Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
243 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Models show a surface low over northern Illinois at 18z Friday,
with a cold front extending into the Ozark foothills of southeast
Missouri. Models indicate the front will move across the PAH
forecast area Friday afternoon into Friday evening. GFS hints that
we could see a few showers in our northwest counties with a weak
pre-frontal trof Friday morning, and included some slight chances
for showers in a few of our southwest Illinois counties before

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and just ahead of the front by mid afternoon and will quickly
spread east. The time window of the main thunderstorm activity
looks to be from 20z-03z, with showers and storms ending from
west to east during the late afternoon into early evening. The
latest SPC outlook has a Slight Risk of severe storms along and
east of a line from West Salem Illinois, to Mount Vernon Indiana,
to Madisonville Kentucky to Elkton, with areas east of a
Carbondale Illinois to Clinton Kentucky line in a Marginal Risk.

Ahead of the cold front, we will have one more incredibly warm
day with temperatures around 20 degrees above seasonal normals.
Dry weather and much cooler temperatures can be expected behind
the front as high pressure builds westward into our region.
Temperatures on Saturday will be 20 to 25 degrees colder than
Friday, with readings falling below freezing for Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Model discontinuity continues to hamper confidence next week.

By Sunday the surface high will have moved east of the area allowing
a southerly flow at the surface to return. This will allow for a
warming trend to return. In fact we should well above normal at
least through the first half of next week. It appears a surface low
will develop along the front range of the CO rockies and progress
eastward into our region Sunday night. The GFS run is much more
aggressive than most other models with a system Sunday evening. The
slightly more stable ECMWF is much less intense with substantially
less available moisture. This is possibly because of the more zonal
flow or slightly southwest flow aloft. While the GFS brings in a
significant short wave. Thus the more qpf that it generates compared
to other models. The timing is not that much of spread but intensity
is in much disarray among the models. Now after this system is where
the models diverge the most. Another system approaches for mid week
bringing a stronger cold front through late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. With this one the ECMWF is stronger than the GFS which is
the exact opposite of the Sunday night system. So confidence really
decreases with this system with little continuity and run to run flip
flops of the models solutions. However there is agreement of a cold
front moving through with rain chances. Would prefer to stay away
from likely but that will depend on the forecast builder output and
collaboration.  By Thursday models agree high pressure will return
to the area with cooler temperatures and dry conditions.


Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

South winds at 8 to 15 kts with higher gusts will stay in this
general range overnight, then increase after 13z to around 15 kts
with gusts of 25 to 30 kts due to an approaching cold front. VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. Much of our
afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate after sunset, with mainly
high or mid clouds overnight.




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