Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 160811
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
311 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A solid layer of mid-clouds has moved eastward over our western 6
or so counties in southeast Missouri. The clouds have held
temperatures up around the freezing mark, but elsewhere most
locations are in the low to mid 20s, if not into the upper teens.
The latest satellite trends indicate that the clouds are not
making any eastward progress, and might even push back to the west
a bit before daybreak. We plan to allow the Freeze Warning to
continue until expiration over the entire area.

The mid clouds will progress east across the area today, and
winds will become southerly and even gust a bit this afternoon in
the northwest. Tonight the moisture will increase in the low-
levels, as the mid and high moisture moves out of the region.
Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two this afternoon and evening, but
00Z NAM and GFS soundings show a deep enough saturated layer in
the low-levels to support a chance of light rain/drizzle after
midnight.

As the moisture continues to increase into Friday morning, there
is some potential for elevated instability to develop, especially
in the NAM. Decided to just throw in a slight chance of
thunderstorms throughout the area, to go along with high chance
and likely PoPs for showers. The likely PoPs may be overdone,
especially if thunderstorms cannot get going. Otherwise it will be
more drizzle/light rain.

The 00Z guidance continues to develop a lot of convection along
and ahead of the cold front Friday evening, mainly over the
southern half of the area. Low level moisture return will be
limited with surface ridging over much of the Gulf, and lapse
rates will not be terribly steep. However, this has been a
consistent signal in the models for a couple of days now. Guidance
seems to have slowed down just a bit with the front, so some
thunder may linger just past 06Z along the KY/TN border. Although
lightning is a decent bet, severe weather is not expected.

As for temperatures, with plenty of clouds the next couple of
days, and some cold advection Saturday, generally stayed close to
the consensus of guidance for high temperatures through the
period. Winds and clouds should help hold temperatures above the
consensus tonight and Friday night. Good radiational cooling
should take things below consensus for lows Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Medium to low confidence in the timing of systems in the extended.

High pressure will give way to an approaching storm system this
weekend. We have a system that is poised to move through late in the
weekend into the early part of next week. Sunday a warm front will
approach the region possibly bringing a few showers to the
area...mainly west of the Mississippi River. As the warm front lifts
through the area...we will be placed in the warm sector. This will
create a chance for thunder as LI`s go slightly into the negative
and K index values rise into the 30s. So will at least have a slgt
chc of thunder Sunday night into Monday as we reside in the warm
sector. The trailing cold front will stall or slow its exit early
next week along the southern border...keeping a chance of
thunder/showers in the area early in the week. By mid week high
pressure will once again move into the region after Monday bringing
much drier. Even with the system moving through we still expect more
seasonable temperatures to persist through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

The center of high surface pressure will move over the PAH forecast
area overnight, causing the winds to go very light and variable. By
late morning, the high will continue to move eastward, and winds are
forecast to pick up out of the south and maintain speeds below 12
kts. There will be an increase in VFR clouds from west to east ahead
of an approaching upper level disturbance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DB



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