Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190347
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1047 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Above average confidence continues in the short term due to
decent model agreement.

High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry through Thursday. Thursday night precipitation chances
are expected to spread northeastward into the southwestern and
southern sections of our CWA as the next system lifts out of the
southern plains.

The highest probability of precipitation appears to be on Friday as
the surface low associated with the aforementioned system slides by
just to the south of our region. Recent model runs have trended to
shift the main axis of precipitation slightly to the south and east
on Friday. Even though the nitty gritty details among models vary
somewhat, most of them are showing the same trend. If this trend
continues, precipitation probabilities will likely need to be
reduced in future forecasts.

As the low moves off to the east Friday evening, precipitation
chances will diminish from the west accordingly.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

above average confidence in the extended.

We will be in a northerly flow at the beginning of the extended but
will soon be under the influence of a blocking omega type high. This
is the reason for the higher confidence in the extended. Typically
this scenario is delineated by a high pressure center over the
central US with lows along the east and the west. This synoptic
scenario usually lasts for several days before breaking down or
advecting eastward. With high pressure over us expect a warming
trend to take place in the extended with above normal temperatures
expected next week. As we approach the end of the extended...day 6
and 7...confidence decreases as the high is forecast to break down
as a weak perturbation with a surface reflection of a cold front is
progged to move into the region. The models struggle with the
eastward progression of the aforementioned system hence the lower
confidence next week. Otherwise high confidence in a dry weekend
with temperatures warming each day. Forecast soundings are not
profound in precip next week. However there is sufficient
instability for thunder both at the surface and aloft. CAPE`s are
around 1k j/kg2 LI`s negative 4 and K index values 35. PW`s rise to
around 1.5 but the overall soundings are not that saturated east of
the Mississippi especially.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

As high pressure overspreads the region, generally clear skies and
light ne winds will prevail.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
LONG TERM...KH



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