Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 170916
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Latest radar trends indicate that much of the precipitation has
shifted southeast of the region early this morning. Scattered
showers still remain east of the Lakes in western Kentucky in
closer proximity to the Tennessee border. A few echoes have also
developed along the westward advancing frontal boundary in south
central Illinois, however models suggest these should remain
minimal as they shift east into southwest Indiana through
daybreak.

The low pressure center responsible for the precipitation activity
will push into the Great Lakes region today. A cold front of
Pacific origin extending from the low will continue to trudge
through the region as well. Behind the front, slightly cooler air
will take hold. Some clearing has occurred over southeast Missouri
overnight and should nudge into western Kentucky early this
morning. Despite what may be a glimpse of the sunshine early this
morning in southern and western portions of the area, abundant
sky cover should be the rule through the greater part of the day.
This will act to keep a lid on temperatures, with highs only in
the 50s across much of the area.

Partial clearing is expected tonight as drier air associated with
weak high pressure builds into the area. By Wednesday, clouds will
already be on the increase ahead of the next weather system. An
upper level low over northwestern Mexico this morning is forecast
to shift east into the central PLains by Thursday. The low is
progged to lift northeast into the Missouri River Valley by 12Z
Friday as the shortwave trough south of the low becomes negatively
tilted and pivots across the forecast area Thursday night. As a
result, the potential for showers will be on the increase from
south to north Wednesday night, with a peak in coverage Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. Elevated instability will be
marginal, but enough to support a slight chance of thunderstorms
across much of the area Thursday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Reasonable EC/GFS consensus for this forecast package. Still an
unsettled pattern through the long term. First area of energy lifts
north of the area Friday, diminishing PoPs for the afternoon and
Friday night. Will carry a slight chance of showers Saturday as the
upper flow may contain some energy. The models indicate light shower
chances. Chances increase considerably Saturday night through Sunday
as an upper low reaches the southern Plains by 12z Sunday. This
feature will keep rain shower chances going through Monday as it
slowly moves east either across or just south of the CWFA. Will use
inherited blend numbers for temps. Did bump up temps a tad toward
MOS highs Friday and Saturday as those values are noticeably higher
than the blends.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1151 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Sustained surface winds up to around 12 knots will continue to veer
with the passage of a cold front overnight. The front is expected to
traverse the region from west to east by daybreak Tue. VFR cigs are
expected to generally remain that way in remaining showers in the
east, then go MVFR in the post-frontal regime. However, cigs are
expected to break up altogether over most of southeastern MO and
much of western KY Tue morning, before returning late in the TAF
period, ahead of another mid level impulse.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB



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