Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300859
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
359 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Large MCS over Missouri and Arkansas has spread quickly eastward
at 50 knots into southern IL and western KY early this morning.
This rapid movement was not forecast by any of the models.
Isolated damaging winds along the leading edge have prompted the
issuance of a few warnings overnight. A large area of stratiform
rain has encompassed areas of southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois that have been deluged with 4 to 9 inches over the past
couple days. Therefore, a serious flood situation has evolved. A
record flood crest is predicted on the Current River in the Ozark
foothills, and the river is already within a foot of that record.

Fortunately, today is the final day of the MCS train. A cold front
will sweep east across the region late this afternoon and this
evening. Some showers and isolated storms may linger much of the
night in the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. Cooler air will
arrive, with lows around 50 tonight. The dry air will hang on
through Tuesday. It will be noticeably cooler Monday, with highs
60 to 65 under lots of wrap-around low clouds beneath the
occluding low to our north. Temps will rebound into the 70`s on
Tuesday as plenty of sun returns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Another storm system will affect our region on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts should not compare to the
excessive amounts over the past couple of days. However, they will
be hydrologically significant. WPC guidance for Wednesday and
Thursday indicates storm totals of 1 to 2 inches. It appears we
will be on the cool and stable side of this low, which will track
eastward across Tennessee. Although some isolated elevated
convection is possible, there is not expected to be a repeat of
MCS activity, which often dumps prolific rainfall amounts on our
region. Highs may end up below model guidance if widespread rain
materializes. At this time, the forecast calls for highs mainly in
the 60`s both days.

Friday into Saturday, mainly dry conditions are expected as the
low tracks away from our region. However, some lingering isolated
showers are possible in the cool and unstable cyclonic flow.
Temperatures will remain cool, although increasing sunshine will
make 70 degrees attainable by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Widespread rain and thunderstorms this morning will gradually
diminish in coverage later today. Generally improving conditions
are expected tonight, with vfr conditions at all sites. Winds will
be gusty from the south today, turning more southwest this
evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>005-014-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY


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