Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160414
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1114 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For aviation section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

A rather uneventful weather pattern is expected through Monday
night. Little if any rainfall is expected. Highs will generally be
in the upper 80s to around 90, with lows in the mid 60s to near
70.

Weak surface high pressure over our region will bring lots of
clear sky and light winds through Sunday. Some scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds are likely Sunday, but otherwise there is little
indication of any cloudiness. A little patchy fog could occur
around sunrise.

The pattern is not quite as clear-cut Sunday night into Monday
night. The models show two 500 mb shortwaves sliding southward
across the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley on the front side of
the Plains ridge. A cold front associated with the first shortwave
will swing southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday night.
Although this front will be very weak, both the 12z nam and gfs
indicate a line of convection will make it down to the Lower Ohio
Valley on Sunday night. The 12z ecmwf holds off on precip in our
area. The forecast will follow the model blend initialization,
which means there will be a slight chance pop along the I-64
corridor.

The second shortwave will slide south across Kentucky on Monday,
once again accompanied by some qpf in the models. It appears the
best chance will remain to the north and east of the Lower Ohio
Valley. The forecast will remain dry, in line with the model blend
initialization.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The main long term impact will be hot, humid weather for the
duration. Maximum afternoon heat index values will push Heat
Advisory Criteria (105F) in some areas, especially Wednesday through
Friday. This is in response to a strong mid level high building
across the central U.S. and extending east across our area. We
generally went with a EC/ECENS MOS, GFS MOS blend for Wednesday
through Friday high temps. Mid 90s highs (at least) can be expected.
The GFS/GEFS is not as hot on Tuesday. The CMC and GFS are a tad
lower with h9/h8 temps than the warmer EC. So we split the
difference for Tuesday highs.

We will not have PoPs in for Tuesday through Thursday. Having said
that, there are subtle signals in the models for isolated
convection, especially Wednesday. The NAM has something across west
KY for Tuesday afternoon. Low confidence in occurrence and likely
limited coverage (if any forms at all) precludes a mention until a
better signal is established. All of the models suggest the high
will be less of an influence Friday through Saturday. This coupled
with increased moisture and instability in the models means we will
carry low chance PoPs for convection during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

High pressure over our region will produce light winds and mainly
clear skies through Sunday evening. The only cloudiness will be
some diurnal cumulus clouds, mainly of the scattered variety above
4k feet. With clear and calm conditions late tonight, expect some
mvfr vsbys in shallow ground fog around sunrise.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM



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