Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181829

129 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Issued at 129 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Updated aviation section for 18z TAF package.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Will keep PoPs in the slight chance category today, save for near
the TN border closer to existing boundary and slightly deeper
moisture. Not confident in the models handling of potential
convection tonight and beyond. Not seeing much convection in the
models tonight. Will keep it dry for now. Tuesday and beyond, rather
than try and figure out specifics from each solution, think a
general trend depiction is the right way to go, slowly adjusting best
chance PoPs from SW to NE as heights slowly rise through mid week.
Strong storms possible at some point in the Tuesday through Tuesday
night time frame, as increasingly favorable mid level lapse rates
push SE into the area, coincident with increasing low level
westerly flow. Used a blend of MOS and existing numbers for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The long term will be dominated by the presence of an upper level
ridge over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. This will help
to stabilize the atmosphere as the tropospheric profile undergoes a
drying trend. Consequently, any slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be suppressed into far eastern portions of the
forecast area Thursday and Friday, then east of the forecast area
over the weekend.

The main concern during this time will be the heat and humidity.
Highs in the mid 90s will combine with relatively high humidity to
push heat index readings to or perhaps above the century mark each
afternoon. If my estimation is even a few degrees too low, then we
may need to consider a Heat Advisory later this week for prolonged
duration of heat index readings of 100 to 105 for at least four
consecutive days. Will monitor and adjust forecast as necessary.


Issued at 129 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR vsbys and VFR to occasional MVFR cigs expected into this
evening. MVFR fog again expected late tonight, with drops to IFR
possible especially at KCGI. Isolated showers and storms possible
through 01z, then again after 13z, but chances too low to include
in TAFs. Northwest winds around 5 kts will become light to calm
tonight, then pick up from the southwest around 5 kts after 13z.




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