000
FXUS63 KPAH 250757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TAKES
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. MINOR IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS...ENHANCING THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LEANED CLOSER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTION FOR POPS/WEATHER...AS MEAN WARM FRONTAL ZONE PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
PUSH THE MEAN BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AS UPPER RIDE
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SHARPER LAPSE RATES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION SCHEME IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE MOST
PART...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS TYPICALLY HAVING THE
PROPENSITY TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA A BIT TOO
QUICKLY...DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHER THAN A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CW