Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 111735
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Updated for 18Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

With low pressure and its associated cold front east of the area,
high pressure is forecast to build into the region over the next
48 hours. This will result in mainly dry conditions along with
much cooler temperatures.

Early morning satellite imagery indicated an expansive deck of low
stratus from the Mid Mississippi Valley as far south as northern
Arkansas and Tennessee. With low level moisture trapped beneath a
strong mid level inversion, the low stratus is likely to stick
around across much of the region through tonight. There may be
some partial clearing on the southern end of the stratus shield
this afternoon, which would impact mainly far southern sections of
southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. But any clearing should
be short-lived as the stratus builds southward again tonight. It
will take a shift in low level winds to the south on Thursday to
finally scour out the low level grunge.

With the increase in cloud cover, temperatures will be held down
several degrees from prior forecast. Relied heavily on NAM MET MOS
guidance, which seems to have the best handle on temperatures.
Consequently, highs today will struggle to reach the lower 60s in
many areas. Far southeast Missouri may see readings inch into the
mid to upper 60s if they are fortunate to see a little sun. Some
locations may even remain in the 50s.

The shift to low level southerly winds on the back side of the
departing high should result in more sunshine and a warming trend
Thursday and especially Friday as an upper level ridge builds
across the southeastern U.S. Highs are forecast to climb into the
lower 70s in most locations on Thursday before topping the 80
degree mark on Friday. Lows in the lower 50s the next couple of
nights should moderate closer to the 60 degree mark by Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Forecast confidence is high throughout the extended portion of this
forecast. The 00Z models continue to be in agreement in the synoptic
evolution through the period, and this agreement has been consistent
for our region over the last several model cycles.

The weekend will begin with high pressure aloft and southerly flow
at the surface, resulting in a very warm day with highs well into
the 80s Saturday. The ECMWF-based MOS guidance indicates that some
areas may even approach 90.

The upper ridge will be suppressed to our south beginning Sunday, as
a mid/upper-level short wave trough moves from the central Plains
early Sunday to the Great Lakes Sunday night. This will push a cold
front through our region at some point Sunday. There is a bit of
variety in the 00Z models on the timing of the frontal passage, but
it should be sometime Sunday or Sunday evening. The 00Z models have
a band of QPF with the cold front, and with confidence increasing,
PoPs are up to likely levels near the front Sunday afternoon and
evening.

The GFS indicates that instability may be hard to find, given a lack
of steep mid-level lapse rates to work with. Will limit thunder
mention to slight chances throughout the event, and severe weather
does not appear likely at this time.

Behind this system, the flow aloft will be nearly zonal, and surface
high pressure will settle over the region. The cool surface high
will dominate the region through next Wednesday, leading to high
temperatures near normal levels for a change next week. With the
surface high expected to be overhead Monday night, lows may not be
cool enough. Some locations may drop to near 40 degrees Tuesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A fairly thin layer of moisture will cause aviation headaches over
the next 24 hours. Low level moisture residing in a layer only
about 100 mb or so deep will remain over the area through
Thursday. Cigs are mainly MVFR and should stay that way through
tonight and into Thursday morning. Any potential breaks look to
be short lived. Winds will be light and variable by 00Z not pick
up until later on Thursday morning. Fog should not be too much of
an issue due to cloud cover. We should see skies gradually become
scattered late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours,
hopefully.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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