Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 102326
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

Updated for 00Z aviation forcast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the
central Great Lakes through central Illinois and central Missouri
and into western Oklahoma. Radar shows some light showers
developing along and especially behind the front. Models are in
good agreement positioning the front along the Ohio River into
portions of southeast Missouri by 12z Friday. Models show precip
making it to the Ohio River by 06z, spreading southeast by mid
morning Friday. Where models differ is QPF amounts, with GFS
showing the most significant amounts, and ECMWF the lightest. NAM
is the middle ground, and leaned toward the NAM for amounts. CAPE
values and LI`s still indicate we will see some thunderstorms,
especially during the day Friday, but away from thunderstorms
overall amounts should be two tenths of an inch or less. Also,
better chances and the more substantial QPF will be across our
eastern counties where more moisture will be available, so went
with good chance pops east, to low to slight chance west.

ECMWF shows a bit of QPF lingering in our far eastern counties
Friday evening, while GFS and NAM keep us dry. We already had some
low pops for showers in those areas for Friday evening, so I
backed off some on both pops and coverage.

For Saturday, both NAM and ECMWF show a smattering of light QPF
across our area, while GFS and GEM keep us dry. Prefer to keep the
PAH forecast area dry for now. By Saturday night, clouds will be
on the increase ahead of our next weather system. South winds and
increasing clouds will keep temperatures very mild, with lows in
around 60 degrees, which is about 15 degrees above seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase from west to east
on Sunday as a slow moving storm system approaches from the plains.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be widespread Sunday night and
Monday as the system slowly crosses the region. Severe weather
probability with the system does not appear to be an issue at this
time. Precipitation associated with this system will taper off from
west to east Monday night. Storm total precipitation should average
between one half and one inch.

For the remainder of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be well above normal with
highs in the mid 70s. Beyond that in the wake of the aforementioned
storm system temperatures will be well below normal, however will
tend to moderate back toward normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR expected to prevail at all sites through at least 06Z. Beyond
that MVFR cigs and/or vsbys possible with VCTS/TSRA. Southerly
winds gusting up to 25-30 knots early will decrease to aob 15 knots
after 02Z, then aob 10 knots after 06Z. The front responsible for
the scattered convection overnight into tomorrow...will sag south
and dissipate throughout the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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