Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 011720
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PW`S SHOW A STEADY CLIMB TO ALMOST 2.25" BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHICH
EXCEEDS THE 99TH PERCENTILE. 1000-500 MB MRH SATURATES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...AS INCOMING SYSTEM FED BY NW FLOW
ALOFT ENERGY DEVELOPS FRONT/SAGS IT INTO/ACROSS LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS ALL OF THIS TRANSITIONING
OCCURS...WE`LL SEE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG/JUST ATOP THE
BOUNDARY BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...AND AS
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVATE ALONG 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE LINES BISECTING
PAH FA...WE ANTICIPATE HIGHLY EFFICIENT/SOAKING RAINS ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 3" OR MORE ON AVERAGE. WHERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE STORM
REPEATS/TRAINING OCCURS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 OR 5 INCHES
LOOK POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
COLLABORATIVELY BLENDED THE LSX FFA INTO ONE OF OUR
OWN...BASICALLY COVERING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA...WHERE
CERTAINTY POPS/MAX QPF AMOUNTS (3" OR MORE) ARE EXPECTED...FOR THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME FRAME OF GREATEST CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING.

WE WILL START OFF INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OVERNIGHT DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A
SURFACE REFLECTION BUT WE REMAIN OVERSHADOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF THE NATION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL SPOKES OF ENERGY TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA DAY OR NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A THUNDERSTORM ANY TIME IN THE
EXTENDED. THE TREND OF THE SUPERBLEND WAS TO LOWER THE POPS WITH
RELATIVELY LOW QPF.

AS FOR TEMPS LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. FOR THE
SAME REASON ALLOWED THE LOWS TO REMAIN UP AS THE CLOUDS AND SMOKE
WILL WORK LIKE A BLANKET HOLDING TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH ON AND OFF CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD 18Z THURSDAY. OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR SHOULD STRONG CONVECTION
OCCUR RIGHT AT ONE OF THE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS SIMPLE...AND WILL ADJUST THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL UPSTREAM TRENDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ILZ084-085-088>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KYZ001>013-016-017-021-022.

&&

$$



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