Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140047
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
648 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Active weather is in store for the region through the short term
period with multiple round of rain expected. For this afternoon,
clouds have cleared or at least become scattered for most. However,
they will be on the increase again tonight as moisture advects in
from the south and west and a shortwave approaches. Rain showers
will develop to the south and spread across the Heartland after
midnight. These showers will diminish through the morning hours
Wednesday from west to east. Rainfall amounts up to half an inch
will be possible with this activity.

There looks to be a relative lull in precipitation Wednesday night
into Thursday, though scattered showers will still be possible.
Thursday is expected to be warm and breezy. Sustained winds of 15-20
mph with gusts to 30 mph are expected. This will drive high
temperatures into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

More widespread precipitation is then expected to develop Thursday
night and continue into the morning hours on Friday as a strong cold
front moves through. High temperatures on Friday may be in the
morning for many with temps falling into the 30s through the
afternoon hours. The rainfall should come to and end by Friday
afternoon. Another half an inch to an inch of rain will be possible
with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The unsettled patter will continue through the long term period.
Forecast confidence through the weekend is a bit on the lower side.
The operational runs of the European and Canadian models advertise
rain moving in from the south early Saturday and continuing through
the day. The operational GFS keeps everything suppressed to the
Tennessee Valley, but the ensembles show varying amounts of
precipitation possible. Given the uncertainty, will keep low pops in
through the weekend. If this does pan out, there could be a brief
wintry mix during the overnight hours, but this should have little
impact as temps will warm above freezing during the day.

More widespread rainfall then looks to develop and move in from the
southwest on Monday into Tuesday. This could bring another
potentially soaking round of rain. With all the rain falling over
the area and upstream, flooding of rivers will continue to be an
issue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 648 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

An upper level disturbance will quickly head northeastward toward
the region tonight. IFR cigs are forecast to expand from southwest
to northeast, from late evening on. LIFR cigs are quite likely, and
could linger well into the daylight hours Wed. The cigs should be
accompanied by rain showers increasing in coverage through the night
and diminishing west-to-east during the day Wed. A few lightning
strikes are possible mainly in western KY toward daybreak, but there
was not enough confidence to include in the TAFs. Confidence in the
visibility forecast was less than for the cig forecast. For now, we
will continue with IFR vsbys in rain showers and fog, with LIFR
vsbys possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EER
LONG TERM...EER
AVIATION...DB


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