Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigtate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Aside from IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at the TAF sites between
09-12Z, VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast
period. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the heat of
the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to mention
explicitly with this package. Calm to light and variable winds
through most of the period will pick up out of the south AOB 5
knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith






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