Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210744
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
244 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

One more day of high pressure will serve the area another heater
of around 90 degree temps, even if the amount of high clouds is
already starting to increase as Cindy makes a move toward land.
Cindy makes landfall by Thursday morning, and by then, we`ll see
these 60s dew points we`ve enjoyed creep toward 70. The influx of
moisture Thursday and Friday will increase/deepen throughout the
column, as Cindy winds its way toward the Tennessee valley. Return
pcpn chances spike Friday and Friday night, when a cold front
drops down and makes passage. It will interact with tropically
high PW airmass in place, producing rainfall totals upwards of 2
plus inches for the south/east half of the FA, with the potential
for 3-4 inches nearer the Tennessee border, just north of the
Low`s track. The track by that time is varying from run to run,
and model to model, so these amounts could vary with any slight
shifting north or south, accordingly. It does look like the pcpn
effectively winds down Friday night after fropa, as Cindy herself
likewise departs the vicinity. So after one more day of warm highs
around 90, we`ll see increasing humidity and additional
clouds/ultimately pcpn mute highs thru the 80s closing the week,
and lows similarly around 70 finish the week before falling back
thru the 60s behind the departing system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

At the beginning of the long term period, the remnants of Cindy
should be continuing to depart to the east. Most of the guidance
agrees that Saturday should be dry, but the 12Z ECMWF continued to
lag behind and indicated a small lingering chance Saturday
morning in parts of west KY, namely the southern Pennyrile. The
00Z run came in and is more in line with the rest of the models
and indicates a dry day on Saturday. Even if there is a bit of
rain that lingers, it should only be during the morning hours.

High pressure will be steadily building in at the surface over the
weekend. A large scale trough will be situated over a good part of
the Midwest and this trough deepens over our area during the latter
part of the weekend and into early next week as pertubations rotate
through. Chances for additional precipitation look marginal
according to most of the models. However, the ECMWF does not want to
let go of chances Saturday night into Sunday with another upper wave
that pushes through. However it does seem like it weakens as it
approaches and QPF has backed off from previous runs. Will leave
slight chances in, but if future runs continue to indicate the
dampening wave, dry conditions should prevail.

Below normal temperatures will be the rule during the period. We
will see low 80s for highs on Saturday but as the trough deepens
over the area Sunday and Monday, we will only see highs in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees. Not bad for mid-late June. It will also be
dry so it will feel fairly comfortable with low humidity. As upper
heights start to rise and the sfc high begins to shove eastward on
Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see the mercury start to rise into
the 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

High clouds increase this package, and begin to lower as Cindy`s
outermost remnants push northward. Little overall operational
impact expected though, with VFR conditions the rule thru the
valid times for all terminals. Spot shower activity early this
morning in the north/east (KEVV/KOWB), similar to yesterday, will
be short-lived and likely remain outside the flight terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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