Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 230435
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

Isolated showers across southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky
will come to an end as we lose our heating late this afternoon and
the upper low pushes off farther to our east.

Surface high pressure building in off to our northeast and and
upper level ridge sliding from the Plains across the eastern U.S.
will give us dry and pleasant conditions through the weekend.
Temperatures will remain a little above seasonal readings tonight
into Saturday night. A return of southerly winds on Sunday will
warm temperatures to around 10 degrees above normal Sunday and
Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

Models are coming into better agreement on our unsettled weather
pattern for next week. GFS, ECMWF and the Canadian have all slowed
down the onset of precipitation for the beginning of the work
week, keeping us generally dry Monday into Monday night. Models
show a warm front off to our north on Monday, gradually sinking
south into the PAH forecast area on Tuesday. Precipitation looks
fairly scattered and light along this front with low pressure
still well off to our west. However, models also show some pretty
decent LI`s across our area Tuesday, so thunderstorms will be a
good bet with any development.

The low over the Central Plains will move east northeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday night, which will lift the front back
northward. By late Wednesday into Wednesday night, both GFS and
ECMWF bring the associated cold front east into our region, which
is when we should see our best chances of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms. GFS and ECMWF timing is much better agreement
than past runs, so confidence is increasing. Went with high chance
to likely pops Wednesday and Wednesday night. Models both show
increasing CAPE values and continuing LIs of -5 or lower late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday night. However, the frontal
passage timing across our region right now looks like it will not
be prime time for widespread severe potential, but this will be
something to keep an eye on for the next few days. A few showers
and storms will linger into Thursday, mainly for our eastern
counties.

Opted to go dry Thursday night, then models have gone back and
forth a bit on some precipitation chances for Friday. The ECMWF
00z and the GFS 06z runs run brought back a large swath of
precipitation into our region Friday, while the latest runs keep us
dry. Went with some just some slight chances of showers and storms
for now.

Southerly winds for the first part of the work week will keep our
temperatures well above normal through Thursday. The air behind
the cold front really is not much cooler, so readings only drop
off around 5 degrees for Thursday night and Friday, which keeps us
a little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

Latest numerical model guidance still suggesting some MVFR fog
visibilities between 09z to 13z Saturday time period at KEVV and
KOWB. Otherwise VFR conditons should dominate the entire forecast
period, with only gradual wind shifts.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith



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