Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 162334
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

Updated aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Going forecast on track. Clearing will continue this afternoon and
early evening. Finally seeing eastward progression as the SFC-H9
flow has become westerly. HiRes models may be a bit too slow.
Otherwise dry weather through the forecast period. A weak, dry
front still slated to come through Friday. Will reach into the 70s
Friday, followed by cooler 60s Saturday in the fronts wake. Not
much in the way of cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

High pressure will be moving east of our region Sunday into
Sunday night, then models show a weak cold front moving across the
PAH forecast area on Monday. Latest ECMWF moves it through dry,
while GFS generates light QPF in our northern counties. Previous
runs were opposite of these solutions. Latest GEM moves it through
dry, and prefer going with a rain free passage with very dry air
in place. Beyond Monday, upper level ridging will keep our region
in a quiet weather pattern through next week. Temperatures will
remain unseasonably cool Sunday, then a return of light southerly
flow Sunday night will help temperatures rebound to near seasonal
readings for Monday. Conditions will cool back down behind the
cold front for Tuesday and the remainder of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

A few high clouds will be around for the 00Z TAF period, mainly
around sunrise. Expect light swrly/sswrly sfc winds overnight, then
the winds will pick up more of a wrly component during the daylight
hours Fri due to the passage of a dry cold front. Gusts to 20 knots
are possible by mid afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DB








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