Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 021105
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
505 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Convection developing 1-3 hours slower than previously forecast
with earlier model runs. Slowed the onset of thunderstorms beyond
Southeast Missouri/Southwest Illinois until after 15z (9 am CST)
as low level instability/moisture gradient gradually feeds
northward toward the WFO PAH forecast area. With the slightly
longer lag time, increased max temperatures up by 1 degree,
placing several locations above 70 degrees. Model guidance has
been underestimating both surface winds and temperatures
(undergoing surface based warm advection) the last several days.

Have been utilizing the NAM-WRF (NMM version) as the preferred
template for the movement and evolution of the convective clusters
and lines today and into this evening. Limited the mention of
damaging wind in the grids to the convective lines with leading
surface dewpoints in the 60-62 degree Fahrenheit range, then
limiting coverage of severe potential during the evening hours. As
the line and flow aloft become more parallel, slowed the movement
of the rain in the 04z-09z (10 pm Tuesday - 3 am Wednesday)
Wednesday time frame. There could be some water issues over parts
of Todd/Muhlenberg/Southeast Christian areas after midnight.

Have mixed confidence on Wind Advisory wind gusts, outside of the
convective (thunderstorm) elements. The combination of thermal
profile capping at the onset and technical issues with the grid
forecast application this morning limited a good assessment of
likely wind gust speeds. Kept with the previous forecast after 18z
(noon) today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Model preference was a blend of the ECMWF and GFS through
Saturday, then the ECENS/GEFS for Sunday through Monday given the
complexity of the upper pattern days 6-7. Dry Friday through
Saturday with surface high pressure in control. Sunday should be
dry as well. A trof is forecast to dig southeast from the northern
Rockies into the nation`s mid section. This development, along
with an uptick in moisture with an associated surface front, means
we will carry a slight chance of rain Monday. Slight chance
rain/snow Monday night as colder air draws in from the northwest.
Overall, temps at or slightly above normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 505 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Convection should continue this morning as a warm front lifts
north across the area. East winds will become SSE and increase
with gusts over 20 kts later this morning and afternoon. Cold
front should be to about a KMVN-KPAH line by 00z, with the chance
of thunderstorms continuing along the front. It should clear the
KEVV-KOWB areas by 02/03z or so. Could be MVFR/IFR vsbys and MVFR
cigs with convection. Quiet weather later tonight with SSW winds
diminishing to less than 10 kts.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ081>083-085>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ087-108>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


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