Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 041734
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONFIDENCE IN A WET PERIOD CONTINUES RATHER HIGH AS A MID /UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY PM/THU
TIME FRAME...THO THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. MAKES IT QUITE
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY WED
EVENING...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM POINT TO AT LEAST
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FAME.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS ALSO RATHER
MURKY...BUT IN GENERAL FEEL THAT DRIER IS BETTER WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAMP UP A BIT FROM THE WEST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ON FRIDAY...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE TRIED TO PINPOINT SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS THE MAIN
IMPACT AREA. THE 00Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH GENERATES
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. BUT THAT SOLUTION DOES LOOK A
BIT EXAGGERATED/OVERDONE. WILL FOCUS HIGHER POPS IN SEMO FOR NOW.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A QUESTION MARK BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS THAT ACTUALLY KEPT FRIDAY TOTALLY DRY IN THE
WAKE OF THE WED-THU SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...IF IT FORMS.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH...WE WILL
STILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MODELS TRY TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF TO OUR NORTHWEST.
TRYING TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THIS
NEVERENDING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...MIGHT TAKE A FEW DAYS TO
RESOLVE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END POPS AREA WIDE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SFC ON
SATURDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE 925MB-850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
20S. BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DECIDING HOW FAR EAST TO
BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT TRIES TO BUILD A BIT OVER THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH COOLER
READINGS NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE AREA BETWEEN KCGI/KPAH AND KEVV/KOWB. LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSRA EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT WIND SHOULD PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH SHRA/TSRA JUST BEYOND THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.