Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221627
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

It looks like isolated patches of visibility restricting fog may
occur at times for a county or two in our east, and we`ll handle
that with gridded and short fuse mention, but avoid any headlines.
Or so is the plan at this writing.

After the upper trof passage early this morning, we see Surface
High pressure ridge across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
river valleys today. This will give some more sunshine and begin a
warming trend that will last onward through the coming week ahead.

We reach upper end 70s today and tomorrow and may start to flirt
with some 80s too. Lower 80s are reached for highs by Tuesday and
will be sticking around awhile. Similarly for lows, 50s another
night or two gradually nudge up into the 60s thereafter and hold
for the foreseeable future.

Along with the warming comes some moisture transport that results
in a return chance of pcpn to the forecast. While chances appear
as early as Monday night in our far western Ozark SEMO counties,
they gradually spread eastward over the ensuing 24 hours,
expanding region wide by Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term continues to be rather mundane as models continue to
show generally southwesterly flow at 500 mb through Sunday. With
really no surface features to latch onto, we will just need to
continue with the chance type pops through the extended until we see
the whites of its eyes so to speak, and that will come into better
view as we models gain a better handle on individual pertubations,
which right now, are pretty weak/minor. Therefore its hard to
pinpoint timing and coverage of activity. The good thing is, the
entire period will not a washout by any means. But given the degree
of moisture, heavy rainfall is possible with some of the storms.

Temperatures will be at or above normal for the entire period with
highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s. Winds will
stay southerly and kinda breezy each day as well as the gradient
remains tight across the area. We will also be seeing more humid
conditions which will push heat indices close to 90 degrees on
certain days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Through Monday morning, P6SM, SKC, light winds.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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