Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 152351
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Updated the grids, to reflect slight tsra chance all locations
through the evening. Greatest surface based instability is west of
I-55. However using Best LI computation off the RUC depicts
adequate elevated instability all locales. Doesn`t mean it will
amount to much. But will have it covered. Kept coverage wording
as isolated for now. Will have to tweak the winds a bit. Temps and
dew points in decent shape. Added mention of patchy light drizzle
post front aft 06z, as 1000-925mb rh really picks up. This lines
up with what our neighboring offices to our North and West have as
well in the grid depiction.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

It will not be a very clean frontal passage with respect to
ceilings and visibilities for the 00z Tuesday TAF package. The
dynamics along the front will be more discrete this evening,
allowing for a sharp transition from VFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibilities along the frontal zone.

The big question lies on whether the low level ridge will work
east or south toward 12z Tuesday. This would impact the degree and
speed of cold air advection and transition to higher ceilings/
cloud bases between 12z and 18z Tuesday.

For now, leaned closer to the GFS solution versus the NAM
solution, especially in the treament of precipitation chances and
ceilings around 12z Tuesday. Will need to monitor what develops
over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening and
adjust accordingly.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CN
AVIATION...Smith







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