Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281743

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Will let the Flash Flood Watch continue to expiration at 00Z.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Updated short term forecast to cancel all of Flash Flood Watch
except for counties along the AR border. Heaviest rain risk
continues to shift farther south and east.


.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 259 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Pacific moisture will continue to interact with a slow moving cold
front today. Overrunning rains will continue on the cool side of the
front...especially along and south of the Ohio River. Chose to trim
off the northern portion of the flash flood watch, where rain
amounts should be lighter. Believe any heavier rainfall amounts will
be confined a bit closer to the surface boundary. Will continue the
rest of the watch through the afternoon, though current thinking is
that rains may taper off in the afternoon. Temperatures from near 60
to the lower 60s ahead of the cold front will fall quickly into the
40s behind the front. Once temps fall off this morning, they will
likely remain nearly steady through the rest of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Models show the front will extend across southeast portions of the
PAH forecast area by 00z Sunday, then just southeast of our region
by 00z Monday. ECMWF and the Canadian are in pretty good
agreement and are more consistent than the latest GFS, which
pushes the front farther southeast and dries us out quite a bit
for Sunday night into Monday. Prefer the wetter ECMWF and Canadian
solutions. Waves moving along the front will continue to produce
rain through the remainder weekend, with the best chances across
our southeast counties in closer proximity to the front. We will
continue with likely to categorical pops in our south, to chance
and slight chance pops for our northern counties through Sunday
night. Clouds/rain and light northerly winds will keep diurnal
temperature swings pretty small Saturday night into Sunday night,
with lows in the upper 30s north to upper 40s southeast, and highs
Sunday in the upper 40s north and west to the lower 50s southeast.

On Monday into Tuesday, the surface low will move from the Central
Plains into the Great Lakes region. This will finally help push
the front eastward, and rain chances will decrease from west to
east Monday into Monday night, with just some lingering small
chances in our far eastern counties Tuesday morning. Winds
shifting to the south to southwest in our region around the low
on Monday into Tuesday will help temperatures climb into the 50s
area wide.

Surface high pressure building to our west early in the work week
will slide eastward by mid week. This will keep our region dry
through the end of the week. This will also finally shift our
winds to the northwest to north. Temperatures will drop off to a
little below seasonal normals for Wednesday, moderating a little
for the end of the work week.


Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

IFR ceilings are prevalent across the region and all indications
are that they will only get worse, with LIFR ceilings expected
tonight. The light to moderate rains will continue into the
evening and then begin to taper off overnight into Sunday.
Persistent northerly breezes should allow visibilities to become
unrestricted once the rain comes to an end. Ceilings may lift a
category by late morning, but wouldn`t count on it at this time,
especially at KOWB.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ108>110-112-



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