Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
124 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

It should be another crips, cool night, even as High pressure
gradually migrates to the east. Humidity does start to increase in
the column tmrw, as the next weather system takes shape and makes
an approach, and light return flow slys or swlys develop. The
forcing and moisture are so weak, however, that the approach, and
passage, of this system, now slated to be in the Monday-Monday
nite time frame primarily, do not warrant any more than a slgt
chance mention 20 PoP.

Low temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight, and again
after this system passages, Tuesday night. Monday night, clouds
and waa will allow for lows to moderate thru the 50s, or even near
60 for some srn locales. Highs each day will be mainly in the 70s,
with Monday being the warmest, out ahead of the approaching front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Most of the long term period will be dominated by a continuation of
the eastern trough/western ridge pattern. This ensures that cool and
dry weather will persist into Thursday. Toward the end of the
period...the models indicate the flow pattern will become quasi
zonal. This will allow temperatures to moderate to seasonal levels
by late in the week.

As far as the daily details...
Wednesday into Thursday...surface high pressure will drift slowly
east across the Great Lakes region. This high will produce a cool
and dry northeast flow in the low levels. There is some model
disagreement concerning the timing of moisture return at 850 mb. The
00z gfs and its ensemble mean bring a very tight dew point gradient
eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The gfs even
generates qpf across southeast Missouri on the west side of the
gradient. The 00z ecmwf keeps this moisture over western Missouri.
Given the lack of model continuity...the forecast will basically
follow the previous one. However...the potential exists for a band
of cloudiness and even some showers to affect over our region Wed
into Thursday.

On Friday...there is strong model agreement that the low level flow
will become southerly as the surface high crosses the Appalachians.
A 500 mb shortwave ridge over the lower and mid Mississippi Valley
will be accompanied by dry conditions.

On Saturday...warm and humid southwest low level flow will continue
in advance of a cold front over the Missouri Valley. There are model
timing differences concerning the cold front...but there is enough
of a consensus to keep the forecast dry on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

High pressure at the surface will remain anchored over the Ohio
(and Tennessee) valleys, providing moclear skies, light winds, and
a continuation of VFR conditions thru tonight. Meanwhile, a developing
weather system will approach the terminals from the west toward
the end of the planning period, with an accompanying chance for
increasing moisture in the column on return flow slys-swlys as
the High pressure system shifts east tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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