Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241734
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1234 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Dry and unseasonably warm today and Sunday with an upper level
ridge still in place, along with weak surface high pressure. A
sharp mid level trof will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile the ridge will begin to break
down. Surface cold front should be near SEMO, SW IL by Sunday
evening. Will keep an afternoon mention of TSRA, with good chance
PoPs for showers and storms Sunday night, ending from west to
east Monday. Used a GFS/NAM blend for timing. Will continue to
favor MOS and weighted numbers for temps through Sunday, followed
by blend guidance for Sunday night through Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

High confidence in the extended.

We will start the extended in a northwest flow in the wake of a cold
front. This will bring us the coolest temps in the extended right
from the start of the extended. Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below
normal and 10 to 15 degrees below what we have experienced last
week. So autumn is about to arrive. After the first of the week high
pressure will start to build back into the region. This will allow
temperatures to moderate back to near normal. The mid/long range
models have no other significant weather poised to move through the
region over the next 10 days outside of Sunday night and Monday of
course.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The only concern to aviation in this cycle will be fog late
tonight. The 12Z models are showing an increase in cloud cover in
the 5-7kft layer overnight, and that may result in less fog than
the last few mornings. Will only have prevailing MVFR forecast
with this issuance. KPAH looks like the one site that may see some
lower conditions, but handled that with BCFG.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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