Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131725
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Aviation section updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

All things are still on track for a front to take shape, approach
late today, and make passage tonight. It will bring showers/storms
with it, including a slgt risk of svr for mainly our western 1/2
of the region beginning early this evening. Bulk shear/instability
weakens with time and further east, so the ongoing late day storms
to the west that move in will hold/pose svr threat thru SEMO, then
probably lose a little umph east of the MS river. Time will tell
how far east they can maintain themselves in less favorable
environ during the overnight period.

The actual front makes its passage late tonight-early Monday. It
may yet linger a chance of thunder in the eastern half of the FA
thru 18z Monday, thereafter a post frontal chc cat PoP lingers til
the upper trof makes passage Monday night. While colder temps
aloft rotate in, surface temps stay at or above 40F thru midnite,
which should preclude changeover to frozen pcpn (though we`re not
dismissing its possibility altogether). Moisture shrivels up after
that, when cooler temps more supportive filter thru the blayer to
the surface.

After another warm prefrontal day today, Mon-Tue still look
markedly colder as forecast, with highs/lows in the 50s/30s
predominantly. This may include a chance of frost Tuesday night,
when skies clear and winds are light.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

By Wednesday morning, the ridge of high pressure will extend from
the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. As it continues to shift
east of the region, southeast winds and a resultant moderating trend
will develop as we head into late week. Highs Wednesday will range
around the 60 degree mark, then surge well into the 60s on Thursday.
Lows through the period will remain above the 40 degree mark, so
frost does not appear to be a concern through the remainder of the
week.

The approach of upper level shortwave energy will result in our next
chance of precipitation by Thursday night and Friday. Confidence is
increasing in the solution depicted by the GFS, as the ECMWF appears
to be trending towards a somewhat stronger and slower solution as
well. Model forecast instability is rather meager at this point, but
some weak elevated instability will be present as the core of the
system moves through on Friday. As a result, we will maintain a
mention of thunder on Friday, with showers Thursday night and Friday
night.

There is still some uncertainty with regard to how the pattern will
play out over the weekend. At this time, prefer to maintain the
going dry forecast on Saturday in the wake of the Friday system.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Sct-bkn cu with considerable high clouds across the area this
afternoon with south winds gusting just over 30 kts at times.
Expect an increase in convective activity this afternoon over SE
MO as upper level energy ejects NE from the srn Plains. The
chances will increase sharply into the evening over the remainder
of the region. This is reflected in the TAFs this evening. Will
linger prob30 tsra after 05/06z or so. Wind shift should come
around daybreak Monday with cigs lowering through MVFR toward IFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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