along with shsn in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Cigs at KCGI/KPAH may improve back to VFR in the last six
hours of the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 knots will veer around
to the northwest in the wake of the front, increase to 12-14
knots with gusts to 20-22 knots after 16Z, then dropping off to AOB
12 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP


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