Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141947

247 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Convection increased as expected from AR and into the SW part of
the CWFA this afternoon. The NAM had a decent handle on this. Will
follow its lead through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Thunder as expected as well as elevated instability is
still present over the SE 1/3 of the region. Will also increase
PoPs from the west, as a large area of precip (including snow)
over MO moves east ahead of the parent upper trof seen on Water
Vapor moving east from the Plains. Will transition from the
convective chances SE, rain/drizzle elsewhere, to rain through the
evening, which may mix with or fall as some snow over mainly the
NNW part of the area. No accumulation.

After midnight, should clear out rapidly from west to east. Went
ahead with a Freeze Warning west of a Fairfield, IL to Poplar
Bluff, MO line as temperatures are forecast to fall to near
freezing there. Should not be a hard freeze. But forecast temps
warrant the warning per guidance. Better chance of a hard freeze
will occur Wednesday morning with lighter winds area wide and lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, slightly longer duration as well,
and frost.

Otherwise Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dry. Cool
Tuesday, then back into the upper 50s or so Wednesday as surface
high pressure moves east across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The persistent signal presented last week in the medium range
numerical model suite, suggested a strong, more negatively tilted
system, with copious amounts of rainfall.

However, looking at the near end of the extended forecast period
(Friday), the middle level flow displays a significantly weaker
positive tilt shortwave in approximately the same location as the
earlier deeper, closed upper low. In fact, even the deep convective
instability associated with this system is almost non-existent for
thunderstorms, suggesting primarily a showery system.

In order to reflect a more realistic transition for the
introduction/transition/departure of PoPs and weather for the Friday
system, the time period was reduced to a six hour time frame, with
the highest PoPs still centered during the day on Friday.  Slightly
increased the coverage of the higher PoPs on Friday to reflect the
increasingly stronger signal.

There remains some disparity in model solutions for the next weather
system in northwest flow behind the Friday weather system. The GFS
Ensemble mean and deterministic 00z/12z Monday ECMWF were more
similar in solution and were used as a base template for PoPs and
Weather for Sunday into Monday of next week. Went with a lower PoP
(chance) event. Given the limited instability, no mention of thunder
and a light QPF was assigned to this weather event.

Although Maximum temperatures will range from zero to ten degrees
below normal for this time of year during the extended forecast
period, minimum temperatures should hold near normal levels.


Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Cold front from near KEVV to just east of KPAH will continue east.
Main upper trof still over the Plains will move east this
afternoon and tonight. Expect some increase in rain/shower/drizzle
activity with its approach. Generally MVFR sct-bkn conditions with
IFR possible at times primarily with precipitation. Should clear
out from west to east after 06z tonight through tomorrow morning.
Generally NW winds 10 to 20 kts post front.


IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.


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