Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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281
FXUS63 KPAH 181735
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1135 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Forecast confidence in the near term is higher than average given
the relatively good agreement among forecast models.

Clouds will likely be reluctant to clear for much of the day as
low level moisture lingers. Even where partial clearing does take
place, mid and high level clouds will already be on the increase
ahead of the next weather system. Thus, temperatures will likely
remain in the 40s for much of the day, although a few locations
may end up pushing the 50 degree mark by mid afternoon.

An upper level low over the southern Rockies early this morning
is forecast to move into the central PLains today. The low is
progged to lift northeast into the Missouri River Valley Thursday
night as the shortwave trough south of the low pivots across the
forecast area. As a result, the potential for showers will be on
the increase from south to north tonight, with a peak in coverage
on Thursday, and diminishing rain chances from west to east
Thursday night.

Elevated instability will be marginal, but enough to support a
slight chance of thunderstorms across much of the area late
tonight into Thursday evening. Severe weather is not expected
given the marginal instability forecast. However, locally heavy
rain may become a concern, especially near and south of the Ohio
River where the heaviest rain fell with the last event and is
forecast with this event. Rainfall totals should range from about
one quarter to one half inch in the Missouri Ozarks to as much as
1.5 inches across western Kentucky near the Tennessee border. This
may aggravate locations where water is already standing due to
saturated soil conditions. However, the steady nature of the rain
should keep any potential for flash flooding to a minimum.

A respite from the wet weather should occur Friday and Friday
night, but clouds are likely to be stubborn to clear once again.
With warm south to southwest flow, temperatures may well top the
60 degree mark across much of the area by day`s end despite the
abundant cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Will continue to use a EC/GFS blend as the solutions remain similar.
Weak upper level energy will move NE across the region Saturday.
We`ll continue with a slight chance of showers. Saturday night PoPs
increase and remain high through Sunday night as forcing in response
to an upper low passing just to our south results in rains across
the area. Chances will decrease/end from west to east Monday-Monday
night. Tuesday should be dry. Will continue with a slight chance of
showers Tuesday night through Wednesday as the low PoP signal has
been persistent. Temperatures will continue to run above normal. We
used a EC/GFS MOS/model blend output.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Moisture trapped underneath a very strong, low-level inversion
will keep MVFR ceilings going through the afternoon and tonight.
Some improvement is expected through the afternoon, but VFR is
unlikely. Surface high pressure will pass overhead this afternoon,
so winds will be light or calm until near daybreak Thursday, when
a modest east southeast wind will develop, as our next storm
system pivots northeast into the region. This will bring numerous
showers and possibly a rumble of thunder to the region late
tonight in the west and throughout the area in the morning.
Conditions will deteriorate quickly with the onset of the
precipitation, and IFR, if not LIFR, conditions are expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DRS



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