Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271945
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The 12Z models are in good agreement with the synoptic situation
through Saturday night, but there are some differences in the
sensible weather over the weekend.

Surface high pressure will gradually shift eastward out of the
region, as a mid/upper-level trough pushes east southeast into the
region by Saturday. South winds will develop over most of the
region Friday and continue through at least Saturday night. The
weak cold front associated with the mid/upper-level trough is
expected to stall out and eventually dissipate before reaching our
area.

The south winds will lead to a nice warm up Friday into Saturday,
both for highs and lows. With a relatively dry airmass over the
region, would normally lean toward the warm side of guidance for
highs, but guidance has been too warm in our hot stretches so far
this summer, so will stay closer to the consensus for now. We
should climb to near normal Friday and above normal Saturday. Some
90 degree readings will be possible Saturday.

Still have a sliver of slight chance PoPs along the northwest edge
of the region from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois on
Saturday, as the upper-level system enters the region, but really
expect that the entire area will remain dry. Have slight chances
over most of the region Saturday night, as the GFS, in
particular, is generating some QPF over the region.

Decided to ignore the 12Z NAM`s QPF over the southern Pennyrile
Friday night and Saturday. Not real keen on any development Friday
night, but if there is enough low-level moisture, there could be
some healthy instability to play with down there Saturday
afternoon. Will leave it dry to match our neighbors in that
region, but won`t be surprised if a chance is eventually added to
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The med range models depicted departing ewd-moving shrtwv energy
aloft in the PAH forecast area during the latter half of the
weekend. This area of lower mid level heights is shown to combine
with a weak low over the Gulf, producing an overall "weakness" in
the mid level ridge over the srn CONUS. In addition, anti-cyclonic
flow aloft (carrying Erika) over the sern CONUS is expected to push
some deep moisture nwd through TN and nwd. This arrangement may
allow some showers and tstms to develop in the heat of the day on
Sun, mainly in the ern half of our region. Some of this convection
may linger into Sun night, but exactly where is a guess.

The weakness in the ridge will continue well into next week. The
models had slightly different placement of "valleys" in the ridge
from time to time. However, there appears to be enough (capping)
warm air aloft after Mon to preclude even slight chance PoPs through
Day 7 (Thu), though it will not be impossible for an isold shower or
tstm do develop somewhere in the region. Confidence in this part of
the forecast is limited. At this time, the presence of Erika on the
East Coast is not expected to alter our weather, though it could if
the predicted path changes.

Expect near seasonable temps and summer humidity during the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Surface high pressure will be gradually loosening its grip on the
region through the 18Z TAF period. Northeast to east winds aob
10kts this afternoon will become light and variable if not totally
calm tonight, and then a south or at least southeast wind will
develop Friday morning. The only potential for non-VFR conditions
will be the possibility of more patchy fog at KCGI late tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS



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