Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Issued at 1153 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Areas of drizzle are lifting north through the area this morning,
so have added/expanded slight chances for most of the region for
light rain and drizzle.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Dropped remainder of Dense Fog Advisory for this morning over
Southeast Missouri...visibilities have and will remain above
criteria through the morning hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Referenced the reduction and cancellation of part of the Dense
Fog Advisory in the 120 am CST update, so will not mention further
in this discussion.

As the area transitions fully into the warm sector, there will be
the potential for isolated shower activity until the deeper layer
moisture advects north of the WFO PAH forecast area later this

The energy rotating around the base of the broad trough covering
the western 2/3rds of the U.S. has been moving faster and further
west than both short and medium range guidance has been depicting
at this time. There still continues to be some timing and
placement issues with respect to convective activity on Saturday
into Sunday. The SREF appears to be further to the west than the
NAM/GFS/CMCnh, but appears to approximate the area of concern
suggested in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. At this time,
utilized a blend of the SREF/NAM/CMCnh for the PoP/Weather
forecast for Saturday into Sunday. Confidence is average to low
with the western limit of the convective activity Saturday
afternoon through early Sunday. Hopefully, this will be resolved
and there is a unified solution among a vast majority of the
numerical model guidance with the 12z Friday model runs.

With warm advection already in full tilt this morning, utilized
the warmer solution of the NAM-WRF, HRRR, RAP, and SREF for
dewpoints, temperatures, winds, etc.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The long-term period will bring drier and cooler weather as the
upper-level pattern undergoes a significant change. By Thursday, the
persistent 500 mb trough over the western states will be replaced by
a high-amplitude ridge. A developing downstream trough over the
eastern states is forecast to drive colder air southeast across our
region by Thursday.

As far as the daily specifics... On Monday, gusty northwest winds
will subside as our weekend storm system redevelops along the East
Coast. Skies will partially clear over most of the region, though
clouds may hang tough east of the Wabash River. Highs will be from
45 to 50.

A weak high pressure ridge will cross our region Monday night,
followed by a milder south wind on Tuesday. Highs will be in the 50s
under partly sunny skies.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday, a well-developed low pressure system
will move northeast from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. The
trailing cold front will swing eastward across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Wednesday. The models continue to insist the front will be
starved for moisture until it passes to our southeast. Therefore,
pops will be kept only in the slight chance range along and ahead of
the front Tuesday night and Wednesday. Dry northwest flow will
follow the front for Thursday. Highs will cool down from the lower
50s Wednesday to the lower 40s Thursday.


Issued at 1153 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Will have to monitor for drizzle at KEVV...but for now have left
it out of the 18Z forecasts. MVFR/IFR ceilings at the beginning of
the period will slowly lift this afternoon and evening, eventually
ending up with VFR conditions at all sites. Overnight, there are
mixed signals with most guidance sources indicating VFR conditions
with continued south winds. However, there is some potential for
IFR or lower ceilings to re-develop over the region into Saturday
morning. For now went with the optimistic VFR forecast, but
adjustments may be necessary.




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