Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 112033
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
233 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Nice new model and collaborative consensus incorporates a faster
incoming speed of the freezing airmass at the surface. This will
result in a mid evening transition in our west, overnight across
the bulk of the region, and late tonight even in our farthest
eastern and southeastern counties. The ice will then continue its
transition to snow/sleet through early Friday, with significant
ice and snow accumlutions in the better/higher qpf air along/east
of the Mississippi river. WPC 20 percent outlook increased to a 40
percent chance of quarter inch ice amounts or better, east of the
Mississippi river, where 1 to 2 inches of snow/sleet on top of
that, with the potential for higher amounts further east, still
existent. Therefore, the Watch there was transitioned to a
Warning, while the northwest most counties in SEMO transitioned to
an Advisory. We`ll see the event end from northwest to southeast,
from midday to mid evening on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Lower mid level heights and an arctic surface high in the vicinity
of the PAH forecast area will be conducive to more frigid temps over
the weekend. Some breaks in the clouds may come out Sat night in
between mid level impulses, resulting in lows ranging from the
single digits to the middle teens.

The models indicated increasing clouds Sunday from the west with
the approach of another mid level shortwave and its attendant sfc
low passing by just to the north. Despite brief warm advection Sun
afternoon and Sun night, the atmospheric column should be cold
enough for almost all snow, lingering into Monday as a cold front
sweeps rapidly through our region. A brief wintry mix may occur
near the AR/TN borders Mon afternoon. The brevity of this event
translates to an inch or less of total snowfall over most of the
region, with the possible exception of along the Wabash valley,
where another half inch may occur. Western parts of southeastern
MO may not receive any snowfall with this event. Model consensus
appeared quite good with this event, thus confidence of the
numbers was quite high. However, this will be Day 5, so the
forecast is still subject to change.

Increasing surface pressure and strong northerly winds aloft will
provide more frigid readings for the PAH forecast area into
midweek. As the parent low digs toward the eastern seaboard, some
wraparound cloudiness will be most prominent east of the MS
River. As the flow aloft relaxes Thursday, there should be a
modest rebound of temps/ dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

A strong cold front will sweep through the region. Ahead of the
front, southerly winds, initially gusty, are expected to settle
down temporarily to about 10 knots or less. Mostly VFR/MVFR
conditions are expected ahead of the front in showers. The fropa
wind shift will occur at KCGI in the mid evening, KPAH/KEVV
around midnight, and at KOWB soon thereafter. Wind speeds
sustained into the 20s kts overnight and gusting as high as 30 kts
is possible mainly west of the MS River. Expect sustained winds
and gusts to be somewhat less elsewhere. Widespread rain overnight
will steadily change to a wintry mix, then eventually snow. IFR
conditions are most likely overnight over western KY and
southwestern IN, with the wintry mix lingering into the mid
morning Fri there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Friday
     for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Friday
     for MOZ112-114.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Friday
     for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Friday
     for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$



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