Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 050816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MOZ112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY


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