Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface high pressure will settle over the region today. However,
as a mid/upper level disturbance moves eastward into the Plains
tonight, moisture will begin to push northward through
TX/LA/AR/OK. Model consensus conts to keep any light precipitation
to our southwest through Friday morning. Patches of light rain
or showers should slowly spread northeast across the area mainly
Friday afternoon and Friday night. The best PoPs should be over
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Really should be a non
event tho.

Mid level ridging and southerly sfc winds should lead to a quite
mild day on Saturday. Depending on the amount of sun we manage to
get in the afternoon, could see temps touch 60 in some locations.
Stayed closer to the warmer MAV over much of the area. Friday
night will be tricky with increasing clouds and winds veering to
due south. Figure that there may be a quick drop in the northeast
and then a steady climb overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Main concerns during this period the progression of a pretty potent
storm system that will affect our region over the weekend. This system
will bring a soaking rainfall and a period of gusty winds. A few
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, depending on the exact
track of the surface low.

The main wave will be moving out of the four corners region and into
the southern Plains by 00Z Sunday. During the night on Saturday
night, this wave takes on a negative tilt as it continues to move
northeast toward the area. As this occurs, surface low pressure will
deepen as it tracks northeast across Arkansas and Missouri into the
Great Lakes region.

We should remain fairly dry Saturday evening but rather breezy as
the pressure gradient remains tight. Precipitation will start to
ease into parts of SEMO prior to 06Z Sunday and then begin to
overspread the area after 06Z into Sunday morning. Now, wind fields
are definitely strong and models are indicating sufficient moisture
(dewpoints surging well into the 50s) and instability to warrant
some concern about severe weather by Sunday morning. In fact, as the
sfc low strengthens, the 850 mb jet really ramps up by Sunday
morning. The 00z GFS indicates 850 mb winds 60-70 kt and even
higher. Could be some interesting gradient winds if these winds make
it to the sfc in any way. These winds coupled with MU capes of
around 500 j/kg, and even some hints at some sfc based instability,
spells potential trouble if it all comes to fruition Sunday morning.
This will need to be watched closely.

Once the wave swings through and moves up into the Upper Midwest by
00Z Monday, we will still have the actual sfc cold front to move
through Sunday night. So will maintain high chance POPs. Meanwhile,
another closed low dives south into the northern Plains and ends up
merging with the aforementioned wave. We will remain under the
influence of this merged upper level system Monday and Tuesday
before the trough finally moves east Tuesday night. So scattered
showers will remain a possibility at least on Monday, and dealing
with mainly cloudiness on Tuesday.

As far as temps, we should have another day of mild weather on
Sunday ahead of the front, but then a gradual cool down is expected
during the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

In the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier this evening, the
only effects will be a few clouds and a wind shift. Conditions
will remain VFR at all sites through the period, however there
could be VFR cigs at KEVV/KOWB between 10-12Z. Northwest winds
AOB 10 knots will gradually back around to the west northwest
through the day, then drop off to either calm or light out of the
northeast after 00Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP






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