Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151840
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
140 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Visible Imagery shows cu field extensively across FA, perhaps
slightly more agitated across northeast 1/3 FA, where gridded
time/height cross sections reveal 850 mb condensation pressure
deficit values some 10-20 mb lower there. The gfs actually thinks
that is pcpn, so we take that fwd realizing it may be overdoing
some short term pcpn modeling.

Anticipate a clear sky/light wind scenario again tonight, and
while this may be conducive to some late night/early Sat am fog
again, it may not be headline material, at least that is what MOS
suggests.

Saturday-Sunday looks mostly dry/mild. The gfs again appears to
slightly overdo its QPF, with the NAM perhaps modeling the near
term environ better, keeping us pcpn free. We think that is the
way to go, or at least silent with Pops, until better forcing can
come in during the next week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast starts off
higher than average at the beginning of the week. However, model
inconsistencies depreciate forecast confidence as the week
progresses.

The upper level pattern next week will be characterized by an upper
level trough over the western U.S. with an upper level ridge over
the eastern U.S. extending from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast
states. The ridge should act to deflect most of the active weather
to the north of the forecast area through Tuesday. The wave pattern
is forecast to amplify by mid to late week thus strengthening the
southwesterly flow pattern across the forecast area.

With more humidity and warmer than normal temperatures, the chance
for an isolated mainly heat-of-the-day thunderstorm is difficult to
rule out beyond Monday. However, a couple of windows present better
opportunities for scattered thunderstorm activity. The first arrives
late Sunday night into Monday as a weak frontal boundary drops south
into the Wabash River Valley in response to approaching upper level
energy northwest of the region. Better chances on Monday appear to
be over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The
second opportunity arrives mid week with the approach of upper level
energy from the Plains. There is quite a bit of model spread with
this second chance, so we generally used a blend of available model
guidance for now.

With the upper level ridge in place and southerly flow in the low
levels, warmer than normal temperatures are forecast to persist
through the period. Highs should range through the mid to upper 80s
with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Scattered to marginally broken diurnally driven VFR bases in the
4.5-6K FT AGL range this pm, will be repeated tmrw pm, according
to gridded time/height analysis. A moclear/light wind overnight
regime may be conducive to fog, patches locally dense, but MOS
suggests perhaps not as extensive as the previous night or two.
Have included inherited mentions and will run with, adjusting with
time as threat emerges in more detail.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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