Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 172331
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A weak frontal system will continue to sink south into Dixie
tonight, allowing a weak ridge axis to slip farther southeast
toward the Ohio Valley region. This should bring an end to most of
the precipitation during the night. Main thunderstorm chances
will stay off to out south here the air is much more unstable.

Minor ridging aloft commences on Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, and
as winds turn more southerly between the sfc high off to the east
and the next cold front dipping south through the Plains. This
will allow for generally rainfree conditions, with only a small
chance of mainly diurnal afternoon thunderstorms. With the
southerly flow, temperatures will be on the rise into mid week.
Most locations will make it into the lower half of the 80s by
Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Two systems will impact the region during this period, one on
Thursday and another over the weekend. Model agreement is pretty
good for the first, but varies more for the the weekend system.

A mid level shortwave trough will progress across the Great Lakes on
Thursday. A cold front will likewise push south into our region
resulting in showers and storms developing. Potential is there for
some strong storms as several favorable ingredients look to be in
place (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, 0-6km shear of 35-40 kts, and
dewpoints into the low to possibly mid 60s). Will have to monitor
this in the coming days, but would anticipate SPC to eventually have
a marginal risk for portions of our area if current trends hold.
Models do differ on how far south the front makes it before becoming
quasi-stationary. GFS continues to push it all the way south of the
area, while ECMWF and Canadian hang it up further north near our
southern border. These 2 models suggest overrunning precip Thu night
into Fri over southern half of region, whereas the GFS keeps us dry
with high pressure moving in.

Another shortwave digs south into central/southern Plains by later
Friday. A sfc low develops and translates east/northeast towards our
area. There continues to be some timing and track differences among
the models, which will dictate how fast the system moves in and thru
our area. Seems like the bulk of the precip should occur Fri night
thru Sat night with a gradual decrease on Sunday as the backside
wrap around affects us. Depending on how far north the sfc low
tracks, a portion of the area may become more engulfed in the warm
sector and have some potential at a few strong storms. West KY would
be most favored for this. Should have some decent QPF totals, as
guidance showing 1-2 inches with some higher amounts. As the system
departs, dry conditions should be seen Sunday night into Monday, as
high pressure settles into the area.

Temperatures will be above normal on Thurs, exceeding 80 in many
locations. Then cooler conditions arrive Fri as plenty of cloud
cover and northerly sfc winds take hold, keeping temps in the 60s.
Weekend temps look to be below normal with highs generally in the
60s, but may struggle to get there up around Mt Vernon, IL.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

The northern edge of the mvfr cigs was just north of a kcgi-kpah
line as of 23z. This edge will remain very close to the kcgi/kpah
areas through the evening, and the mvfr deck at both sites should
vary from scattered to broken early tonight. Later tonight, the
effects of nocturnal cooling will promote a slight northward advance
of the mvfr cigs, but not as far north as the kevv/kowb areas. Those
sites will likely keep vfr cigs, but some fog is possible there by
early morning. Fog will not be mentioned in the tafs at this point.

On Tuesday, the mvfr cigs should remain persistent at kpah/kcgi much
of the day. There is a chance of some ifr conditions early in the
day, but not enough to warrant inclusion in the tafs. Further north,
the kevv/kowb areas should be mainly vfr. As winds become south,
mvfr cigs will likely spread north to the kevv/kowb areas late in
the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...MY



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