Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160816
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The main forecast concern in the near term is the chance for
showers and thunderstorms across mainly southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois on Sunday and much of the forecast area on
Monday.

The upper level weather pattern through early next week will be
characterized by a trough in the western U.S. with a ridge
extending from the St. Lawrence Valley south across the Tennessee
Valley to the Gulf Coast states. The ridge is forecast to flatten
somewhat by Sunday and especially Monday as weak impulses of
energy impinge on its windward side.

The end result in a continuation of the dry and unseasonably warm
conditions today. A small chance for showers and thunderstorms
enters western portions of southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois on Sunday and much of the area on Monday as a weak
frontal boundary drops south into the area in response to weak
upper level energy streaming over Missouri and Illinois. Even
during this time, much of the period will likely end up dry.
Coverage of activity should be widely scattered to scattered at
best.

With the upper level ridge just east of the region and southerly
flow in the low levels, warmer than normal temperatures are
forecast to persist through the period. Highs should range through
the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

At the beginning of the long term period, a large scale trof will be
taking shape over the northwest U.S. with an unsettled, modest
westerly flow across our part of the country, due in part to
persistent southerly flow on the west side of high pressure. Above
average temps and humidity levels will be in place. Our best chance
PoPs will be Tuesday into Wednesday, and enhanced during the day
given the unsettled nature of the flow. Thursday through Friday, as
the large west U.S. trof moves east, riding is forecast to develop
from the eastern Great Lakes, southwest across our region to the
Gulf Coast. This will limit PoPs to mainly diurnal, slight chances
in the afternoon, along with continued above normal temperatures and
humidity levels. Confidence is too low to be pin point with high
resolution PoPs Days 4 and beyond. Kept PoPs simple, and either
slight or low chance until a better signals and higher confidence
are established. Model preference was a 12z EC/00z GFS blend. The
00z CMC is noticeably drier throughout the long term part of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Once patchy fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions are
forecast through tonight as high pressure remains in control.
Scattered cumulus should develop once again by late morning and
last through the afternoon. Winds will be southerly at 5 to 10
knots during the daylight hours, subsiding to near calm at night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP


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