Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 182127
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 326 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Bottom line is that we will truly get into the warm sector in the
short term, with record warmth both during the day and at night.

South to southwesterly flow will increase at all levels tonight
into Monday. This could aid in supporting scattered to numerous
warm advection showers during the period. Should not be much of
an impact though. The bigger story will be the rise in temps later
tonight through Monday. Despite the possible considerable cloud
cover much of the day, temps will likely make it to near or above
70 again over a good portion of the region. In fact, some record
highs may fall or be challenged. Lows will not fall off too much
Monday night, and will likely shatter all record high minimum
temperatures for the night across the region.

The unusually strong upper level high pressure just off the
southeast U.S. coast will actually try yo flex its muscle westward
later Monday into Tuesday. This not only will reduce the number of
showers across the forecast area, but could also serve to push
temperatures even higher than Monday to record levels once again.
Would not be surprised to see some locations flirt with 80
degrees on Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

An anomalously strong mid/upper level high near Bermuda will be in
place by midweek. Meanwhile, the CONUS will be under an amplified
mid/upper level longwave pattern, with a trof in the west, opposite
the strong Bermuda high. As a result, the PAH forecast area will be
under warm deep moist southwesterly flow during this time. The
medium range models are in reasonably good agreement depicting
shortwave energy moving through the mean trof, and the southeastward
movement of a surface cold front through our region early Wed. The
timing of the front should limit peak afternoon temps to the 40s
over southeastern MO/southern IL, and to the 50s/60s in southwestern
IN/western KY. The front is progged to stay southeast of the PAH
forecast area through midweek.

The main concern is with the warm conveyor belt pattern in place,
which will be conducive to copious rainfall amounts. There may be
enough instability and lift for limited tstm development near the
frontal boundary, mainly late Tue evening over the northwestern
third of the region. WPC now has us currently in a moderate risk of
excessive rainfall over western parts of southeastern MO, and a
slight risk west of the MS River and northwest of the OH River. Much
of southeastern MO may have 1 inch per hour rainfall rates early Wed
near and perhaps just behind the wedge of the southeastward-moving
colder air. For most of the region, the best QPF (a half inch to an
inch per 6 hours) will be during the daylight hours Wed, after which
the southeastern CONUS upper ridge will begin to rebuild
temporarily, leading to a gradual diminishing of pcpn from the
northwest Wed night. Forecast temp profiles suggest some icing is
possible in the higher elevations of the Ozark Foothills late Wed
night.

The cold front which should lie to the south of the region
Thursday will be pushed back north across the forecast area later
Thursday night into Friday. With strong, rich southwesterly flow
aloft, showers and even isolated thunderstorms will be likely
along the front. Some of the rainfall could be quite significant
again, which would exacerbate any on-going flooding of rivers,
and may even lead to new flood watches in some areas. The front
should then stall out somewhere near or just north of the region
on Saturday. How far the front makes it to the north will likely
determine how much of a lull we get, if any, in the heavy rain
potential next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 958 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Expect VFR conditions today into the evening hours. Some ifr
conditions are likely overnight, along with scattered showers.
Winds will increase from the south tonight. Low level wind shear
is expected overnight due to winds from 40 to 50 kt at 2k feet.
Southerly surface winds will then increase more during the day
Monday, with some gusts 20 to 30 kts becoming likely by 18z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB/GM
AVIATION...GM



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