Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KPAH 171500

1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

The thunderstorms with the heaviest rainfall will continue to
shift east out of the Pennyrile this morning, as more stratiform
rains shift east across southwest Indiana. Not confident in how
much re-development there will be this afternoon into the evening
hours. The convection-resolving models indicate scattered activity
at best over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Scaled back
PoPs behind the current activity for the next several hours. Also
made adjustments to cloud andtemperature trends through the day.
Figure that most areas will come close to the original high
temperature forecast, it will just take awhile for northern and
eastern areas to get there.

UPDATE Issued at 528 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Grids in fairly good shape. Will make a few tweaks to PoPs through
the early morning. Overall, flooding has not been a concern. The
exception has been a small area of Hamilton County, IL and points
just north and west of there. That area will need to be monitored
over the next few hours.

Will update the Aviation section for the 12z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Mid level circulation seen near KSTL with deep convection over
portions of southern IL headed for southwest IN. Pockets of heavy
rain, but no flooding concerns expected with this initial round.

The mid level circulation will continue to drift ESE today, with
a sfc low near KEVV by 00z. Best chances of convection will
continue to accompany the low, with additional development
expected with destabilization today, especially across the E/SE
half of the area. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, best
chance southern sections. Maybe a pulse storm that could produce
strong winds. Nothing major. Temps will be tricky again today
given chaotic cloud cover and convection. Played it close to
Raw Model output. Adjustments likely.

With the departure of the low tonight, PoPs will continue to
decrease from west to east. There may be enough moisture and
destabilization over the east 2/3 of the area Monday for
convection. Have low chance PoPs to cover that. Monday night may
be dry for the most part. Have slights left in, mainly for any
departing convection in the evening east, and possibly added
development toward Tuesday morning from the west. Chance of
convection will continue Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not much to
focus on, but there is residual moisture and instability. Hard to
rule activity out completely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Early Wednesday, an upper level low will be positioned over the
Great Lakes. The atmospheric profile will be moist and unstable
enough to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Through the remainder of the period, an upper level ridge will build
over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. This will help to
stabilize the atmosphere as the tropospheric profile undergoes a
drying trend. Consequently, any slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be suppressed into far eastern portions of the
forecast area Thursday into the weekend. Hot weather fanatics who
may feel cheated by the cooler than average summer will have reason
to rejoice as high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to
mid 90s each day. Unfortunately, this will yield peak afternoon heat
index readings near the century mark.


Issued at 528 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Upper system moving into srn IL, continues to generate convection
early this morning, mainly east of a KSAR-KMDH-KM30 line. Will have
a few hours of convection at KEVV and KOWB. Nothing on radar west,
so for KPAH and KCGI, will take redevelopment. Convection easily
drops vsbys to around 1 mile or so, with ocnl MVFR cigs, heavy rain.
This will continue to be the case with any convection through the
day. Best chances of convection will gradually shift east with time
through tonight. Winds will generally be either S or SW, but light.
Variable and gusty within thunderstorm activity.




UPDATE...DRS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.