Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 012000
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Will continue the Lake Wind Advisory thru 6 p.m. as criteria is
still being met. Rain and storm chances increase from the NW
tonight as a front settles south toward the area. Locally heavy
rain possible NNW part of the area. Modest wind fields, and more
favorable lapse rates means a strong, isolated severe storm cannot
be ruled out, again over the NW 1/2 of the area. The front will
move south through the area Tuesday. PoPs for convection will
accompany the front, generally likely in the morning, tapering off
in the afternoon. After somewhat of a lull, chances of elevated
convection will push in from the west by 12z Wednesday with
chances pushing east Wednesday/Wednesday night. Temps were a blend
of MOS and Raw Model output.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Models keep some light QPF across mainly our far eastern counties on
Thursday with some lingering moisture and instability, so kept some
slight to low chance pops going for these areas.  Loss of heating
will result in dry conditions Thursday night.  An approaching cold
front Friday will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
Friday and Friday night, with the highest chances through the day
Saturday with the frontal passage.  GFS and ECMWF are in good
agreement on timing, with precip chances quickly dwindling late
Saturday, while the GEM lingers precip into Saturday night.  Prefer
the GFS/ECMWF solutions, and after high chance pops on Saturday,
went with dry conditions for Saturday night.  Behind the front,
drier and cooler air will filter in the region, with below seasonal
temperatures expected Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Prob of convection not high enough to include at the Terminals this
afternoon. Gusty SW winds will persist, 10-20kt +. Ocnl clouds aoa
12k/ft will continue, with sct-bkn025-035 expected, gradually
higher bases with time. Kept best chance of convection tonight,
within Prob30`s mainly aft 06z as convective chances increase
markedly after midnight. Winds will back to the south and fall to
aob 10 kts tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$








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